Member Info for wyndrum

SG, a close above 21.1p would be indicative of further upward moves, a break and close above 23p would be more positive still , to bring in new buyers.

I think it sometimes gets overlooked, that for the SP to advance there have to be buyers, and small high risk companies like this attracts that type of risk-appreciating investor and once that investor has bought, then the market can be a little barren of new buyers until the company has de-risked further to attract a new type of buyer.

Which all seems very frustrating to many here who can only see the no-brainer, huge potential....

another look at 21.1p.... its quite exciting ..in a very, not-really-that-exciting sort of way.....

I imagine it has not happened because its not been advertised on their or anybody else's website, as available to order.

Not sure you can keep that off an RNS.... but hey who knows, and I am becoming past caring...

Is that when you normally get up SM? Otherwise why 7:00am?

If we don't get an intraday ine today I doubt Govt depts. work over the weekend, so either intraday Monday or just some time next week. (Its got to be next week otherwise I don't think the product will be on sale within May)

Its a slow day to day:

Forgive me Yanis if this does not apply to you at all but I have sees this type of post many, many times on all BB and forums
"...if it drifts lower I will be adding more." The implication being you have funds read and waiting to top up.

How much lower? (it was 4,3p when you posted this.) 4.2p. 4.1p, lower?
If it is 3.5p would you not think if it has fallen to 3.5p it might fall further still and decide to wait a bit more?

You may have a very clear plan, but I highlight this not because you personally posted it, but just as an example of a very well worn sentiment and it always comes across to me as the poster does not actually mean it, or if they do its so woolly as to be pointless and more likely a psychological crutch to reassure themselves that the falling SP is not a negative but actually an opportunity to buy more, but without actually buying any more.

You could have said, "I am buying at this level because its a steal", or "I am just waiting for 4.2p and then topping up."

Or if you are waiting for a bigger fall, explain why you expect it to go there and again express a positive view as to what you will do.

I am genuinely not having a go at you at all so agian please accept this as a broad post to all out there who have similar thoughts.

This type of post, more often than not, tends to be a bit of a need for reassurance of the initial position taken and a concern that it is presently not working out as expected and the F&G emotions are kicking in and playing with the mind.

(Of course I might be so off beam here and can therefore only apologise for using your post to make a very general point!)

ATB

I keep seeing this "30p drilling" figure?

What is this based on? is it just a figure randomly plucked out of the air that some want to see, or is there a rational valuation being applied?

Yannis No.

This is absolutely typical of a small, news-dry company. I would be surprised if there was a TU at the AGM.
People get bored when nothing happens and drift off to what they perceive to be greener pastures.

It was being shorted the SP would be collapsing, not just drifting in a trading range.

Maestro,

Both side of this argument have been posted numerous times over the last few weeks...….

looks like the 21.1p resistance is being looked at. Interesting to see if it breaks today.

GK, I think the market accepts AVCT have a test and that currently it looks to be commercially viable and that a relatively small amount of monthly test supports the SP. (5m per month?)

What I think the delay's effect will have on the SP is the ultimate bounce on the SP from the potential orders coming through.

Its difficult to discuss this bit, as much as I try, but how long do we think "mass testing" will go on for?
(I said last year it would be 12-18 months (just a speculation obviously), others through longer, but every month that passes closes the window on the longevity of the income form Mass testing.

So we are getting to about 9 months on that window (I think we expected a test realistically by august last year?).

AS said we were months away which sounds like July but then says we will be selling into Europe in May? So I am pretty confused as to what, when and how much.

Never mind the outrage this post may or may not engender, this is meant to be an investment and its getting ever more opaque to make a judgement on where the SP might rise to, given the never ending delays to market.

GB, the SP will tell us all how the presentation was received.

My experience is to pretty much discard what any CEO says: They are so biased and they HAVE to exaggerate all their company's achievements and expectations.

RNS's are the only ones you can half rely on, but interviews and presentations are always more upbeat than the reality. (imo)

Well, I hope he is wrong for his sake because if there is an RSN tomorrow, then that's insider trading...….

If not, then I don't quite know why so many indulge him as he is just a fantasist.

BB, I used the potential of this stock to highlight how big the difference in overall returns could be on such a big multibagger.

The £20k difference in outcomes is double the initial stake, so no, I was not being pedantic.

This particular stock has great potential to rise to much higher levels, but given that typically most would happily take 10-15% annual gain on their investments, increasing the profit margin by a few % let alone 10%, for each purchase is, over time, incredibly significant.

It just comes back to whether or not you can time entry to stocks better than just randomly buying on any given day at any given time.. I think you can, that's all.

Seagulls, Ok, but of course its all unknown, all TA is doing is trying to show what move in the SP is more likely.

The criticism of TA being hind sight or past experience, is as valid as valuing any other company. What is the typical success failure rate of exploration companies? What is the current/past cost of helium? what is the historical weather pattern in that part of Tanzania, How long typically does it take to construct a well site.? etc etc

All of the info that you are making value judgements on in your system (which I am not rubbishing), is based on previous info and experience of others in similar situations and environments and trying to transpose them over into the particular unique aspects of this project/company and then make a FUTURE projection.

The only bit that I think is mostly ignored in value investment strategies is that everything that is known about a company is already in the current SP.

The Late Jim Slater wrote a seminal book called "The Zulu Principle" many years ago, where expert knowledge that the PI could research, could in fact give them an edge over professionals who simply did not have the time to do such research. However in this digital age, that edge has been (imo) severely eroded if it exists at all.

So when all this dissection and speculation about seismic reports and pulling apart every word from every report, well that info is already out there, and the SP has reacted accordingly.

If you want to buy now its on the premise that the Drilling will be successful, but we all know the unknowns, Seals, actually finding viable commercial quantities of HE, the Govt Tax on HE that will follow a discovery. All of this may turn out well, but it may not. Its a judgement call based on the info you know at present.

Personally I don't see the difference in the way the methodologies are constructed between FA and TA (You look at the past to see if it can point to a likely future outcome)

The big difference is that TA focuses on the SP and FA on the company and that is a very important distinction between the two.
Its TA that is actually looking at the only thing that maters because it will be the SP that determines the entry and exit price and therefore the success or failure of the transaction for the individual.

Anyway, that's my take. But I have done enough times to know my timing is not "random luck"

Cheers

As you know seagulls I would argue the "luck" bit of when you buy.

I believe that the individual can improve the odds of timing entry better.

And in fact without a system of timing entry, I would contest that psychologically most PI's actually get it wrong more often than right and therefore its not "random luck" that should wash out over enough buys.

Without a plan buyers will be at the mercy of FOMO. and as we all know that's a wild beat to tame within the individual.

I don't know Bar, looking at the results in Jan of this year they booked £3m profit on a 100m of sales. 3% profit margin.... you have to wonder what their breakeven is, plus if they are accelerating away, are Eve keeping up or are they taking Eve customers?

So many unknowns: until there is an EVE TU its impossible to know.

BB, think it does matter:

You have 10K you buy at 18p = 55,555 shares
You have 10K you buy at 22p = 45,454 Shares

SP rises to 200p x 55,555 shares = £ 111,110
SP rises to 200p x 45,454 shares = £ 90,908

difference £20,202

Timing is everything

Always possible Maestro but probably a bit distant if at all.

My thinking would be: France going better than expected so want more money to really crack it, but with £8m in the bank I would expect it to last longer before the need to ask for more and the longer the time frame the greater the results from France would be to support a further placing.

If that was the case then the SP would rise on the back of asking for more money.

The downside is that money is being spent quicker than expected and/or there has been an unforeseen slowdown in sales increasing cash burn, in which case it would not be received well.

Who knows, but I think it demonstrates that EVE is not out of the woods yet. Still high risk but if all goes well , high returns should follow.

A quiet period has descended now and a trading range is in play between 17.9p and 23p.

So to be cautious some might wait for 23p to be broken before buying but an earlier indication of potential sustained upward movement would be a break and close above a recent high of 21.1p.

On the downside there is a small target figure of 19.1 p but I personally don't think that has much merit as a support but if 17.9p were broken then 14.3p would be the next support.

Otherwise any other price movement is all what TA would regard as just "noise" and of no importance.

Hi UN, well, you seem to have a decent handle on what you are doing so good luck.

I keep popping back here because its the best BB I have come across. Different views are expressed, nobody loses their rag, generally there is no ramping or de ramping, and it is a pleasant place to be. Even when I particularly go OT, this board is very understanding and tolerant.

As for EVE's prospects in , I am very much on the fence. I need to see hard facts about improvement on profits. I am pretty sure sales will be improved but if it does not lead to a profitable business, then whats the point?

I have said before but as a principal , I would rather get in at 7p or 8p p on a big bounce on a very good TU then buy at 4p now and "hope" that the TU will be very good.

I just look for percentage gains on my deals. I have recently changed the type of stock I buy and am holding longer for bigger gains. This is unusual for me but having taken this course I need to let it play out.

EVE, looks to be a long play but for me, I don't see the allure in buying now for a 18 month period where the outcome is very unclear so I keep an eye out here but mainly its just to stay in touch with the posters here.
(You are to a Man & Woman , a very nice bunch imo!)