Several documents on here relating to Buchan approvals with letters back and forth between Neo and secretary of state, most recent from a couple of weeks ago https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/buchan-redevelopment-project
Nice little summary https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/buchan-horst-oil-field-uk/?cf-view
This is what was announced woth respect to contracts for the refurb Onthe6 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/6269212/pivotal-work-on-giant-western-isles-vessel-is-happy-landing-for-apollo/
"The agreement with equity partner Neo Energy stipulates that production from the North Sea vessel will cease "on or around" March 31, 2024" https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/story/dana-petroleum-announces-end-of-production-for-western-isles-fpso Western Isles is due to starts its return for refit any time now, could be a good indication things are still on schedule or not when it does https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9736171
Cuphalful, my thinking for revenue not coming to jog from day one is down to thinking the oil will need to be transported and processed before it's sold, presumably through its own Ltd company such as this https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14746451 there might be assets capitalised on their accounts and depreciation deducted such as maybe the Western Isles depending on who actually owns that along with other costs before what's left is distributed to the shareholders of Buchan, and Jog gets its 20%, which is what I'm not expecting to be on day 1 of oil being extracted hence my comment I'm guessing that is still at least 2 years off.
Is it not just more simply Neo I assume won't be paying a dividend to Buchan shareholdeds from day 1 of oil coming up so it's still minimum 2, maybe 2.5 years, until Jog start to receive a proper revenue stream, that's plenty of time to wait and buy-in and if I wasn't already a LTH and seen how the SP can double I'd be tempted to come back in 12 months before buying in. If there was any hint of Neo not coming through on this I've no doubt the price would be closer or less than money in the bank like it has been in the past as without Neo in my view Jog are effectively owning 20% of nothing. Given they've handed out now 80% of their share and the conjecture of Neo not proceeding (which I don't see any reason why they wouldn't, the 'P' is afterall an integral part of any E&P company) it would still be interesting to know if there's any penalty clauses for delays within Neo's control to keep Neo honest on the progression or at least if Neo decided not to proceed something to say Neo have to give their share of the GBA back. In the meantime I'll keep my shares tucked away and hope someone sees the long term value and buys them for a sensible price, if not, either way in 2 years time I'm sure I'll be very happy with my investment.
Https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/waldorf-production-sets-sights-on-uk-north-sea-acquisitions-amid-rising-windfall-taxes they already have a few stakes around the 20% surely at these prices it's only a matter of time before someone like this comes in and swoops up Jog
It seems a pretty safe bet the investment relief could be gone by the end of the year when the government changes, unless someone manages to reign milliband in. I do take some comfort in Labour's position on the NS has been known for a while, as much as you can say their usually vacuous policies are known, with Serica only recently finalising their part it should still go ahead even if the investment allowance is removed.
Doesn't mean a great deal since it's almost a certainty we'll have a new government come October but https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-set-extend-energy-windfall-tax-by-one-year-sources-2024-03-04/
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/27/labour-north-sea-tax-raid-oil-production-fears/ not great reading for any LTH
Another new one here https://youtu.be/Sayz-DCNHQ8?si=oK1A49cS5QHYbqVx or this https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/jersey-oil-gas---leveraged-returns-from-north-sea-oil-discovery I suppose there's no point dwelling too much on what might have been but I do wonder where we'd be now if they'd just offered Equinor 80% 3 years ago instead of the 50% equinor turned down, always easy to say in hindsight. I also wonder if not wrapping Verbier up in a parralel Buchan FDP submission might have something to do with the payments triggered to Equinor when the Verbier FDP and first oil happen. I think the 3.5x will be like the aim to leave themselves with 25%-20% and ending up with 20%, and in reality they're expecting more like 3x than 3.5x it doesn't look much like a sellers market to me at the moment. GLA and remaining hopeful of a quick sale.
Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/547590/analysis-labour-windfall-tax-north-sea-values/ I read the Politico piece at the weekend and thought about posting but seemed overly gloomy, having just found this link perhaps it's not, it gives a few case studies with drops in portfolio value between 18-43%. Would be interested to see if the brokers revise their target price when labour get in, £4 might be a looking more realistic to me right now, with Labour wanting to make the oil cos feel the most pain possible and still a chance Neo might decide to moth ball and with the Serica signing dragging on. I'd love to see them bought out but I think cornishoilpirate has been getting over excited about his iminent takeover rumour and his 2 and 5 keys on his keyboard have become stuck together. If only Truss had the sense to cancel the white elephant that was HS2 at the same time as announcing unfunded tax cuts we might not be staring at a government who are getting ready for unfunded benefits increases instead
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/09/rishi-sunak-latest-news-labour-green-pledge-starmer-live/so increased and extended but not backdated, could be better, could be worse.
Neo got 4 but nothing for JOG https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/24-licences-offered-in-second-tranche-of-33rd-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/ more tranches to come following environmental studies
@Dickuphan it was taken from the larger of the two documents; Environmental Statement, section 1.2 Field Ownership towards then end of the paragraph: "subject to certain conditions precedent and regulatory approval, the transaction expected to be completed in January 2024"
Thanks, good find, Serica deal expected to complete Jan '24. I sold a small amount of my JOG shares for the first time last week, still hold the vast majority of the shares I have to keep tucked away but can't see them going anywhere anytime soon, will be back buying again beginning of 2026 if they're still at these levels. I can see more headwinds than catalysts for surge upwards before then. Hope I'm wrong as I'd still love to see them £5+ before 2026, but personally not holding my breath, but then if my experience of this share has told me anything over the last 5/6 years it's that I clearly don't have a clue when it comes to forecasting oil co share movements. See you all in 2026 unless by some miracle they pop before then. GLA!
In fairness to the journalist Jogs own RNS on 23/11 states on Buchan; "bring into production over 70 million barrels of oil equivalent" it does go on to give higher figures but for the whole area covered by all the licences and since it's Buchan getting the FPSO, for the article to quote the 70m figure from Jogs own RNS isn't so unreasonable. Looking on the Neo website https://www.neweuropeanoffshore.com/neo-energy-acquires-full-equity-in-the-western-isles-fpso/ it reads as if Neo has 100% ownership of the Western Isles rather than the licence partners having co-ownership which I must admit when I first read the RNS on the FPSO aqusition, I read and assumed it as the partners taking co-ownership when it stated Neo was acquiring it on bahalf of the partners, if I assumed incorrectly, and in fact Neo has 100% ownership, Isuppose this could be one reason for the price not racing up as I guess until the Western Isles is sat above the GBA at some point in 2026 there's maybe a small chance Neo could decide to deploy it elsewhere. If Neo do have full ownership, it also raises the question of how much Neo will be charging back to the GBA partners for its use, albeit I do take some encouragement that the terms must be okay as Serica joined after the FPSO announcement. All that of course could be a load of rubbish, I'm just at a loss as to why the price didn't jump further on the announcement and so seeing things that aren't actually there and the partners have 'bought' the FPSO and have collective ownership. HNY all and hopefully a more prosperous new year, you'd like to think the only way is up from here!
We could have all this sort of fun and games to add to the list for 2024 as well https://www.offshore-energy.biz/two-legal-challenges-loom-over-uks-giant-undeveloped-oil-field/ whilst this sort of thing seems like a futile publicity stunt I can't see it helping the share price if/when it happens either. Given where the SP is now compared to where I first bought in around 6 years ago the gilt would be way ahead of my JOG 'investment', and looking increasingly likely it'll be another 3 years+ before that'll change. Looking like we're actually going to finish down on where we started 2023, who'd have thought given the news we've had. Have a good Christmas all and hopefully a more prosperous New Year.
Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/542986/north-sea-licences-relinquished/ interesting context for the current state of the North Sea, 57% of licences so far from the 32nd round handed back to the NSTA, appears JOG got lucky with theirs from the 32nd round, I shudder to think where we'd be if they still only had Verbier. I still haven't seen anything to say if they applied for more licences under the 33rd round, and if not, what they plan to do with all their personnel now operatorship of the GBA has passed to Neo.