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Started: Frazerjohn, 24 May 2024 14:07
Last post: elrico, 26 May 2024 12:56
The political landscape is something discussed.:
"Regulatory and Political Considerations: The Buchan Field Development Plan is set to receive the necessary regulatory approvals in the second half of 2024, with the first oil production anticipated for late 2026. Despite the prevailing negative sentiment towards the UK oil and gas industry, analysts contend that fears of higher oil taxes are exaggerated. They argue that the UK government will likely back oil and gas projects, recognising their significant economic benefits."
NEW FEATURE: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
An Underappreciated Gem in the North Sea
Don't jog on past #JOG https://lemminginvestor.substack.com
Best we can hope for/ look out for over the next tortuous 6 weeks is Party Leaders taking their baby kissing routines to the North East of Scotland/ Aberdeen - then they might be forced to say something meaningful re the O & G industry.
Sunak was in Nigg yesterday and made no impact whatsoever.
Another area to watch in Scotland is Grangemouth.
The Grangemouth Refinery is due to close in the next couple of years which is absolutely disastrous for the Scottish Economy and will be a complete destruction of Grangemouth and the hinterland - up to 10% off the GDP of Scotland with it's closure.
We'll see if it causes any discussion in Labour circles, as it is there that the immediate issue with Unions and Job Losses will be most pronounced.
Started: Itsriskythat, 25 May 2024 10:59
Last post: Itsriskythat, 25 May 2024 10:59
Les Thomas JOG Chairman says "“Last year the UK spent more on importing hydrocarbons than it spent on the entire defence budget, a direct consequence of short-term fiscal policy damaging long-term investment into homegrown energy."
Such a simple solution to fund the increase in the defence spending (that Labour won't commit to) is to produce more oil and gas from the UKCS.
Started: NewKOTB, 23 May 2024 15:25
Last post: alsoppc, 24 May 2024 14:01
1:54PM
Union boss demands answers from Labour over plan to axe North Sea drilling
A union boss said oil and gas workers must not become the “coal miners of our generation” as she criticised Labour’s plan to ban new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, said she wanted specific answers from Labour on how it would ensure fossil fuel jobs are replaced with green energy ones.
She told the BBC Radio 4 World At One programme: “I think the important thing is that my job is to defend workers, that is the job that I have, and I think in this election the workers’ voice must absolutely be heard.
“We can’t have the oil and gas workers becoming the coal miners of our generation.”
Ms Graham said that the promise of “jam tomorrow is not going to cut it”.
Greener
Don't think there's any chance of the Project being cancelled by Government (of any colour).
Think the Project will get FDP approval in the next couple of months, no problem.
Big problem is the final investment decision - then we can sweat.
JOG (Neo) has the license, and also the permit to produce.
Nothing in the manifesto to suggest FDP won't be granted by NSTA under a Labour government.
Nothing about specifics will be released until post election, any else heard KS on Times Radio this morning? Absolutely content lite.
On the flip side, we'll find out soon enough in July. Hoping that what all the NS oil co CEOs have been saying is true, Neo and Serica should have certainly on taxation allowances in 6 weeks time. That means no delays to FO.
Here's hoping
Small point NKOTB - the Labour Manifesto hasn't been issued yet (but I'll be amazed if it differs from their green policy documents previously published).
The exact wording will no doubt be of interest, but Greta Miliband will stick to his nonsensical tax raid.
DU has been highlighting for months that there are no windfall profits - company results have shown no windfall profits - the prices being charged at petrol stations imply no windfall profits - continue to drive investment away from the North Sea and there will be no tax revenue at all, and maybe up to 200,000 unemployed from the oil and related industries - The policy adopted by both parties is crazy and totally irresponsible. - rant over.
Started: Surety, 22 May 2024 20:06
Last post: Frazerjohn, 23 May 2024 14:43
Unfortunately, there is no way Labour is going to change it's stated policy in the short term.
Sunak's line of attack on Starmer has been that he has flip flopped on policies so many times that the public can't trust him.
No way he'll ditch the stated figures prior to the election, nor for the first few months when they will (undoubtedly) be in power.
They also need the material revenue to the Exchequer that O&G generates, in order to accelerate/fund their spending in other areas...
DYOR
Economic realities quickly come to the fore when and if a new government enters office - I agree that probably the most important factor is stability and certainty in the short term in the markets eyes which is the bedrock for moving this project forward. Security of home energy supply again the growing uncertainty in Europe will have to become a priority for whomever is on power following July4th.
Initial reaction last night was bad, given we'd all hoped to get the approval in place before the next general election. But on reflection, a sooner election forces labour have to come up with an energy policy that doesn't alienate voters and at least brings the matter to a head - while before it felt like death by a thousand cuts.
Labour are going to have to move from populist rhetoric.. to governing policy at pace.. I suspect we will see a softening on their EPL logic, including the capital relief element ... shortly
IMHO
Started: Greener101, 21 May 2024 20:22
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 23 May 2024 07:12
Accurately expressed Greener101.
Environmentalist anarcho-primitivists use the scientific fact of global warming to push for massive deindustrialization, so that their political agenda based on radical equality and the destruction of capitalism can take place. These are generally civil servants who will not be affected by massive deindustrialization.
In France, as civil servants, they have a guaranteed job for life. They live in cities and don't need cars, so they're also car-averse. They love comfort brought by fossil fuels but criticize the comfort of others. They have a high level of education but don't understand that a construction boss with no university education earns 5 times more than them. They also give lessons on inequality but send their children to private schools.
Let's face it, fossil fuels have enabled millions of people to enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. The side effect is global warming. But that's no reason to succumb to the anarcho-primitivists. Please don't fall into this trap.
Started: David6576, 21 May 2024 10:09
Last post: Greener101, 21 May 2024 13:56
Just rang my broker. He held the phone up to the trading floor and beckoned them all to scream and shout! It was very exciting. We are partners now and I look forward to our journey together. Next time he can get me an evener bigger 'clip' size!!
Would that be the tennis or the golf ?
Took me ages to add up.Big orders appearing up now.£47k blocks.
When did the US come into play? idiot.
The chart looks really strong and uptrend from here.
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 21 May 2024 10:04
Serica clearly has confidence in the profitability of future NS projects.
Started: David6576, 21 May 2024 09:53
Last post: David6576, 21 May 2024 09:53
Way undervalued and the next update will trigger it multi-bags from here. Trying to load up but very difficult to buy.
Started: MPO818, 19 May 2024 19:15
Last post: MPO818, 19 May 2024 19:15
Started: Greener101, 19 May 2024 12:38
Last post: onthe6, 19 May 2024 15:56
Even if we can claim tax relief for some of the Capex now as we go along, I’d have thought the majority of the expenses will be from end of this year or early next year until first oil late 2026. Again question for Einstein, AMA Einstein.
Various articles about Unite. Ads are being taken out in key Scottish constituencies about it. Making in-roads to Scotland is definitely important to KS.
Should even this modest piece of news be released: "EPL allowance removed, capital allowances remain" - which for me is a worst case scenario (I think electrification-ready projects could easily get full allowances) Buchan is a 'go'.
It would be great to hear it from a finance person (...) but surely a lot of CAPEX can get done under the present regime (FSPO purchase) leaving modest damage to the model for CAPEX Q2 2025 (when Lab will have got the changes through).
Anyway - on this small piece of news, JOG should get the biggest possible share price rise in the story for far. And all us LTHs, who recently I'm sure have all been thinking about chucking in the towel, would be back behind the sofa again looking for small change, asking granny for cheques, etc etc.
I'm pretty despondent myself about the stock, but it's crazy to think we could be days from a giant rebound.
GLA
Thought this was interesting in their short broker note..
After a year of significant value realisation for shareholders that has secured the funding to progress Buchan to first oil, we expect the high quality management team at Jersey to look to maximise its financial synergies in using its $50m tax loss to acquire a package of production assets and explore other growth opportunities.
DYOR
Started: Surety, 17 May 2024 09:11
Last post: Frazerjohn, 17 May 2024 14:23
Surety - thanks for posting
Caught the Stifel Article on Twitter yesterday by some Westminster hacks.
In summary, Labour's Ed Miliband and chums want to be green and cut CO2 emissions and raise tax for free Rainbow Lanyards and Stickers for everybody to put on their bikes. (these can also be burned of a morning to provide much needed warmth when the Windmills have given up the ghost).
Stifel (an adult) enters the room and informs them that there plans will:
Lower capital investment by £20 billion.
Reduce spending by 30 billion.
Lose 100,000 skilled jobs.
Require the UK to up it's imported gas share from 55% at present to 80%.
This results in our carbon footprint (ha ha) and CO2 emissions (those made up figure that no one can challenge) will increase by 35 million tonnes!! (or maybe 20 tonnes or 500 million tonnes - can't find the measuring equipment, meters or whatever it is they use on Amazon or the internet anywhere)
What a great policy!!
Seems like a sure fire winner to me.
Seems also the a brain is a protected species in Westminster, kept somewhere in a drawer beside the nuke codes.
Off to design a Carbon emissions meter today.
No idea what's involved. No idea what nonsensical numbers it will generate (with CO2 emissions after). No real idea what it will look like, although thinking along the lines of an Apple Watch.
About to apply for a grant for a few million quid to develop my idea - heck they give incentives for building windmills.
Might sell some shares in my start up if anybody is daft...I mean astute enough to see the benefits to the environment (and to my bank account) NOTE TO SELF - don't say the last bit out loud in future.
Reminds me of the guy who got an Arts grant from the Council to showcase the Construction Industry Skill set and built himself a garage with the proceeds.
Council got their knuckles battered for that one, but the incompetents are still always there wasting our money. (for reference, see the Post Office).
Just realised I posted the wrong link below, was meant to be this one "North Sea oil and gas veteran Les Thomas has called for cross party-political backing for the industry.
This is needed “now more than ever”, he said, adding: “Unfortunately, domestic oil and gas has been leveraged for short-term political gain, threatening the energy security of the UK and damaging long-term economic growth.”
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/553461/north-sea-oil-bosses-pull-no-punches-over-uk-energy-policy-jersey-oil-and-gas-buchan/
Surety - Excellent article - when will the politicians open the eyes and ears to these comments. Will common sense prevail, either before or after a general election. DU has been saying "there is no windfall" for months.
Started: Greener101, 17 May 2024 07:53
Last post: Jockvest111, 17 May 2024 09:06
Politicians will rarely speak out against Net Zero but in the background the number crunchers and planners will be formulating plans and strategy. I understand the SNP meet regularly with industry chiefs in the oil industry.
Did anyone see this last night? Labour fella Anas Sanwar under attack from everyone with EPL and Investment allowances specifically mentioned. Sanwar did a whole speech about 'we will need O&G for coming decades', and 'we will honour all licenses including the decades lifespan of field' but didn't hint at anything else, didn't mention EPL or Allowance. All very strange. Seems contradictory.
Last post: MPO818, 17 May 2024 08:52
DU - this is what I mentioned earlier.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/two-years-ukraine-war-europe-binding-energy-security-another-authoritarian-regime/
DU - I read lots of articles each day and what I copied was plucked out of one I found interesting:
If you type my post (I copied it) into safari I got a "Global Witness" story headed "Two years into the Ukranian war" the content is very similar to what I read yesterday.
Hope that helps
Where did you read it, MPO? Can you share?
"Since the war in Ukraine, nations everywhere are scrambling for energy independence,"
Hopefully UK politicians read this BB
Started: JerseyCrew, 15 May 2024 09:13
Last post: Greener101, 16 May 2024 14:22
So easy to please both groups. Green projects, smaller business not majors, definition of 'new', what is the loophole, when is it active, etc etc etc
Labour is starting to feel the squeeze. Starmer/Millibland are between the rock and hard place. Do we go with the naive and deluded youth or follow our Unite paymasters 'advice'? Where will most of the votes be? Perhaps they can make both groups happy. Who's going to be minister for mealy mouthed U-turns? That's you Sir Kier. Millibland will have to go. He can join Cummings' new pro-Russia party.
Https://www.unitetheunion.org/campaigns/oil-and-gas-no-ban-without-a-plan
Interesting. Growing pressure for Labour to clarify policy before the election. I think the political cost of doing it is low.
Double frothy tip from SC and ST. Buyers well outnumber sellers, which is a good sign the over hang has cleared. Either that or Nick Robinson is on holiday and out of reception.
Is this normal?
Started: Surety, 16 May 2024 13:12
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 16 May 2024 14:11
. 'The Labour party has proposed increasing the total tax rate to 78 per cent and removing tax relief on new projects, which it has described as a loophole.'
' NEW ' PROJECTS - Can we nail this term down ? Not existing at present ??
Wow - the language from even the left-leaning FT is changing... 'The Labour party has proposed increasing the total tax rate to 78 per cent and removing tax relief on new projects, which it has described as a loophole.'
CHF - I'm no expert, others please chime in... but I believe it's evidence that the project is absolutely live and progressing. Although - I don't think it's the kind of expense that means project is certain to proceed.
.... regardless of Chevron's narrative
https://on.ft.com/4bAmHms
Started: buchanan101, 15 May 2024 13:35
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 16 May 2024 13:13
Greener - is that a good or bad sign ?
Neo initiated a new contract on 13th May for another survey, new vessel, including 'borehole sampling'... another few 00,000s...
https://kingfisherbulletin.org/notice-map?noticeId=4145
The bearishness on the board is encouraging
Probably
Is this all down to yet another tip from ST - where each time the price goes up, then drops more - or is there something concrete here?
Also followed his tips on AA4 which seems a little less risky given 19% yield and 60% discount to NAV
Started: Surety, 15 May 2024 07:47
Last post: Surety, 15 May 2024 07:47
Started: Greener101, 13 May 2024 22:03
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 14 May 2024 18:36
Re- DU - re politicians present and going forward.
Ms Atkins - absolutely agree - she is ghastly - as though she knows she is way out of her depth, but determined to maintain her personal position, she utters the words that have been scripted for her to maintain her position.
Politicians General: Again I agree ; Ignorance, self -preservation, and malice seems to be the order of the day.
Because I worked for a City company for a long time ( not as a professional finance person) I became interested, reading lots of stuff on City pages, money advice columns, etc, and have done 'reasonably ' on investing
Have done the 'right' things, ISA's, diversification of investments, successful momentum investing ( i.e. reading what's on the move and getting in even when 'up' has been well underway and making profit).
Feel I have done - 'satisfactorily' - maybe very marginally better than that.
Over the same period a friend who inherited some money took the view that he knew nothing about investments and really found it all too confusing and he bought ( for his own 2nd use and investment) a small newly built house on a
development on the Essex coast in what was once a very small industrial area - not particularly fashionable.
He's way ahead of me on profitability, and despite the fact all future governments are going to be getting their claws into 2nd home profits, given the levels of immigration and the impact on house prices - maybe that is the way to go - especially if one opts for a rental income.
I'd take £5.60 as well. Me too - in a heartbeat
Thank you for that information Dick.
I'd take £5.60 as well.
CHF - SQZ has significant b/fwd tax losses acquired when it bought Tailwind Energy, but whether or not they'll still be available when and if Buchan gets to production in late 2026 - assuming it does - is another matter. I doubt they will be as SQZ is quite profitable - not that it gets to keep much of the profit. Not sure about HBR - can't recall tax losses being a feature.
JOG has losses of £65-70m that can be offset against future profits from the same trade. I have factored these into the DCF projections I used that got me to a NPV of around £4 a share. I used very conservative (no pun intended) assumptions in my calcs.
If Buchan does get to production, then using the most recent evidence of what 2P reserves are changing hands at ($10pb), if JOG ends up owning 25mmboe of 2P reserves in Buchan, in simple terms it would be worth $250m. Divide that by the number of fully diluted shares (c.36m) and you get to $7 per share - 560p.
I'd take it
Started: PJT12, 14 May 2024 09:02
Last post: buchanan101, 14 May 2024 10:42
Does this mean I should buy more? Have done so twice on Thompson's "advice"... not serving me well so far!
Maybe I will dribble a bit more in
Started: DonkeyOatey, 13 May 2024 17:54
Last post: Greener101, 13 May 2024 21:45
DU - why then did Serica farm in, and is Neo keeping development going? I think you have to work on the basis that Labours hand will be forced by the rapid decline of NS.
Serica closed the FO and paid multi millions in full knowledge of the statements made by Ed.
PS I do not except JOG to want to fund a windfarm.
The trouble with ST's assessment, and with the "risked NAVs" the ANALysts have come up with - which are not "risked" in ways I understand - is that they don't seem to take into account the risk that Buchan doesn't get off the ground. The "Buchan Project" NPV10 I calculated, based on numbers JOG has given us and what Labour have told us they're going to do (which I've assumed doesn't disallow Capital Allowances altogether, which is what Miliband has said they will and no-one has contradicted him) shows a minus NPV of £0.5bn (I used forward DCFs for 9 years to get to that number). The half a billion is to split between NEO and SQZ. Would you say "yes" to these numbers when it came to FID? JOG has a +ve NPV (around £4ps if the oil comes to the surface) because it wouldn't have any capex.
The hope is that JOG sells to an E&P that is more interested in energy security than losing everything it might make in tax (don't kid yourselves the EPL will ever be lifted - there'll be even more Greta Thundertwats than ever by 2030 and Britain will be under the control of the IMF, which will forbid the relaxation of any taxes, so desperate will it be for cash to give to life's shirkers and people who've spent all their vouchers and will be mercilessly after yours if you've been daft enough to save anything for a rainy day.
I'm outta here if I read any more nonsense about buying into renewables (off the shores of the holiday isle). Utter folly - Jersey itself would probably go bust trying. Never be a pioneer - invest into something that finally makes it about 4 tries down the road in about 20 years' time.
My advice? Convert whatever you've got into Krugerrands and hide it somewhere where Labour's sniffer dogs won't be able to find it. Leave the country before you die, but FFS don't forget to take it with you.
Cash alone will be worth close to £1 a share post FDP approval, so no point selling at 145p. Then there the tax losses (c.£70m @ 40% = £28m). Oh ........and didn't someone say JOG has 25mmboe of 2p (on FDP approval) 33° API sweet light crude that will come out at some stage - not sure in whose hands?
It's worth listening to the linked lecture - frightening, but educational
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClDrkcSfKjk
Double it by 100% bonus. Tough life. Shareholders have no say.
Just read the highest paid director section - WOW - no wonder there has been no comment for months - it is clear now why one LTH has jumped ship - 2023 was a "transformational year" for the directors - not so for shareholders.
IC view, a good opportunity for bottom price fishers.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/05/13/jersey-oil-gas-still-has-multi-bagger-potential/
True, the negative sentiment towards the UK oil and gas industry has driven Jersey's share price down from 365p when the first farm-out was announced in April 2023 to well below the 205p entry level in my 2019 Bargain Shares portfolio. However, priced on a 76 per cent discount to the average risked net asset values of Zeus (616p), WH Ireland (705p) and Cavendish (534p), bottom fishers should be well rewarded from this deep value play. Buy.
Last post: Greener101, 13 May 2024 17:52
It feels exhaustingly bad at the moment but all it takes is a small news release from Labour, on a technical clarification that wouldn't be a 'U-turn' if communicated correctly, and the SP will go nuts. The current price suggests 0% chance of project sanction, which is crazy. Allowances clarified - and it has a 99% chance of sanction!
PS the management are not in control of whether the business is up for sale - shareholders are. And I believe even if secretly you would be delighted in a bid, doing your best to polish the asset up, and look busy gets a higher price. I appreciate they are sitting on their behinds at the moment but 4 months until FID would be an odd time to dissamble the management team and go home. It would also crush the tax advantages on their options.
Gosh I am a suck-up aren't I!
Thanks. I can only surmise that it's a low cost 'option' being created to boost green credentials. As mentioned previously, and hinted at by Steve Brown over at Orcadian, Lab gov may fiddle with allowances on green credentials. The industry has been negotiating with gov and labour these last few months. The existing investment allowances allow for a super-deduction on electrification.
Perhaps this cheaply positions JOG for an option should the tax environment shift again.
Les Thomas is very far from dumb and would not allowance a spurious adventure in my view.
From this in the RNS today "As a result, working alongside these sector experts, we are evaluating the Jersey Government's potential interest in creating a utility scale wind farm in the Channel Islands." Seems to to tie in with this https://www.gov.je/Environment/ClimateEmergency/JerseyClimateEmergency/GreenHouseEmissions/pages/offshorewindpower.aspx
You could equally say the 10k buyer has returned. All this stock is being absorbed at the current bottom by someone. For every seller, there's a buyer.
Where do you see the bit about windfarms off Jersey/ France?
Started: dickupham, 10 May 2024 23:10
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 13 May 2024 10:13
I know its a bit early but take your lunch break now please - we've got two big lorry loads of stuff coming in at 11.15 and need you available.
........."Why don’t you ask the company?".............
.........why don't you? Then you'll be able to tell us.......
I don't have much free time during working hours - shelf stacking at my local Morrisons takes up most of my waking hours
:-)
Re- DU - Ithaca and ENI
Last months IC carried article saying : -
" Despite regulatory uncertainty due to this years election and the energy profits levy extension , ITHACA and ENI are exploring a deal that would see the Italian energy giant swap its North Sea assets for a 39% stake in ITHACA.
This would further increase ITHACA'S EXPOSURE to North Sea at a time when others are looking elsewhere for growth "
So if ITHACA are positive on NS , they might fancy a tie up if NEO and SERICA dont come up with the investment.
Could be 2)
Maybe a state-controlled entity (as per those mentioned by Dick and why not Equinor (again, now it’s been technically derisked)) will take on the entire GBA.
Good idea. I hadn’t been thinking along those lines.🧐
Why don’t you ask the company? What are their tasks these days?
Einstein being Einstein might know the answer.
Started: dickupham, 8 May 2024 08:53
Last post: dickupham, 10 May 2024 14:33
Labour will just put the wf tax rate up to 600% and disallow a few more expenses..............
Easy..........
Orange is the new black. $140 is the new $70. Simply put. Oil cos pray price either below $70 or above $140. Never in between. Great weekend!
Says it all, instead of investing in and supporting our own industry we're buying Russian crude refined by India !! Its just a disgrace
https://news.sky.com/video/how-is-russia-exploiting-loopholes-to-sell-oil-to-the-uk-and-eu-13131191
Superbly put Dick and I guess we'll just have to import more of the stuff from the rest of the world and who cares that their carbon emissions are higher than GBA (insert any other UK oil & gas field) - the politicians aren't going to trouble voters with that kind of small detail. At least the politicians can point to the UK leading the way in decimating their own oil industry that produces less than 1% of global oil production each year. Please stop laughing at the back.
Excellent post DU - sadly our vote grabbing politician lack common sense. I hope we all live long enough to see how this all pans out, Mrs MPO considers me a greedy b...ard for not grabbing the 300p+ that has been dangled on a few occasions, she even sleeps with her purse just in case I get any bright ideas.
Started: Roadrunner73, 9 May 2024 08:39
Last post: EinbertAlstein, 9 May 2024 14:08
Aminex
Take a look at Amine AEX. Also doing well
Still way off nr 200p eco got to though, however they still also have an oil discovery in their portfolio and v low cap considering! going to be some BIG farmouts there soon imo
There is probably no better risk vs reward oil exploration company than ECO right now with plays in Namibia & South Africa. SP up 55% in last month & still ridiculously underpriced. Check it out & get in now. SP rising daily.