Member Info for wyndrum

ST, let it go. You are not interested in TA to the extent you wish to "prove" it doesn't work. Fine. (What tics me off is how quickly it gets personalised. which helps nobody)

I have nothing to prove, either to you or anybody else. It works for me. As I say I pass on my experience in good faith.

I have posted on various boards, be it AGL, EVE, BMN and AVCT of SP areas where I thought it would indicate an action that were "correct". AVCT was in Dec at 107p where I said it was a good entry point. The SP never went lower after that. BMN only recently, that reversal was underway and so far so it has proved. And today here, I mentioned before the bell I would not be buying at the current price of 22.7p as I expected it to go lower. (These are just a few quick ones I recall. But I don't trade that often. Its a game of patience for the most part.)

I have nothing to prove, either to you or anybody else. It works for me. As I say I pass on my experience in good faith.

You have your system and it works for you. (I think its crazy but that doesn't matter, it works for you and if it didn't work for me, (FA) it was probably because I was no good at it.

(The bit FA folk don't seem to get is that the SP already reflects all knowledge out there. All the fundamentals are already represented in the SP at any given time, anyway, so I think FA is useful, but overrated... but here's the thing... Who cares?

Noix, there are a lot of books out there to choose from and they pretty much all say the same thing. One of the common themes is you have to find your own "system" which is pretty disheartening when you are starting out but I have (eventually) found mine and it works very well for me.

I don't day trade any more and just mess about now as a hobby. Once I find a stock I want to buy I look for an entry point. I keep it super simple for shares and so far so good.

Today is a good example as I said before the bell, I would not buy as a fall was more likely than not (I had it in my mind at 95% likely). I saw potentially 20.6p as a target and when it fell to 20.8p I committed to that price having seen it recover quite strongly previously during the day. if it does go on to fall to 20.6 then I will be have the satisfaction of getting it bang on but I am satisfied that the amount of difference between what I paid and what it might go to is too small to worry about. So during the day I slightly altered my position. And that's the thing. I can't explain exactly why I shifted the goal post. But my experience and my desire to increase my holding on a volatile share made me be flexible.

Yesterday when I was reading of people topping up around 24p I thought, Yikes! but what do I know? really, what do I know?it could have gone on to 30p! I just though that it was much, much more likely to go down from there.

I don't really care how much I make, its just a mind game for me to see how close I get to a bottom level and if my "analysis" turns out to be correct.

I pass on my experience in good faith but it is not always accepted as such. Good luck

Thanks Igrow,

Having bought and sold (since I was a teenager) and lost more than I made, I wondered if it was a puzzle and was there a solution? And that's when I found out about TA.

But its taken me a long time to quell the emotional side and to "trust" what works most of the time.

Its all to do with emotion and its easy to see when reading any post on a BB, the "Fear & Greed" motivators to peoples opinions.

The bottom line (for me) as to whether or not TA can work is to understand its about the psychology of crowds. Its people who buy & sell shares and its therefore they that move the SP. Whether its a punt, an expectation of a good drilling report or just an appreciation that the earning potential of the company looks promising, its their actions that move the SP.

If you accept that it is the relationship between buyers & sellers that move the SP then the next step is to decide whether or not their actions are predictable. If you believe they are not then you are pretty much doing away with psychiatry and understanding that under certain conditions, peoples reactions can be predicted.

Its much easier to do that with a crowd rather than an individual. Hence various tomes on "the Madness of Crowds"!
And Money is a great emotional motivator and if you then couple it with Fear & greed as two of the most powerful emotions then you have got yourself a ballgame.

Anyway, that was why I thought there was a solution to the puzzle and it then took me a lot of time as I said up top, to figure it out to my advantage.

But each to his own. Nothing is full proof and whatever consistently works for the individual is the plan to stick to.

I'm not sure if this is helpful as some opinions are so entrenched that it makes a discussion on this very difficult so perhaps for the last time:
Logically fundamentals are lagging indicators of the SP. For instance the SP reflects currently the potential, not the actual value of the company. So when people buy and sell shares they are looking into the future. And those same people have different risk appetites and time scales and funds to apply, so the SP is naturally very fluid from day to day.

Charting is all about the most likely next outcome. Its not predicting the future.

Currently this stock is in "overbought" territory, it was on Friday and is now even more over bought after yesterdays further rise. This means that it is more likely than not to have a down day or two, or to retrace. It does not mean it can't or won't go up again today, but the odds are against it, that's all. The further over bought it becomes the bigger the retrace is likely to be.

This is not meant to be contentious or revolutionary in thought.

It seems to be assumed that if you use charts you are a "trader" and that is, to many here somehow a bad thing? Also if you are a "trader" then it is also assumed by many that you day trade. These assumptions (like all assumptions) often lead to incorrect conclusions.

Personally, and only as an example, I am looking to increase my holding here. However I will not buy at the current level as I expect it is more likely to fall from this price than increase. However, It may not and it may rise to 30p, say, and fall back to 26p before I decide to get in.

So my entry could be above what it is today. But that doesn't matter. What does matter, is that very reliable indicators say its prudent to wait.

I don't know what's going to happen next but I will be patient, using a methodology that is proven to me, to help secure best value (risk/reward) entry and exit price .

Somehow and for reasons I don't fully understand FA stock pickers are terribly competitive about which "method" produces the best results, in a way that chartists actually are not. (Many of my posts when commented on in a negative way, raise points that are not actually what I say in the post.

So I am not "predicting" today will be a down day, simply saying I think its more likely than not. And if today is an up day at the close, then the odds are even greater tomorrow that it will retrace.

D: This not advice but you can buy for 114p now and the daily intraday RSI is at 40 which is typically at a point where by its good value to rise again when in an upward trend. just my opinion)

Thanks all, for your replies:
Mr ST, you said:
"For me, I have my targets and it way higher than an mere 100p I can assure you."

That's a great reply because it encapsulates most here I would think: Which then leads to the obvious follow up: what is your target and by when? And what happens if it get there before you expected or, does not get to where you expected in the timeframe? What will you do then?

Its a bit rhetorical, obviously, and I imagine, the "answer" would be "it depends" .

The only reason I posted this as a pastime, was sometimes it helps concentrate the mind for some of us to think, or remind ourselves of what we did at the outset, and has it matched up to expectation, and what will we do if it meets or disappoints?

As I say, my experience is, is that it is easy to buy the stock in the first place, but much harder to decide when to sell, in whatever circumstance we find ourselves in, with our selection.

Trick, tricky game this....

Noob, What I want and by when, is of no real use (or interest really, I guess), to anyone else.

There are so many different situations and methodologies used in this pursuit that to me, its impossible to comment or have a dialogue on a forum like this (a BB). For every one person that might be interested there are 10 that are bored by it (and that's fair enough!).

The few things I have learnt that I think is worthwhile trying to pass on, is that for all the research we do (whatever form that takes), its a bit of a crapshoot as to whether we win or lose and by how much.

And that the emotional drivers are what propels us to make the decisions we do. Greed & Fear... Those two will try and wring you out every time.

If you can control them and eliminate them as a goal, then you improve the odds dramatically in winning (ie making money). That's why some sort of plan (in my opinion, I must stress this, its just my opinion), is needed.

Many will be admit to being flexible but I believe that flexibility must be constrained by some sort of boundary, a perimeter whereby at a certain stage you make a decision even if it seems at odds of your "better judgement" . Otherwise there probably are not any rules in reality, and that is where the potential road of losses looms!!

This game is largely psychological and the"market" is not a benign place where people simply come to trade shares. Its a device to take money from you and every trick in the book is at play to achieve that. Its not a coincidence that most PI's lose money.

As I say its just a quiet BK Hol so I am just rambling... please all feel free to ignore all of this, because my opinion is of no more value than anybody else's

well, its bank holiday Monday and its raining...

Obviously there is no set answer:

Starting at the beginning, its easy (very easy) to pick a share and just as easy to spend £1000's on it in a few seconds.
(I have come across without trying, 4 x "once in a life time opportunities" with AVCT, ANGL, HE1 and MBN) just in the last 6-12 months). and without trying I mean I have done no research, just stumbled without looking, over them.

The first common sense thing to realise is these things are generally over rated and don't happen as quickly as you want or have been led to expect, and also contrary to most BB,'s it not quite as "nailed on" as they would have you believe.

Anyway, you have bought your stock.
What do you want from it? Ok to make a profit, but how much? 10%, 50%, a 100% or even multi bag?
Over what timescale? 1 week , 1 month 1 year, or 10 years?

And this is where, I think, it gets tricky.
but I think its worth going back to question 1: What do you really want?

The profit in itself is not the goal. The goal is an amount of money so you can cash in and spend it. (money for its own sake is worthless, and saving is after all, only deferred spending).
So we want to make money through stock picking to spend on other things.
So pick a number, and then once have that money you will cash in and use it for the important things of life.
Then once you have whatever your goal is in a number, you have to pick a timescale to achieve it.

fwiw, and it just my personal experience), it is hellishly hard to get rich quick, but relatively easy to get rich slow. (Yes you will hear of people doing it quickly but I liken it to the lottery. Somebody wins a million every week, but it will never likely be me. but I digress.)
So amounts that want to be made and timescales in which to achieve it, will vary from individual to individual but I think its imperative to have figured what you are trying to achieve and by when, otherwise how do you know when to sell?

The reason people end up making big paper profits and then for whatever reason see the stock fall and their profits with them, is often Greed.

"If its doubled in a week I bet it will double again next week." and when it doesn't and it falls, that's ok it will go up next week and look, I am still in profit"

If you have a plan then stick to it.( Sure you can be flexible, but don't base that flexible approach on greed because sooner or later not only do your profits somehow disappear but so does you capital.)

If any stock has achieved your goal then there is nothing wrong (and everything right!) with selling and banking the money.

Personally I don't understand how anyone can "bet" £1000's on buying a stock and have no real idea what they expect from it or by when.
At some stage (and normally its when you are older...) but you realise the only really valuable, in fact priceless commodity, is TIME
Just my 2 cents and hope all are enjoying the weekend. GLA

I was asked on another board what I thought out Angle now from a TA perspective right at this moment:

So very briefly:
Its had a retrace this week and although bounced up higher today it still has headroom to go further albeit now in the mid 70's of the RSI (80 being a typical area when a retrace/fall is more likely).

So given the upward trend is very strong currently it looks most likely to push on, at least a bit from here, but if it falls the last high around 114p would seem an obvious place for it to test.

Good weekend everyone ;0)

"PS: Interesting today, any overbought chart indicators meant diddly squat. ;0)"

Thats all right ST, I feel exactly the same about fundamental analysis! ;0)

D: I'll post over the weekend on AGL once I see where it closes tonight.

ST, obviously read this when you have time, but using AVCT as an example, the last RNS showing the CV, which was the long awaited "golden ticket" did not blow the SP out of the water as it was already priced in.

(I do take the point that RNS's have the potential to re-calibrate chart interpretations,(Ha ha, that one way of putting it, don't you think?) but no system is full proof obviously including FA, and also charts/TA are not predicting the future, none of us can do that, but simply predicting whats most likely to happen. Its just an odds game. :0)

CI, right now the chart is not helping i'm afraid. There was a decent support level at 4.9p and now we are at 4.8p

However that's pretty close so it might not be too significant, the only caveat to that is that the stock is currently in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, and therefore the break down below 4,9p ain't great …..
It gets a bit choppy now to maybe another support at 4.55p

As a neutral I would not buy at this price but ideally would want to see either strong reversal indicators around 4.5p ( and even then I would be wary as its harder to pick a reversal) or, a break and hold above 5.35p.

You pay's yer money.... and all that....

ST, this is where you and I see it fundamentally, quite differently:

The SP does not represent the value of the company, it is simply a snapshot of all differing shades of opinion expressed through supply & demand of the shares sold & bought on the projected value if certain things come to pass over varying timescales.

In my world view, the SP reflects all the news that is out there. All the fundamentals, the update next week, the risks, the potential rewards, all of it.

The SP, imo is always AHEAD of the fundamentals, not lagging.

People buy & sell stocks based on the likely future events that may or equally may not come to pass. The news just confirms or confounds those expectations.

That's why shares get over bought and over sold.

The SP & the company in question, are only distantly related. Its people who buy & sell shares and through the predictability of crowds, so TA can offer an insight into the likeliest next move.

I'm interested when you say "We may see a little drop around where we are.....". Why here, at this price, why not earlier when it was 17p? Or later when its 20p?

What methodology suggests to you when some "consolidation "is likely? (Genuine question, not trying to be confrontational, Always difficult to get the "tone" across in a post)

well, looking pretty positive now due to today's sharp move. The close today should confirm the reversal of the recent down trend.
GLA

I think you are right Shares but for practical reasons on this SP, given I am using the daily close, time interval, its not going to be applicable here (for my explanations)

GG, Just a quick bit of background in case you are not aware how this "works" (and if you do know, then forgive me for teaching you to suck eggs!)

Charts on their own have limited accuracy on the likely next move and as a result various algorithms of the SP are used to produce "indicators" to overlay these chart patterns to increase the accuracy of the likeliest next move in the actual SP. One such is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and has a value between 0-100. It is generally accepted anything over 80 on the RSI suggests the SP is over bought (and therefore will fall as it perceived to be overvalued or has just got a bit ahead of itself) and anything below 20p suggests it is oversold, and therefore good value if looking to buy.)

As a SP rises so does the RSI (and vice versa).

So, yesterday the SP closed at 19.3 and RSI was 79.84

To answer your question directly, the SP has to fall to reduce the RSI. Staying at the same level won't help it unwind.

As an example of how this "works" on the 12/4 the SP was 14.3p and the RSI was way over bought at 88.61, since then there has been a bit of up and down but here we are at 19.3p and a lower RSI at 79.84. So a clear example of how the RSI via the SP had to unwind to allow further gains to take place.

So none of this is indicating any major fall or reversal or anything remotely dramatic, but the RSI is a very good indicator of what is likely to happen next, and that suggests a retrace to let the RSI unwind so as to allow further gains to be made.

When the trend is as strong as this I am not remotely looking for it to fall to 20 on the RSI, but simply for it come off the top and at the same time maybe detect a chart pattern that might indicate the retrace was/is over.

It could, as I said previously, carry on going up from here and the RSI just getting more and more into overbought territory, but at some stage it will have to fall back. And that's when I will look to top up.

But as always, each to his own.

The close yesterday of 19.3p put the stock right on the cusp of being "overbought" from a TA /Chart perspective. This suggests the next move is more likely down than up. As in all shares, its never all one way and this stock cannot defy gravity forever. Having said that it could still carry on rising and just become even more overbought, however it fell back from the intraday high of 20.5p yesterday and has slipped a little this morning.

Its too early to see how this is playing out just now as the potential correction from here has not developed enough yet.

I am looking to top up further but I will wait a little while yet I think. (just my 2 cents)

I know it might sound perverse but I would rather top up at 22p say, with chart indications that rises were more likely than not, than top up now at 19.2p but expect to see lower prices rather than higher from here... If that makes sense?

Phantom, without being rude, but so what if all the sells you saw at that particular price were one seller, how does that help?

Hi Guys, I understand charts and all the rest of it, are not every body's cup of Tea, but I (without any great insight) had been saying for days last week that it was over bought and needed to come down to allow further gains.

This was always likely and again, without going too over the top, charts (which are relatively short term), just a quick look at them saves a lot of the angst about MM's and who's a seller in the wings, or someones buying, speculation. The other helpful feature even for LTB&H , is to maybe help time entry, either first time around or subsequent top ups. (just my 2 cents)