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Just reread my 2nd Oct 21 post.
The only change I would make now is the 5-6p to 3-4p.
I’ve sold my last tranche this morning, the annoying thing is I nearly sold yesterday, and no, I’ll stay in. Anyway had good potential, hey ho time to move on.
Arise Martyn Ratcliffe maximum damage, wolf in the sheep pen indeed. Provisions really? No actual mention of trading revenue? Just impairments and losses then.
I predicted this after SAG built their stake.
- Take control of the board - check
- CEO notice to resign - check
- Take control of RNS communication/newsflow - check
- Highlight a problem(s) that requires an audit (paper losses) - check
- Restrict all newsflow - check
Now I'm not saying everything was rosy in the garden but can people not see that this business update is skewed to 11, to push Martyn's narrative. All he has to do is reduce newsflow now until the 12 months from the last time SAG purchased shares to takeover here for penny's. A real shame on our II's for allowing this to happen but there is more than likely a deal in the background to appease, as not one exited yet.
I can understand selling now, since losses here could be recovered (plus some) more quickly with another better investment.
But what prospects for those investors not selling now?
I think Radius summed it up well and the 57% of shareholders who voted for the board changes thought similarly too.
'The General Meeting result was a clear rejection of the TP Group Board's strategy. The Science Group strategy to create a collaboration between the companies, built around Science Group's strategic investment and the appointment of its two nominated directors, was endorsed. TP Group shareholders gave a clear mandate for the Science Group strategy which is anticipated to benefit both organisations and their shareholders.'
SAG can profit by either trying to acquire the rest of TPG shares as cheaply as possible (and all the destructive shenangins that that may entail) or they could seek to turn TPG around, boost the share price and profit from their existing share.
If we take SAG at current face value they want to do the latter. (a big 'If' i realise). If the (57%-SAG%) called it right then they would expect this to be near the low point and it'll be worth hanging around.
I'm not quite as negative as i was (relatively :)
GL
Sorry to hear you're out TT.
Many of us PI's invested here have been burnt by very poor management & a complete lack of over site for years .
What could have been a successful & profitable company has been so poorly managed for so long that it beggers belief.
SAG may well step in to take it on, but probably at no great price
Let's hope the New management can pull something out of the bag & soon.
Wishing you well with your new Investments.
Cheers R
Well my wait is over. Just sold my last tranche after some 9 years because I can't really see any cause for optimism. I was pleased when David Lyndsey came on board but the writing went on the wall for me when he said he was going. I must admit the SAG situation has not helped.
I've redistributed into other shares I hold including HDD and SRT who have much more immediate possibilities. I hope I'm wrong and recovery will happen but it's so uncertain.
All the best and good luck
Truro Trader.
iq really the last
Any predictions for when and at what price a takeover will take place?
Yes sitting on my hands too atm. I'd like to to be able to say that my inaction forms part of a rational assessment of SAGs likely actions reagarding TPG rather than my reluctance to selling now at a loss, but it isn't!
I assume that SAG will try to acquire the remainder of TPG for the lowest overall cost to themselves but not being any kind of expert in (hostile) takeovers and not being that exposed here myself, i'm happy to sit back and watch.
I also hold SAG shares so that helps too...
How's everyone this New Year?
I'm still holding ATM waiting for the 6mth time limit to expire, just wondering what the rest of you are doing?
Hi lymie
Unfortunately this share has proved to be my worst investment, by a country mile.
Good luck with next investment.
R
Sorry Radius memory not so good. Should have said posters who opposed the takeover. Sold half my holding at just over 5 sold the rest today. Science can now buy the company for what it's worth, F/A.
lymie
An open offer to vote on was never made.
R
Those of you who voted against the takeover have had their comeuppance.the share price has virtually halved and clearly without Science the company would probably have gone under. Now the company is having to pay an arrangement fee of £150k to be bailed out and there is unlikely to be any profit before 2023.
I suggest by supplying this facility and acting at arm's length they want a return on their investment. (29% stake)
What do we think is Science Groups longer term ambition here. Do they want to progress TPG as an individual company and get a return on their equity investment somehow or do they want to take the whole company eventually and if so what is the perceived plan to get it? Takeover offer eventually perhaps, though at what price?
The previous management didn't really do anything for shareholders as the SP reflects and now it seems doubt is creeping in on Science Group intervening with their recent equity stake.
I've always got soft spot for British manufacturing but that too often leads to losses in terms of equity value destruction unfortunately. I'm from the Thatcher Buy British Era. Cheers NR.
How shareholder value has been destroyed by SCIENCE group - I hope they can keep their Consultants as surely that’s where the value of the business lies or have I misunderstood that ?
The sp has fallen as I thought and am glad I sold out whilst it was still above 5p but still incurred horrible losses over many years of holding in the group. Good luck to all remaining shareholders.
http://www.tpgroupglobal.com/news-events-and-insights/insights/northstar-map-the-gap-insight
Mid December and nothing from Cenkos about TPG NOT meeting their previous revenue forecast, made on Sept 14th. Assumption would be, that with very few working days left on 2021, that TPG will meet the forecast made in September.
tpgroup has secured a one-year contract to develop a software-based emulator that will help to de-risk the integration of equipment for a multi-billion maritime defence programme.
https://twitter.com/TPGroupUK/status/1468869358277599235?t=YMHFMIxtYU8oSrCa4Qxe8Q&s=19
Well sort of reassuring but then they would say that wouldn't they.
Following the Science Group strategic investment in TP Group in August and the subsequent restructuring of that Board, the new strategy for TP Group was announced on 1 November 2021. As reported by TP Group, this strategy focuses on the UK-based Defence and Aerospace operations which contribute approximately 70% of TP Group revenue and a greater proportion of the profit contribution. The relationship between Science Group and TP Group has developed constructively in recent weeks and the Science Group Board remains positive in relation to the long term merits of the investment.
Point taken Lutra - only time will tell.
I'm sitting tight. That's my decision - If I lose money, not ideal- but won't blame anybody else. Especially someone I don't know who posts on a bulletin board :-)
Fatoomch, auditors reports the facts, but in the short-term a Board can change what these facts are, for better or worse. Plenty of companies manage to kick the can down the road, showing apparently satisfactory accounts until eventually going bust, but the opposite can just as easily be made to happen. And in the context of the potential time-frame for a take-over, audited accounts might not even need to come into it. This year's audited accounts will show the historic position, changes to financial management then provide a series of seemingly bad interim positions, depressing share value and market cap to a suitable level for an under-value takeover, long before the next set of audited accounts show a rapid and "unexpected" return to profitability.
I'm not saying that this will happen to TPG, simply responding to your suggestion that: "If SAG spend the next year running TPG into the ground with a view to picking up at a bargain price in October 2022, the damage done will be irreversible and they’ll be left with a dead duck." There are ways to get the bargain without the "dead duck". :)
In that case, Lutea, I would assume its just as easy for a board to conversely inflate and paint a far rosier picture than exists. If the company auditor disagrees- just hire a new one
Fatoomch, there is no end of ways that a malevolent Board can manufacture a short-term deterioration in the accounting position and results, without impacting on long-term company prospects. It would be as simple as altering the means of recognition for income or debt, or changing the payment arrangements for new contracts. They could even manufacture an over-trading, cash-flow crisis tomorrow, rendering the company technically insolvent. All of these would impact on share value with no real change in the true future value of the business. It's naive in the extreme to imagine that small shareholders will always get fair value in an aggressive take-over situation.