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Well done General Oz you’ve pipped Touk to the idiot of the week award, it was close though, better luck next week Touk, I know you’ve got it in you.
Wouldn't want to be out this bank holiday weekend, ASCO around the corner, expecting strong buying with £1.37 by elevenses on Tuesday. Usual suspects on the bid of course.
We are fully funded you muppet going into key milestones. They don’t have any issues with funding. Rory you are doing some educated FUD here well done!! 👍
Forgot to add, I submitted a question for the Investormeet Q&A asking when Alan was going to get the boot. He was gone within days. I think they're really responsive!
They won’t be struggling for funding after the upcoming 20p placing.
Rory, the BoD were asked about funding at the last AGM. Alan chuckled. He’s now no longer CEO.
What’s your plan for this years AGM?
Are you saying Avacta will struggle for funding?
What makes you think that the current management are not fully aware of this?
It’s frustrating. Precision is incredibly promising, and potentially revolutionary for treating certain cancers. AVA6k - as a highly-specific form of dox - is even more promising.
… and it’s great that a relatively small UK biotech has this IP in its hands.
However, the company is in a sorry state; repeated poor decisions, generally poor management, precarious funding situation, completely unsupported by institutional investors.
If fellow investors could remove the rose-tinted spectacles, and scrutinise the company objectively, the company would be much better held to account. Instead of burying heads in the sand, realising that circumstances aren’t all rosy, and subsequently pressuring management to pull their finger out could provide the impetus for the company to make a success of their IP. Frustrating.
Let me stop you there Rory, I have spent years saying the business model is more important than the science citing the scenario's that you also have highlighted and how the longer the trial continues so does the cash runway run out which can equal a much lower buyout then was ever possibly imagined even a year ago. But some here won't entertain any other scenario that we all live happily ever after.
Great effort though :0))
Rather than spouting meaningless diatribes which contribute nothing, Icecool, why not contribute something of use?
Why is it a load of rubbish?
Do you have even the foggiest clue about how biotech companies work, progress and are funded? Your inability to involve yourself in the conversation in a meaningful way suggests not.
Go back to the kiddies board where you belong.
20%? Me. I do. Once again you’re preaching for the loud minority. Moronic maths at best.
“And time = money, which Avacta doesn’t have and is struggling to find/will struggle to find.”
What a load of rubbish!!! 🤣
And time = money, which Avacta doesn’t have and is struggling to find/will struggle to find.
I’m in agreement with you, but the only thing to remember is that there are other biotechs out there with stellar data; good S&T profile and strong indications of efficacy - much further down their development pathways than Avacta, yet FDA still aren’t approving their products.
For oncology interventions, FDA heavily, heavily base their decision on survival - particularly median overall survival. AVA6k has very little data on survival currently; the P2 will develop that.
Funding will be needed for the P2, and costs will be far higher than the P1. Additionally, survival outcomes take time to manifest/measure; it takes a year after completing the first treatment cycle to identify 12-month survival. I’m not sure what we’re up against for Dox (I vaguely recall ~6 months for refractory STS patients) but we need to allow the mOS period for Dox plus some, plus time for screening, plus time for sufficiently large numbers of patients to complete the first cycle of treatment, in order to demonstrate efficacy to the FDA for the key outcome measure they’re interested in.
The above assumes the FDA will make their decision based on mOS.
RoryD fair points but for me the current SOC benchmarks of DOX sets a low bar so the question becomes, how much more data showing improved/ black and white S&T profiles between the two is needed for the FDA to grant AA for this to replace Dox as SOC for STS?
STS is usually something they manage not cure. All eyes on the heavily pretreated UPS patient nearing a complete response = Benchmarks redefined. Dare I say the first patient to be cured by AVA6000 who's only tired of going to the hospital!!!...I hope so.
Worse case efficacy is the same it is still a better safer option for patients. We expect to improve on efficacy due to increased Dox in the tumour. FDA won't drag this on for years if the case is clear. Like I said the benchmark is very low and we have had sight of a lot of S&T data. AS CC would say.... it smashes it out of the park.
Give it a rest Touk, you’re staring to bang on as if what you have to say has some relevance. I’m sorry to have to inform you but your contribution probably has some of the least credibility of any poster on the board. Novartis might ultimately buy avacta is like saying any of the big six football clubs might win the League.
Rambo, that would be positive - no control arm would massively reduce costs etc.
However, survival will absolutely have to be a primary outcome to get approval and really pique BP’s interest.
The P1 is a 3+3 trial design; short, sweet and move up to the next dose.
P2 will need to continue much longer, with many more treatment cycles, longer follow up and more data to be gathered. So, not unreasonable to take the current P1 per patient costs and triple or quadruple them in my opinion.
On a side note, if the company were to make the assumption of many, many treatment cycles when costing the trial, that would a huge boon for AVA6k; 1. Because the safety committee and regulators have allowed it (given how toxic Dox is/exposure limits), suggesting it’s accepted to be highly specific; 2. Many treatment cycles = Astronomical revenues if approved.
“Longterm” 20% is nothing missing my point entirely they clearly need more cash from somewhere 2-3 years down the line. However if that 20% gets them across the line we won’t be caring as we will make many multiples of the current price. Ok 20% more shares on potential 20 bagger who gives a flying f**k.
RoryD they said in the last RNS one indication into P2. Any additional plans beyond that are plan B so for the sake of this discussion let's keep it simple and go with plan A one indication.
We have been given guidance that there is likely no straight Dox arm. If that is correct there is no placebo, no blinded or double blinded element. We know the dose will be the RP2D the outcome of the Q2W trial assuming no issues but so far so good. Therefore I see it as likely one arm (one large cohort) across multiple trail sites at a single dose.
I think you are over complicating this based on typical P2 trials that have less advanced P1 data sets and a drug aren't using a 40 year old drug. This is different.
FDA are more supportive of using comparable data sets and AVCT have referenced some of these from Dr Tap already. Side effect profile against these we have seen is chalk and cheese.
Obviously all this is TBC and imo. AS indicated circa 80 patients to me in a discussion on this some time ago.
Rorydinho
Good to see that now your fud on KOD has failed miserably you have moved over here
It makes 20% difference at whatever price we’re at. Again, moronic maths.
I’d like to think the board are aware of all of this - but I have no confidence in the CFO to see beyond the end of his nose, so I’m doubtful.
Makes FA difference long term if the raise is done at say 400. And big pharma agree a price for the tech not based on number of shares available. You need to concentrate on your own life what’s that like 18 obsessive posts directed at me in like 8 days you should filter me if you don’t like what I post it’s clearly not healthy and very creepy.👍
At this rate, 20% dilution in 2 years time would probably generate £10m (assuming a sizeable discount as per the last raise) - peanuts.
We’ve seen price depreciation, not appreciation - and as the price depreciates, the CLN becomes an ever increasing downward pressure. There’s a positive feedback loop of unrelenting downward pressure on the share price and only positive funding news/an major injection of capital will arrest that.