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What are the odds of Shell increasing their dividend by inflation +++
The markets are hoping for a substantial rise, possibly 15%
Will Looney follow suit ????
With Hindsight we can be so glad that debt was prioritised when interest rates were so low anyway.
Keep an eye on finance costs. Net debt Q1 22 $27.5bn, cost BP $664m to service for the quarter. Net debt Q1 23 fell to $21.2bn, BP finance costs rose to $843m.
So far this quarter the oil price is trending upward,that’s a plus for 3 rd quarter earnings.
Even yesterdays crude inventory build has not dented this rally in crude Brent still $83 till I started writing this (now $82.9)
Several other shares I have ,have surprised to the upside in the last week,so hopefully BP manage the same,just shows how poorly the market is being valued at present.
My plan is to wait till results day and then hopefully capture £5 to take a little off the table.
Not because I have lost hope, more because there is far far too much BP in my portfolio.
Will it work, well we will know in a couple of weeks.
Will we ever see the dizzy heights of £6 again? At the moment it seems like we're wading through treacle. LTH
I am long term holder in BP - but now looks like we are stuck in a rut even with the buybacks - I think better short term growth value at mo in other sectors like travel and banking -so thats where i have put half my bp holding - supect the PoO will dip again then i will possibly come back in for some more. I also hold still a bit of Harbour and Shell...so not out of the black stuff yet
Crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly rose this week by 1.319 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday after decreasing by 797,000 barrels in the week prior.
Analysts were expecting a draw of 1.969 million barrels in U.S. crude-oil inventories. The total number of barrels of crude oil gained so far this year is more than 35 million barrels, according to API data, although the net draw in crude inventories since April is just under 12 million barrels.
On Monday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported no change for the second week in a row to the inventory held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the week ending July 21, with the SPR inventory still sitting at a 40-year low of 346.8 million barrels.
The price of WTI and Brent were both trading up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release. By 3:00 p.m. EST, WTI was trading up 1.08%, at $79.59 per barrel—up just shy of $4 per barrel since last Tuesday, while Brent crude was trading up 1.05% at $83.61—also up nearly $4 this from this time last week.
Gasoline inventories saw another draw this week, falling by 1.043 million barrels after falling by 2.8 million barrels in the week prior, with inventories already 7% less than the five-year average. Distillate inventories rose by 1.614 million barrels, compared to the small 100,000 barrel draw in the week prior.
Crude oil production in the United States was stagnate at 12.3 million bpd for the week ending July 14, according to EIA data, still up just 100,000 bpd in the last six and a half months of this year.
Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by another 2.34 million barrels, after falling by 3 million barrels in the previous week.
Russia’s crude oil exports by sea continued to slump last week.
Russia’s crude shipments plunged by 311,000 bpd to 2.73 million bpd in the week to July 23.
Crude shipments from the Kozmino port in Russia’s Far East rose in the week to July 23.
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Kozmino
Russia’s crude oil exports by sea continued to slump last week and are now well below the February levels and nearly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) lower than the recent peak at the end of April, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
Russia’s crude shipments plunged by 311,000 bpd to 2.73 million bpd in the week to July 23, as exports out of the Western ports on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea crashed to 1.17 million bpd, down by 625,000 bpd from the previous week, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
Crude shipments from the Kozmino port in Russia’s Far East, from where the voyage to top customers China and India is much shorter, rose in the week to July 23, but couldn’t offset the plummeting crude export volumes from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.
So in the week to July 23, nationwide Russian crude exports by sea, at 2.73 million bpd, were 1.48 million bpd lower than the peak seen in the final week of April, according to Bloomberg’s data.
Tanker-tracking data have already started to show in recent weeks that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports were declining from the highs seen in April and May.
Last week, Russian crude oil shipments plunged to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16.
This week’s data compiled by Bloomberg suggests shipments plummeted further in the following week to July 23.
In early July, Russia said that it would cut its crude oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August in a bid to ensure a balanced market, and the reduction in exports would come from a further 500,000-bpd cut in oil production.
Vessel-monitoring data suggest that Russia has started to reduce supply to the market, which, combined with the Saudi production cut of 1 million bpd in July and August, would tighten market balances.
See what tonight’s crude report has to say for itself.
Another nice positive would add to the upward pressure.
BP has celebrated a quarter century of production at its Eastern Trough Area Project in the central North Sea.
BP’s senior vice president of North Sea, Doris Reiter, has taken to LinkedIn to celebrate 25 years of production at the Eastern Trough Area Project (ETAP).
Ms Reiter described the ETAP anniversary as a “fantastic achievement for this key hub with an exciting future.”
Later this year, BP looks to start production from its Seagull tieback. This will mark the first tie-back to the development in 20 years.
BP (LON: BP) is partnered with Neptune Energy and JAPEX in the Seagull project.
Recently, Neptune announced that the Seagull project is to start in July, this is in line with the firm’s announcement in March that the start-up remains “on schedule.”
Neptune said in its first quarter results that the Seagull project was “close to completion with start-up in July.”
Ms Reiter marked the quarter-century of production from the central North Sea platform on LinkedIn by writing:: “My credit and thanks go to the dedicated people offshore and onshore who ensure the asset’s continued strong performance momentum and enduring success.
“Each time I visit, I’m impressed by the trusting and welcoming culture created by the talented team on board.”
ETAP came on stream in July 1998 with an estimated production life of 20 years.
However, a $1 billion investment programme in 2015 extended the lifespan of the hub and production at ETAP is set to continue “well into the 2030s”, according to
82.40$
UK Energy Minister Grant Shapps: the UK govt. intends to tap all of its North Sea oil and gas reserves.
Shapps; higher carbon emissions would result from reliance on foreign imports of oil and gas if the North Sea is abandoned.
Labour leader Keir Starmer has pledged that his party will not grant any new North Sea licenses if they win the next general election.
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UK Energy Minister Grant Shapps says the British government intends to extract one-hundred percent of its North Sea oil and gas reserves and still achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, while the Labour Party has vowed to refrain from issuing any further exploration and production licenses if elected by January 2025.
According to Shapps, higher carbon emissions would result from reliance on foreign imports of oil and gas if the North Sea is abandoned. The energy minister has referred to the Labour Party’s stance against North Sea oil and gas as “madness”, criticizing the policy for making the UK vulnerable to the weaponization of energy, as it has been to Russia.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has stood firm on no new North Sea licenses, while Labour energy secretary Ed Miliband has warned that Shapp’s strategy would fail to improve UK energy security as well as reverse climate commitments.
In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer has pledged that his party will not grant any new North Sea licenses if they win the next general election. However, they would not revoke existing contracts. Shapps criticized this policy as “madness” and advocated for granting licenses for all viable oil and gas fields as long as they align with the net zero goals.
In 2021, the UK imported the bulk of its crude oil and natural gas liquids from Norway, taking in 13 million metric tons of crude oil and 1.7 million metric tons of natural gas liquids. Imports from the United States (~11 million tons combined) were the second largest in volume, followed by Russia, according to Statistica.com.
I'd like some of what she's smoking :D (yes I know she's only pricing bp at same levels as US peers)
Absolutely right meoryou. Why are these financial gurus still wage slaves. !!!
Presentation Q&A is the highlight of results day for me. I find myself shouting at the webcast ,as I do when Question Time is on TV, "why don't you ask them" ......
Linda from Barclays is my favourite. I love her positivity. BP 12 months share price target £10.00 for over a year now.
Very true, I liked the analyst push on buyback guidelines causing SP volatility - holds our execs accountable. However it reminds me of the following quote:
Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.
- Warren Buffett.
I just assume that if they were any good they would be so rich they wouldn’t have to work.
And since they still work they can’t really be much good.
The only time I find them useful is when they actually ask an interesting question at earnings call time.
Hi meoryou
Thanks, great post from you too and fully agree.
"Inflation,Interest Rates, and a recession are the issues going forward, and they seem less scary than even a month ago "
Agreed. Although there will be a time lag on interest rates feeding through to the economy and there is a fear or of possible overshoot on rises, to control inflation crashing the economy as we move into year end - early 2024 but If this was to happen, I di believe that demand for oil and supply issues will remain similar to now. Previous recessions have only seen a mild reduction in demand so I wouldn't be too concerned by a recession if it happened.
If your interested, here's a link to a webcast on oil demand and recessions.
Have a great day
https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/EventConsoleApollo.jsp?=&eventid=4186065&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=&format=fhvideo1&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=2BC5C72672000F949EBB4A17F61E6729&newConsole=true&nxChe=true&newTabCon=true&consoleEarEventConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=625155317&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=535491315&mediametricid=5900725&usercd=625155317&mode=launch&s=03
I do find it fascinating how misinformed the so called 'experts' are and their willingness to publish incoherent analyst notes on such short term thinking. It's like GS energy investment team (& bench) are more than willing to prove themselves wrong constantly... mind you they still pick up their six figs base + six figs bonus so what do they care
Just an example below of the incompetence and uselessness of taking seriously "expert' sector analysts.
Goldmine Sacha.
6th March
Oil could hit $107 by year end
19th March
GS no longer sees $100 this year
4th April
GS sees Oil possibly $100+ after Opec cuts
12th June
GS slashes year end to $86 on DEMAND concerns
Today
GS sees oil prices rising on record DEMAND !!!
So if we private investors get thing wrong from time to time we should cut ourselves some slack. The expert's opinions really have no more validity or value than our own.
Afternoon Mark
Another couple of excellent posts.
Think we may be no longer becalmed,and starting to get a tail of wind.
Inflation,Interest Rates, and a recession are the issues going forward, and they seem less scary than even a month ago.
Oil fundamentals look very strong.
I’m expecting the BPX business to do really well this set of results, as they were increasing take off capacity’s, and had 1 of 3 new systems in place at last results with 2 more to follow closely.Product( oil and gas) was already ready to take advantage of this extra take off capacity.
Onwards and Upwards