RE: The end of the Trend29 May 2021 09:05
I agree Prae, with your observation that you get e chartists in a room and different predictions! There could be various reasons for this. Possibly they are not very good, or are over complicating things.
When I day traded I used a whole host of indictors overlaying the chart pattern and the theory was if they ALL said the same thing then BINGO!, except it was very very rare for all the ducks to llne up so, you get impatient (killer), and start to look for what you want to see etc. disaster always follows.
Anyway, while I can't defend (and don't need to) others, I would just address your other reasonable point about HE1 specifically "Any trends forming don't take in to account the drilling starting - "
Except they do...
The logic is that everything that is known about HE1 is already reflected in the SP. on that basis the SP reflects drilling is starting in the next week or two.
So when you look at the chart (although purely on TA terms, you as a chartist don't know about whats due to happen), you see a breakout over 21p has occurred and it has just dropped back very slightly but you see a trend of higher lows and higher highs, with a clear assault of the ATH of 23p. which suggests a breakout is coming.
Depending on the risk appetite you could buy in now or wait for 21.5p to come into play but that is just a recent high in this small upward trend and you would expect it to be broken anyway.
So you buy now with a stop either very tight at 20p or to be completely convinced the upward trend had finished, 19.4p (at the close).
The fact that it might explode any day to 30p (i don't why everybody says 30p but lets join in ;0)) and it was not predicted per se, the upward move was and guess what, you got lucky.
(Except it was not random luck, over a longer period there had recently been very sharp moves upwards from 7p end of march and it looks more obvious than not that the recent small moves from 19p-23p are just a breather before another lurch up. All of this builds a picture to further upward moves being more likely than not.
I won't bore you with stop losses and risk reward ratios other than just to say, money management is a key part of TA because you don't expect to get every call right. so the gains overall, have to out weigh the losses. Most who lose at trading on any timescale, don't ultimately have a good money management system that they adhere to. (Its the old saying of "run your winnings and cut your losses" and as odd as it may sound that, psychologically, is very hard to do!)
Anyway, that what I see
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