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Started: Straycat, Today 09:55
Last post: belgrano, Today 13:48
Pretty sure that crude exports to Turkey wont be resumed this year, indeed until the contract finishes next year. This is because the Iranian influence behind the government in Baghdad and SOMO is just too strong and they are trying every trick in the book to blame everyone else bar the real holdouts which is themselves.
After having the pipeline shut over a year at a cost of nearly 13Billion dollars, they have not properly negotiated on anything or any sign of give and take or even wanting exports to start. This is despite pressure from all sources, its not a case for what's good for Iraq and the Kurdish people, more like what's in it for me, as unlikely more brown envelopes are forthcoming. Wont even honour contracts, and trying to cheat the IOCs. Now blaming the IOC's.
I expect even if the IOC's agreed to slash their rightful awards they would insist on other things, like the crude has to go down the alternative pipeline , and not the Turkish constructed one.
Hopefully our company can point out an alternative way forward at the AGM. We are most certainly not out of the woods yet.
Nobody should be shorting this stock right now, unless you're stupid.
Unfortunately there are 'Stupids' out there...so what you gonna do?
Just buy more if you are a real investor and you believe in the basic proposition...or quit and take your money with you.
In the end it's all about Buy or Sell.
The rest is about judgment. And we all get that wrong from time to time...
Spot on Straycat,
Clearly if Shorters are closing positions with losses having to buy back the borrowed stock, it also means they are unlikely to short here soon, unless something significantly negative happens.
We shouldn't always expect to see an RNS until the order is filled, such as a large one at a set price to maximise shareholder benefit, so it could easily stretch into a few trading sessions. So can easily be a delayed announced purchase along with a subsequent holdings announcement RNS which might be intersession and not 07:00hrs.
Inv,
Your in the same place as ValueS, and I respect your positions. Genuinely.
Don't understand the pain you've suffered financially, and thank God!
Thing is, history should teach us stuff. But it never does.
So we have to play the future as we see it.
I personally like the front foot approach being enabled by the current Board.
Let's take it to the Market, let's state our belief in the Company we jointly own, and let's cut loose!!
Put another way...f*ck 'em.
We'll buy our Company back with or without their support.
Don't give up Inv...
A masterfull management action by our BoD, but don’t be overwhelmed just yet:
They will propose that we shareholders vote to reward them with eyewatering bonuses for this strenuous paper activity at the pending AGM.
As I said - watch and learn.
Highly likely that the brokers have a rough idea of the quantity of shorts currently being held. Actually seeing a declared decreasing quantity sends a message directly from the shorter's that they clearly believe that the share price will rise further hence they are starting to reduce exposure.
By holding off on purchases it makes their buying operations harder to read and potentially exploit. I also do wonder a little if its to help the shorter's obtain stock as well and prevent rapid overheating of price verses availability, if everyone tried to purchase at once stock to clear shorts and removal.
Better to spread out gently over a little time.
PUTUP
I did say it was an estimate, clearly a bit wide of the mark as for £/$, not so relevant, they’ve stopped buying, that is relevant. Thanks for your input.
The shorters need to understand that share buy backs can be announced at anytime now we have the cash, notice how they’ve stopped for the last few days.
If the shorts are closing its doing the buybacks for them, although i'd have made it cost them more. however gut feel is that from getting the upward trend in price moving they will push harder on the buy backs nearer the time of the agm. just creates a better environment for shareholders if its a more buoyant price, rather than have completed the 10 m buybacks only to find another shorter jumps in at the end , borrows stock and starts aggressively selling it.
$ not £
26% done as of close yesterday
Z was hired as facilitator to GKP - no doubt at insistance of his mate Hawarami, the Kurdistan minister of oil (who has a bolthole mansion on the Thames at Henley).
Both are seriously wealthy of course.
Z trousered several £million, for his tireless efforts as counsel to GKP.
On his ascension to High Office in Cameron’s govnt., he withdrew his services from GKP.
He was sorely missed.
Bloody old phone 🙄 He can't remember, and has accidentally deleted all his WhatsApp messages 🤷🏻♂️
He can't remember and has acci
Saw Nadhim Zahawi walking down Victoria Street, London , yesterday ...wasn't he part of GKP , a while ago ?
Started: Just-Another-Bot, 23 May 2024 18:07
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 23 May 2024 18:07
From ADVFN Walleye reduced their short yesterday by 200,000 shares?
Started: Straycat, 22 May 2024 13:32
Last post: Invstrat, 23 May 2024 13:46
Redirect the funds wasted in the buybacks fiasco into taking the rulers to the ICC for recovery of the growing mountain of debts we are legally entitled to.
Accountability as to where the funds which should have paid our debts ended up - will come out in the wash.
Corruption may be behind this farce - who knows !?
I'm not going to debate this with you V, because I've not had your experience and haven't suffered your pain.
I guess what I'm asking of you is that you try and look forward rather than back.
History can only teach us so much. And management change has clearly benefited GKP.
Tough call for you I understand.
Don't know what else to say really...apart from that I have absolutely no intention to offend.
I just see it as I see it.
"You’re really hung up about the delinquent debt, aren’t you?"
No I am not as I do realise it may not be recovered, just like the $x00 m that were never recovered during the ISIS years, which caused the 2016 restructuring. All I am saying that substantial further investment should be conditioned on the recovery of the past arrears. The company must stop unnecessarily hoarding cash in anticipation, or even crazier by going into debt again to fund such investments.
Best Regards ValueS
You’re really hung up about the delinquent debt, aren’t you?
I get that. So am I.
But I reckon you need to get over that in the context of GKP’s future positioning.
And you’re not addressing the more pressing issue…how does GKP navigate its future?
And sure as sh*t it mustn’t rest on the recovery of $151m delinquent debt because that is now in the ether and may or may not be recovered, either in whole or in part.
Certainly it definitely cannot be a part of the recovery plan because the recovery of that money must not be relied upon in any future strategic planning. Who knows how that will pan out? Better to treat it as a bonus that should be pursued with vigour.
There’s a new model in Town which doesn’t rely on the KRG honouring their obligations.
Because there’s a serious business to run and JH has to play what’s in front of him.
He mustn’t be distracted by delinquent debt although he certainly has a duty to drill down on it. These issues are not mutually antagonistic. But he needs to focus on the next phase in GKP’s development.
And as a self-funding, debt free GKP, he’s got the capability to press on because he’s got a two-tier strategic approach.
Once again, it’s the benefit of being a debt free business thanks to previous shareholder sacrifices…
I know you’re a LTH, so these issues are difficult given what you’ve been through.
Nevertheless GKP’s position is clear and I believe we should back it.
SC.
"starting a intensive Capex program, would cut the legs off the company"
Not if the $151 m of arrears paid. If no payment, then no "intensive Capex program". The arrears more than 15x the ongoing buyback program of a pittiful $10m which is entirely funded by a month or two of FCF which is also ongoing!
Started: rogthegamer, 23 May 2024 08:37
Last post: rogthegamer, 23 May 2024 08:37
No surprise that we didn’t read a word from Itzajealous person until the price dropped yesterday, probably because some recent buyers were taking profits ( and unbeknown to us) the company didn’t make a single buyback trade. Does Itzadimbo remember It’z own “I’m clever” comments when our shares were 110 / 120 recently and The clever dick said sell (you Fools ) because your shares are going down to 90p. soon. Itzanothing better to do in life must have lots of valueless time to spare to troll people that It doesn’t know.
Seriously. If you believe that the pipeline will not be opening in the near future at the time of the AGM update statement a share price in the 150 / 60 range, might be a sell opportunity with the view to repurchase if they drop back to the 130s.
Dealing GKP is interesting to say the least.
Started: Roxi, 23 May 2024 07:31
Last post: Jrlomax, 23 May 2024 07:34
No share buy backs yesterday 🤷🏻♂️
Of Company Buybacks, supporting the upward rise in the Sp, £1.50 will be broken soon enough, imo
Started: truthsayer, 22 May 2024 18:06
Last post: Jrlomax, 23 May 2024 07:09
After a stock goes ex-dividend, the share price typically drops by the amount of the dividend paid to reflect the fact that new shareholders are not entitled to that payment.
"Buybacks are simply a distribution of cash. Nothing more. Nothing less. "
Still suffering from buyback syphilis, a disease where the sufferer is confused by the accounting treatment of buybacks, the problem being the disease is highly infectious and can even spread to intelligent posters. Yes, they are a distribution, but there is more to it than that, as you know damn well: the cancelled shares are an exchange of cash for an expected income stream that has a present value. If the cash expended is less than the present value, the buyback is value-accretive; if it is more, then it is value-destructive; if they are the same, then you are correct: it is a value-neutral distribution. Your other posts are good, but you have a problem grasping this point. The problem of the expected return not turning out to be the same of the actual return is a different one.
No, it does not always fall by divi amount, but we did not get divi amount...
If more divis are to come, and their is confidence, then it holds.
Ie
Zero confidence in this cxxp house
Don't forget about the 18% rise from 120p to 142p
Buybacks are simply a distribution of cash. Nothing more. Nothing less. To get your pro rata share of the cash distribution you have to sell a few/pro rata (about 0.7% of holding so far) into the buyback. If you do nothing, you have bought more of the company at the buyback price. Before today's activity that price was 135p. Presumably it will be slightly lower now.
Meaning, those that lose the most are the ones who bought on the way up at a price above the less-dividend price. And the those that gain are the ones who are quickest to abandon the share. Buybacks feeding all the wrong people with all the wrong motivations. It is just the worst way to distribute profit. And just provides room for the BoD to award themselves more "performance" shares. This really is the pits.
Yesterday's sale was at 141p
Haha
I sold some yesterday. Only a very small amount. Just 10k. I had another 15k on offer today at 142p which didn't get executed.
Yesterday was my first trade in GKP for over a year. I always regretted buying back the stock I sold at 320p and 207p (on the announcement of the move to KBT pricing).
(Core position built between May '20 and August '21. Sold some just above 320p. Sold some just above 207p. Bought them back much lower down and now flipped some of that repurchase out. Given the size of my exposure I wasn't prepared to add in the dips to 80s. My average is 88p. Plus I have gotten about 1.4x investment back from dividends.)
My own buy backs continued today, same again next month.
Who is this saddo? NUFC is that you again?
I'm buying the dip today
Started: truthsayer, 22 May 2024 13:45
Last post: Andy1022, 22 May 2024 15:04
I see the Imapussi zombie has dug itself out of its short hole and rises again
Gkp back to default mode !! Nothing changes roll on next September...
Hi Truthsayer,
I don't think its anything to do with false confidence. Its what you believe to be a good price for the stock you hold, taking into account company sales, profits, and prospects .
What we have to look at how long the share price was significantly below the price we now see and whether this represents a decent return on your investment and if you believe its going to go up much more coupled with the urgency that you require the cash.
Many may have purchased using a T20, so don't want to have to fork out regardless of prospects. Other traders or investors may decide to pull something off the table.
Clearly we do have a buyer with deep pockets, however which will normally win through on eventual share price as the stock is slowly and steadily soaked up, purchased and removed from circulation.
I believe this is what we are currently seeing and the brokers are happy to absorb a fair chunk of stock knowing they have an iceberg whale purchasing it.
As price rises we might see larger holders thinking that fair price has been reached and decide to shed some to the market or the iceberg whale. Indeed if its a large holder it may cause temporary share price stagnation until quota to buy reached or quantity to offload reached.
We saw the announcement for a smaller quantity purchased in yesterdays RNS, probably to roughly equalise the purchasing time until the AGM, when our company I believe will announce another trance of buybacks , which may jump the price further.
Even as gkp buys own shares gkp falls
Last post: PUTUP, 22 May 2024 14:50
"The $32 that PUTUP is using is an improvement on that $35."
Yep. People seem to have forgotten the two things that led the stock down. The move to KBT pricing came first. ITP closure came second.
"Not only do we have a pool of +$200m currently, it will also not be depleted considering the growth ambitions ahead. "
The gross (Contractor) figure as of Dec 31 2023 was $224 million. That includes the cost recovery in the unpaid receivables of $153 million (gross). We can only recover that amount once (by payment of the receivables or perhaps SOMO will allow recovery from future production if the KRG do indeed default - who knows). You'd be really stupid to put a multiple greater than 1 on CRP recovery. Assuming we will get paid the receivables, GKP's share of the CRP is down to about $40 million by the end of this month. Once that is recovered, it is dollars recovered = dollars spent.
That's nothing for an ESG consultant, the next report will be immaculate.
Correct SpA…. The loot from these illegal oil sales and transporting of same is going to a few controlling famillies…. The rot runs so deep that the population see no benefit.
This may come back to bite all involved (including our good selves - as we are handing over our product illegally under a non state approved contract and in the knowledge of where it is being sold !
Any GKP shareholder ought to be glad that US, SOMO and everyone else is doing nothing to stop the oil flow through the border, smugglers are keeping the company alive. But most of the money is staying in Kurdistan, not going to Teheran, Baghdad or Ankara.
Says someone who sold at 116p
As a Wiseman once says, chin up fella
'we are handing over our product illegally under a non state approved contract and in the knowledge of where it is being sold !'
Yes, it does occur to one that Baghdad is allowing the IOC's rope with which to hang themselves.
Last post: rogthegamer, 22 May 2024 09:30
On hold this morning I’m wondering if I might gain a little before this afternoon’s close if I buy into the modest fall expected.
Maybe if we drop another penny or two?
It seems like a lot of shares were traded on the sell side yesterday, more than GKP purchased,, perhaps slowing our progression towards 150 /60 that I expect before we hit the fully valued pre- pipe opening surge beyond 200. While the share price might stall today, it will give the company the chance to purchase more shares at a lower price. However, with the AGM statement due in a few weeks the price should rise again as that date approaches, when we’ll be re-rated (up or down ) depending upon performance and prospects.
Hold for now if you can tolerate the risk or take some profits if you purchased in the 89 - 120 range and are finding it too difficult to resist.
Another healthy number of buybacks, will help sustain the rise towards £1.50
Last post: Victor384, 22 May 2024 07:44
Started: Kheldar, 22 May 2024 07:26
Last post: Kheldar, 22 May 2024 07:26
Walleye with 0.89% is the only disclosed position above 0.5%. There are a few more shorts but as their position is below 0.5% we don’t know whether they have closed, decreased or increased their position.
What is not disputed is that any open positions are now all haemorrhaging money.
At some point they have to close and we should then see a healthy rise.
ATB to all shareholders
Started: Jenslehman, 21 May 2024 17:51
Last post: Straycat, 21 May 2024 19:10
Simply and deeply jealous...
Ribera del Duero Reserva
Cruz de Alba
Excellent drop
there'll be more scrambling to come as gkp re-enforces its belief that the shares are undervalued and asks for new endorsements for more buybacks for cancellation.
any continuing buyback will not produce full value. it can't until the future is clear.
until then buybacks of an undervalued gkp will always be a law of diminishing returns over time until the market re-adjusts to the company's new potential given its parlous current circumstances. and future potential.
but it will develop an appetite in a shrinking common share market for those who don't want to miss out.
what's false buy pressure due to buybacks for cancellation btw?
oh, i know, total *******s!!
all gkp are doing is making a statement about their belief in their company by investing in it. then saying to the market, do you agree or not? looks to me like the market agrees with that view...
incidentally, i'm missing the sun right now (soon to be rectified) but i regard your most recent post as gratuitously violent!!
what's a 'fine riberra'?
Scrambling for shares now
Lovely time watching in the Spanish sunshine z drinking a fine riberra...
Enjoy
Started: Just-Another-Bot, 21 May 2024 17:35
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 21 May 2024 17:35
And the finger counters all come out with, surprise surprise, either low ongoing profit or poor top of the range SP predictions. Oh and once in a Blue Moon posters saying how brilliant they are. Dunning Kruger to you numpties.
Started: truthsayer, 21 May 2024 16:09
Last post: Jrlomax, 21 May 2024 16:29
😂😂😂have you really just figured out the intention of a buy back.
Truthsayer,
Why is the buy pressure false?
Cry more
Just from our own buybacks
Started: theshipscook1, 21 May 2024 12:13
Last post: belgrano, 21 May 2024 13:39
Hi Unwin,
It wont hurt me at all and I doubt it will bother anyone here, just those who think it would.
As you correctly point out, was planned to start 3 weeks ago, and also correctly point out was an half baked Iraqi plan to try and circumnavigate the Kurdish sector. Everyone saw through that straight away.
However 2 glaring flaws in this plan from Baghdad.
Line passes through areas of Kurdish influence to Turkey, potential for disruption.
Also the most important facts, the OIC's have a lot of Turkish money tied up in them along with the Turkish export pipeline. KRG exporting direct to Turkey gives Turkey a few bites of the profit cherry not just one.
Iraq tried that as a way to get more Turkish water which they have to have. It failed as they aren't really interested in this sole flow, but would welcome it as an extra export.
You just wait until iraq opens the alternative pipeline. That’ll learn you!
Remember? The other pipe that was all over the news 2 months ago and was going to open on May 1st and circumnavigate the Kurds.
Lol more BS from the ICG
I expect those peeps still holding shorting positions in our company are having a very uncomfortable time right now with the scale of those losses growing on a daily basis and knowing that they will have to buy the stock back at best to repay the shorts. Clearly positions less than 0.5% don't have to be announced so might be quite a few shorting.
I do like the measured way our stock buy back program is progressing. On a percentage terms of average daily sales its a pretty big number that's being purchased, so clearly we can now see the very material effects of the buybacks on everyones stock value.
No one likes to see stock in the red and certainly gives greater confidence when viewing this steady upward trend. I'd be happy for it to continue for a year.
Good. Well deserved little deramping snot pizzles
Started: Straycat, 21 May 2024 12:02
Last post: Invstrat, 21 May 2024 12:50
Yes, I recall we were caught previously by ‘the buyback scam’ …… company cash was used to buy back shares which were held ‘in treasury’ and later distribute among the BoD as bonuses.
It was Criminal, but no prosecution was taken.
Danger this time is that the BoD will claim that the tireless buyback actions (and subsequent cancellations - we hope) are evidence of their efforts to manage the Company - hence justification for the award of the proposed bonuses - which will be voted for at the pending AMG
Watch and Learn …….
Anyone else note the apparent correlation between the upward trend in the sp and the daily buybacks FOR CANCELLATION?!!!!
Won't take us to full value, but the last buyback was to Treasury and failed miserably.
However now investors who are in any way interested in GKP and its future are realising that the Common Share count is falling daily because JH is buying back and cancelling daily.
And that's going to continue to and be completed by 21/6 (AGM) at the latest, and probably sooner. At which time the Board will seek shareholder endorsement to renew its ability to buyback because:-
'The Board believes that GKP's current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation potential from local sales'.
And that's obviously right.
JH is starting to look wholly vindicated by this decision to spend $10m to create a buyback initiative for CANCELLATION.
But it's only working because he's collapsing the Common Shares available.
Buybacks for cancellation have always been the way forward if the shares are undervalued in the market, because it stimulates activity in a shrinking share base. But only if that Company has a viable and attractive strategic proposition.
Which GKP has, even in these disrupted times.
Last post: rogthegamer, 21 May 2024 11:38
This A G M will be closely monitored in terms of another update that could reconfirm sales and importantly the ‘local / export’ prices achieved, and with a fair wind they might announce another share buyback and / or the prospects for a return of dividends, and that will be the last thing any remaining shorts might be able to tolerate before they ‘bite the bullet’ and purchase the stock that they must return, which in itself equals a buy back in terms of mopping up sellers shares.
OK AGM 21 June….. only two really important items on the agenda:
Approval of staff retention scheme (a substantial bonus will be sought for hanging around until pipeline opens no doubt)
Approval of performance bonuses (ie this will be a fictitious self-award over and above the salaries the management accepted when they signed up)
These justified by the stellar performancies they have achieved in :
growth in production, diversification, inspired deployment of our dormant massive reserves of capital, dividends, progress in engineering for gas re-injection, reduction in flaring, drilling new wells, workovers, upgrading plant and machinery……..
What in reality have they achieved to progress our business during 2023 (or plan to achieve during ‘24) ??
Last post: Victor384, 21 May 2024 08:01
Hi Blade - long time no see/hear
Hope you and yours are all well.
One day Rodders - lol !
Thanks Victor
Hope all is good with you and yours.
Cheers
Blade
Last post: Victor384, 21 May 2024 07:44
Started: CCC., 20 May 2024 00:52
Last post: MR.Spacetomato, 20 May 2024 20:33
Belgrano,
I too eco your fair views. Can they be more corrupt?
Too much private money being gleaned off trucking and marketing cheap Kurd oil over into Turkey to bother with official procedures.
Everyone’s a winner (except the population, of course).
Same same.
The fact that not a single Kurdistan-linked website says a word about the resumption of exports or the renegotiation of the contracts confirms that there is little to no progress
They weren't talking to begin with. For something to stall, it has to start in the first place. I understand there have been no substantive discussions since the initial meeting we heard about and it would be hard to even classify that as substantial.
Talks stall? Ha! They're not even talking!
Started: tom48, 20 May 2024 16:35
Last post: tom48, 20 May 2024 16:35
I googled fight result on Saturday looking for the Fury outcome but the search showed the Bagdad punch up outcome.