Member Info for wyndrum

No Easy "Might be a bit deep this but a question for the chartists. I know that your charts follow the share price but are they in reality (generally) highlighting human emotional patterns not the value of the stock."

That's exactly what charts do. Charts are just a graphical representation of buy & sells and as its people that buy and sell it shows precisely where sentiment is. (That's why I use charts. FA just looks at potential for the company, which has little or nothing to do with the SP. The SP shows the value of the company, not in a general or theoretical sense, but in reality!

Charting is all and only about people

That's all right SG, you do what makes you feel comfortable, but I would point out that what are you comparing TA to? what system is better then? What system does not have caveats? What company has not been affected by genuinely unexpected news? I was in BP when the oil rig blew up? I was not in banks when the Financial crisis hit but as that took everything down it was a bit moot.
I was hit initially with the covid pandemic but sold almost everything at a 30-40% hit and reinvested on swings and within 3 months everything was fine. (its been a very easy, target rich environment since then.)

I would also draw your attention to AVCT as this has bee waiting breaking news for 9 months (apparently its tomorrow now), and the general consensus has always been "you would not want to be out of this over the weekend/Tomorrow/this afternoon.."

So I dutifully hunkered down but when I lost patience with LTBH, as soon as I decide to trade it (from November) its been very straight forward and more importantly profitable. I mention this only because its a stock where imminent RNS news will "blow the SP out of the water".

The profits from trading AVCT have gone into AGL up 58% and here a modest 15% overall as I have bought in at continually higher levels and only over a few weeks as it only cropped up my radar very recently.

(I still have a core holding in AVCT but I have more paper wealth now than I would have had I just stuck with AVCT. )

So, a few % here and there over half a dozen trades, compounded up and really its not long before its a lump of money.

So I understand completely your reservations, but the drawbacks as you see them, are not always actually there. And if you can find a system that works, then the profits are perhaps greater than you imagine.

But as always, each to his own. Its your choice and your money, so more power to your elbow :0)
(PS I think your buying from a TA perspective at a pretty good price!)

so, just to sum up. we were to have CE mark end of Q1 its now the second half of Q2. previous excuses was poor old Duke's demise, and local council elections .(Sounds even more ridiculous now than then doesn't it?)

The latest today is that we have had CE all along but told no one and at the same time have not told anyone we have a test for sale.

I don't know about you lot but this is ridiculous. Its meant to be a bloody investment, not a game of Cluedo with half the pieces missing!

I know, I know I can sell...blah blah blah , .... save your breath.....

I am pretty sure we covered this just at the weekend SG.

But 1: Do you actually want "advice" or 2: is this a rhetorical question to reinforce your belief that charts are of no value.

I will accept it was made in good faith.

TA DOES NOT PREDICT THE FUTURE. (just for emphasis.) What it can do is under interpretation, increase the odds of deciding where the next move will be (up or down)

TA IS ALSO ABOUT MONEY MANAGEMENT. It is a technique used for people who do not want or believe in LTB&H as the most cost effective way to maximise profits.

The 2 things above are essential in understanding what TA can and can't do. And criticising it for not doing things outside its remit is not helpful. (A bit like complaining a car is not all useful that when asking how fast it goes across a lake and then deriding the inventor when it sinks.)

right now my interpretation of the SP (not the company, remember the SP has nothing to do with the company), is that it is in a broad trading range of 17.90p -23.00p. Because TA is also about money management and therefore minimising risk, it is saying that a break and close above 23p is likely to be a good entry point as it is likely, once through it, not to go below it.

However over the last week there have been numerous highs of 21p so if one wanted to get in at a lower entry point than 23p plus, then a break and close above 21p is available but at a higher risk than 23p and therefore means it has a higher chance of falling back below 21p

Using just TA you could quite happily buy in anywhere now, with a stop loss at around 19p.

Because there is a strong money management angle to TA most TA people would not buy so far away from the stop loss, but if you like the company and you were not around at 19.1p or whatever, then you either buy now or to minimise the risk of any capital loss, wait until 23p is surpassed.

There is nothing wrong with LTBH except you can spend years waiting for it to push on and maybe, just maybe, that money tied up in a stock going sideways for a long period, could have used elsewhere more productively.

TA and FA are intimately linked, FA generates the news, TA makes sense of peoples reaction to it.

ha ha ST, that was good!!
Not trading still accumulating. (I expect a final top up when 23p is broken)

BB, the best way to use charts, is not to second guess them. ASnd of course they will look different.

If you are LTBH then I guess you switch off for 2-5 years and revisit the SP then? If you are checking every day what the SP is doing and reading BB's like this, suggests you are not LTH, but simply have the expectation that over the long term you will profit. (And actually that's not quite the same thing, because if there was to be very bad news tomorrow and you found out straight away and sold all your stock, you were not a LT holder, you simply were "trading" the stock when your expectations changed and the timescales originally forecast become, in fact irrelevant .

No Aim I'm not saying it won't move the SP. I am saying that the market and therefore the SP has already built in the expectation of the RNS.

We are assuming that the RNS will be very positive, however guess if it wasn't? the drill bit broke, the machine broke down its going to take longer to get a result and now it will be the end of July not June?

I don't "expect" any of that to happen, but the SP reflects all known knowledge and views of the stock out there and until it gets the positive RNs it reflects the current risk.

When it gets de-risked further then the SP will rise.

If you think about it, its only news that moves a SP whether its on a rumour of news or actual news. All the SP is telling (in this case me), what the next likely move will be, and its up.

The perceived impact of RNS's are largely over done on SP movements unless it is genuinely out of the blue news. (imo)

HE1 starting drilling is hardly in that category.

looks like it's just coming back to test, the now supportive, 21,1p floor.

except Bigbench, (and this is a critical thing to take on board), the current SP ALREADY knows that.

I have more confidence in charts than L2, and we are now trading above 21.1p so if it closes above that then I would take that that further rises are more likely than not. (And fwiw if anybody is interested I continue to accumulate and have done so at this higher SP just now)

Dean, you will get better explanations then I will give now, but basically Level 2 (L2) allows (typically if you have paid for it), a view of different prices in the book of people who will to buy and sell at certain prices in certain quantities in and around the current SP.

The theory is that by looking at L2 one can discern where the trend or likely SP will go to. So a "Strong L2" is the posters belief that demand for the shares is positive and therefore likely to rise.

That's all well and good but those prices can be altered in a flash and mean generally nothing that you can profit from. (Maybe its possible on very short term trading). However, having read BB's in numerous stocks over the years and I have yet, ever, to see a L2 prediction come to anything or anything that could be profited from and in fact in most cases the reverse happens.

For example L2 could have been very strong with potential buys when the SP was 23p. How would that have helped subsequently?

I am not a fan of L2, simply because it doesn't help increase the chances of maximising profits.

No Prof, 275p is the resistance, that is the level that is "stopping" the SP rising above. (The top of Trading Ranges are the resistance and the bottom of these ranges are supports)

241p was a support within a broader trading range and the bottom of that TR is the mid 230's (233, 235, 236p)

As you can see that support has remained and has not been breeched so far.

If 233p was to go then its down to 214p or thereabouts. Buts so far so good with 235p ish holding up.

As always (imo) the SP tells you all you need to know and reflects "breaking news" much quicker than us lot can work it out.

Scardey, I think MASS testing in the UK is done. I have always said testing will be needed, but just not on the scale some posters here think. I have also stated that if AVCT do get global orders then the UK becomes irrelevant and the SP will be fine.

The solution is vaccines. Countries that can't afford to vaccinate won't be able to afford to test. (in any great number)

I don't remember us talking about this in April.

But obviously I could be wrong. and as new info comes in I will reconsider. I mean, that's all we do here, join dots and make guesses. And my guesses to be fair, have been a lot less wild than some of the £10 by Christmas variety we have had here for 12 months.

Dip, that makes the most sense to me.
Assuming the govt has, in fact been talking to avct for a long time and that AS has not been lying through his teeth, then this has a certain logic to it.

The innova test is well known and familiar. They license avct affimers, which then allows the nasal swab to be accurate. Its in this country, it promotes and increases UK production immediately into a main player, ticks the box of sovereign supplier.

So, I think there is a better than evens chance that Innova is going to use AVCT tech.

I don't understand the reference. have you a link please?

Im not on twitter?

Tim, Because at that time AS stated very early May for the CE mark, so there was nothing to do but wait. The Chart was (and still is) in a trading range waiting for something to happen.

Now as we approach the end of May with no CE mark yet and its starting to look like even having a test for sale in the EU in May (as AS stated) will be at best, cutting it fine. As for the Uk, seriously who knows when. Do you?

So given a CE Mark that was signposted around end of Q1 is now closer to the end of Q2 suggests that something has moved, shifted or changed. So I am posting my thoughts.

But some seem to think its just my perceived shareholding that makes the difference. (The implication has to be I can move the market or coerce people to their shares) which is rubbish and the reason we all know its rubbish, is because, the vast majority of posts on this BB are very positive, in which case is the SP only as high as it is based on this BB?

I don't think so and I don't think anybody else here does either. So why is it only posters who question the majority view here get that label or criticism?

What about Sujood? you think he isn't irresponsible?

But Sujood is just a bit of fun I guess and not to be taken seriously?

I think its just Sujood tells you what you want to hear and I sometimes don't.

jmfw, I don't know any more than you but it seems to me, reading between the lines, that govts seem to recognise that this is not a unique event in any way and that more will follow.

Exactly when and how severe who knows, but given Sars, Mers, this one , they come every few years and this is the one that seemed to be the most contagious and how quickly it debilitated the world economy (because that's all govts care about) and therefore they don't want to be in this position again.

Where it seems the world has been "lucky"is that however deadly it has been it has not been on a scale that maybe was feared when looking at past pandemics.

Ultimately as I am aware I am repeating myself, this for some time (since the vaccine roll out started in Nov) has been all about defeating the "next" one.

This one largely is done, in terms of the worlds reaction to it (not the suffering now and that still has to come for some), but simply the solution ie vaccines and boosters and yes, sure testing but not on the scale I imagined last year.

PAHOO your analysis of me is clouded by your assumptions on my motives and stock holding. PL came, through his unfortunate bitter, sarcastic, miserable view on people who don't agree with him to a false view of me which given he can never admit he is wrong about anything, will never allow him to change his simplistic narrow view on a limited range of subjects.

I may have been off beam with some of the examples I used to highlight more general points I was making and I accept your valid criticism. But I think I have actually been more right in my forward analysis than wrong.

I said In November when the vaccines very first were released how quickly the world would get its act together and by and large it has, I said in Feb we would have no test until May and then moved it to July, so far that has proved accurate, so forgive me with my inexperienced and less than perfect knowledge of the technology, my conclusions are so far not a million miles away what so far has come to pass.

I just think this BB is the perfect place to discuss alternative scenario's to see if we can see something that has genuinely been overlooked, because that is when we can make better investment decisions.

But I feel as with PL, you and I will never come to an understanding of why I post what I do.

ROCE is indeed a good indicator, however there is a big distinction between the company and its SP. It can for instance fritter away its cash and not transfer that cash generation back to the Share holders having a poor effect on the SP. I am not accusing Boohoo of this but when will the SP catch up to the how good the company is? And if it hasn't yet why should it in the future? What assumptions will all you make to justify this re-rate?

What does BH have to do more that it has already demonstrated thus far to be rerated? If it has to do more, then is that reasonable? Can this giant value making machine accelerate away from where it is now?