Member Info for wyndrum

because broker forecasts are not worth the paper they are written on, i'm afraid

it certainly is savage. I am looking to buy in but can't see a floor developing yet. It feels like a shake, the price drops, the MM's sit on their hands with their buy orders, this unsettles more holders who sell, and with the absence of any buys pushes it down further creating the vicious circle.
If it is a shake then the price will bounce but from where to how much who knows. If it doesn't bounce then there has been a genuine lack of buyers out there and I agree it seems disproportionate against the results.
Certainly does seem a huge over reaction.

yep, there is quite a strong shake out going on now.

Hey F15, this takes care of any equity raise going forward having got it out of the way now? I wonder, and this is just going off on one, given that debt did seem very manageable with no divs and the profit this year, that they might want to buy somebody.... (e scoter, or bike maker... Don't know.They might just be being very cautious. I just think the C19 is going to blow over sooner than people think either due to easy quick testing which is any day now, vaccine, or we just live with it and carry on. (its not actually a particularly deadly virus fortunately as these things go).

F15, fair enough but they made a profit this year and I think they are better placed now than a year ago. plus they have furloughed staff costs still helping and also no rates to pay either, so there is some help in there for this new year that was not mentioned. I also think their reference to reduced discretionary spending (which I get) is more likely to help them as its cheaper to get your essential car, looked after with HFD likewise cheaper (maybe) holidays in the Uk might also help them. I don't know, it just looks/feels too downbeat to me. Bur hey ho, time will tell as it always does.

Pooley, I think it will be less bumpy than you imagine. The thing that struck me as unduly negative, was their 3 forecasts, with the best one being not that great. It seems to hinge around bike sales good but less margin, motor repair/service good but had fallen dramatically in lockdown but starting to pick up. I think new car sales are likely to suffer over the next 12 months which means more used cars staying in the system which will need repair/servicing MOTs etc. So I see HFD doing very well in fact through this over coming months as well as bikes. I was also surprised may have missed it but no reference to E Bikes, and little forward guidance on the improved margins that they have introduced (which was encouraging). The whole report seemed to gloss over as much good news as they could but accentuated the negative. This strikes me as very odd but I think something (good for the SP) is a foot. Now is not the time to sell imo

Lets, the only reason I respond (on any board that uses these types of terms) is because, like all games, this one is also played between the ears. Psychology is supremely important in understanding the markets and as a result words matter hugely. The insight gained by understanding peoples views is the difference between winning and losing (over the long term). I am not suggesting anything to any person here because I know none of you. But my experience has been that "investors" typically, generally, are emotionally lazy and scared. If a share falls they just hold it for longer. They cannot pull the trigger and take a loss, much preferring to put off the decision for another year, and console themselves that they are in it for the long term, this is just bump in the road, just market conditions. you name an excuse they will run with it.
Fear and greed are the 2 single most important emotions that drive people and stock picking is perfect for feeding on both.
So, again to say, nothing at all personal to anybody here but I do think words matter as a potential insight to what is really being said. ( And for the record I think HFD are going SP wise, to do well over the coming days and weeks.)
GLA

Lets, I would suggest, its pretty irrelevant as to views on whether or not how well HFD have coped over the last 3 months, and more as to what price was paid by the individual for the stock. I am not remotely bitter, I am just amused as always when people who buy shares somehow see themselves as "investors" when the news is not as good as hoped, and the price is down because "Speculators" have sold.
However if I am not understanding your post and speculators simply are basing their initial decision on "faith" then wow.... you think a professional gambler, sorry investor, has more insight to the future. and can fortell it better? (I mean, I guess every investor, sold out at some time yesterday knowing the shares would fall on opening and then smartly bought in again at 158p?)

If I still don't understand what you are trying to say then I apologise. But it kills me that people seem to have this view that they are Investors and always like to come across as superior to speculators, gamblers, traders, whoever, pick your term, when all, all are doing is trying to make money. The goal is identical. the terms pointless.

Lets , so the difference is, one is informed and makes a rational decision in weighing up the risks and the other doesn't? Are you really, really, trying to tell me that that is what separate an investor from a speculator! Ha ha ha ha.

Ah, the professional gambler, sorry investor, labouring long and hard... (how virtuous....).. So the speculator who bought at 1469 and sells 2 weeks later at 180p making just shy of 25% is actually an investor then?

Oh do tell whats the difference between a speculator and a investor. I mean clearly speculators want to make money and investors want to... um... oh, ...maybe specualtors want to make money quickly and investors want to make money um..slowly....? Are all the sells today speculators or could possibly some have been investors, how would you know... do they wear different clothes, walk strangely, as I say do tell what the difference is because every board I have ever been on trots this out when the market marks down a share on news. I mean, its never speculators that buy a share on good news apparently is it....

Well, in for a penny.... seems cheap now so got more at 162.20

I think the lack of a divi is also ****ing off the market generally. I think ,the markets think, suspending divi's in the march to june period for companies reporting was fair enough but the picture is clearer now and it is starting to look like an excuse rather than a prudent measure, and as I say it starting to tick them off and they are punishing companies..
Anyway looks like 166p is in play. which looks a solid entry point now going forward for the next 6-12 months. I think this is a £250p share at some stage, probably in the 6 month update.

Not bad, strong recovery play, profits similar to 2019 when the SP was in in and around 250p. They sound over cautious to me which suggests going forward they will surprise the market. I would expect to see director buying this year. Don't really know what the market was expecting so no idea of opening price.

And not for nothing I would be super, super, wary of being vaccinated by a rushed through trial. So much so that I would refuse any vaccine for c19 that is ready in the timeframes discussed by GSK & Astra Z. There is a reason it takes as long as it normally does and in the great scheme of things this is not a particularly deadly virus, so there is no imperative to cut corners on this at all.

I think if the company proves it has a profitable model then the £7.5m cash balance should get then valued into the SP so there should be a permanent lift there. However one update, assuming its profitable, won't be enough on its own (unless its a gangbusters update, which I don't think it will be), I think there is every chance of a 1.75- 2.p move in and around the update.
Assuming all is ok and EVE are and continuing to move forwards then 4p looks to be a target over 12-18 months I guess?

How long do you hold sharer? well that's a very individual thing I guess. I will share some thoughts on this fwiw.
I don't see any difference in the terms Investor or trader, at some stage you buy a share and then you sell it. What difference does it make if you sell it after a day or 10 years? What length of time when holding a share do you stop being a trader and become an investor? I think when you look at it like this it becomes difficult to draw any line or distinction between these terms. However psychologically, it seems to matter to people quite a lot. Investor good, (virtuous, not greedy, calm, etc) Trader bad,( shark, gambler, makes money at others expense, manipulative etc).
But to me the most important thing is time. Time is the one thing we have that is limited and we can't get back. Therefore in terms of holding a stock, I think it is essential to decide what profit you want to make over what timescale. That I think, should be the criteria that people apply when deciding to buy . By having a plan it simplifies the thought process and makes decision making in the future easier. (its too easy and more importantly, lazy, when a stock goes down to decide to keep holding because in a year or 2 it will "probably" go up again.
Time, that's the thing, its all about time.

Ha! I spoke too soon....

If Eve have been running at approx. breakeven (100k loss per month) then presumably on sales above this figure apart from cost of production, profits must fall to bottom line. It would be nice to know what the margin was? A I have said before its not a cheap retail figure so it should be quite healthy. Certainly EVE need to be showing a real, demonstrable, no caveat, profit with this update I think. I can't see the market accepting any more treading of water.

given the spike to 184p this morning it looks as though it has come back to the "resistance" of 177p but now 177p is acting as a support and allowing buyers to get on board here for the next leg up. But, lets see where we are at the close of play.

big week I think. 80p has gone so 75p is the next test. if it falls below 75p then 68p is on the cards and if that shoul go then there is no support.
I think it will be 68p where it will in fact go to shortly, and the buyers and sellers will slug it out there.
Just on the update, I don't know if Kier will need to raise funds through equity or not, but if it is say, unlikely, then it was poor judgement to flag it to the market. If it was not poor judgement then it would seem Davis is preparing the market for this outcome. So he is either incompetent or some form of shareholder dilution is coming. Great.....

the 166p ish target was imo significant as there had been much support & resistance around that price over the last 12 months. The face that it went through easily and quite a bit beyond is very positive. the 177p (give or take) has also had a history of being an important level but not quite as defining as the 166p level, but still if it goes through that, and with the current momentum I would expect that to happen, then its off to 216p (there is a little bit of resistance at 185p but not much and I won't be hanging on that one, the recent spike to 196p is also imo immaterial. (Its not likely to be a straight line of course, it never is but for instance I would not in normal circumstances be surprised to see it go back to 166p before going up again, the movement between these support/resistance level is just noise and chartists ignore them. If it did fall back to 166p then I would expect a lot of buys then to get on board. The market usually gives you a chance to buy or sell even if you missed it the first time). But the force is strong on this rise so I would expect 177p to come under fire on Monday and settle around it and then the next leg up or move down will come form the reaction to the results on Tuesday. just my opinion GLA