Member Info for wyndrum

There was/is a support level at 97p. It very briefly dipped to 98p this morning and bounced upjust as quickly which augers well now for further moves upwards

D, yes very much. I really don't think fundamentals have that much to do with the SP as you know. For the LTH's, even when EVE is 50p it won't be based on its value on that day but some time in the future based on a whole load of positive projections coming to pass (which may or, may not, happen)

(That's why I think a "plan" is so important, otherwise you never sell, because next week, next month, next year, it will be better still.....And at some time you need to cash in! Well I do anyway ha ha)

Right now (and without overly labouring the point), the market can only go on what its been told. which is profit 18 months away (which is so far away as to be well, not really very positive), and cash pile will be tapped into in the meantime. Therefore "hold fire".

If news/rumour breaks that Eve is ahead of schedule then that means ,not only profits more likely but ACTUAL PROFIT coming soon) Then everything changes.

What I thought notable last year was the amount of TU's/news/RNS's that were released. Normally on a small cap like this its 2 updates a year and the other 11 months and 2 weeks is normally deadsville, incl. SP movement.

Which is partly why I can't be almost bothered to pull the trigger, its just likely to be so dull waiting. (You wait, tomorrow it will go ballistic!!!) But that's my problem, not EVE's

Mon, I think the "Simply Wall Street" link gave a very balanced view on EVE. Its still a risky company (how high that risk is, is for the individual to assess). It helps, obviously to have a good management team, but it still comes back to: is this a profitable business model?

I imagine the 10p remark is based on the company continuing to struggle to make meaningful profits in which case the cash pile (which apparently being tapped in to), reduces and the other value is the customer base EVE have.

currently the company is valued at £14m (less the £8m in the bank suggests that the rest of the company prospects and all, is valued at £6m). If ,Just for the sake of argument the cash balance falls to £4m you can see then that if the SP were to remain the same (5p) the rest of the company rises to a value of £10m.

if the SP were to be 10p then that , less this hypothetical £4m left in the bank, values the company at 24m (which is still losing money.)

What premium is a company going to put on EVE for its customer base/market share, given EVE after years and years, can't make money from it?

As long as EVE turns it around everything will be fine, but I think at best its a slow/long haul. Right now, for me, in any scenario 10p looks a fair way off, but its just my opinion, which is as fallible as everyone else's.

GL,
The SP does not represent the value of the company, it is simply a snapshot of all differing shades of opinion expressed through supply & demand of the shares sold & bought on the projected value if certain things come to pass over varying timescales.

On that basis and given you have already made the decision not to buy above 90p, I have to ask... What's your point?

Maybe Bojo, but I could have bought a couple of days ago for 116p and yesterday I bought for 109p (That's 6%) that's not nothing when the SP goes up 10 fold from here.....(or even two fold) in terms of realisable profit.

Maybe Bojo, but I could have bought a couple of days ago for 116p and yesterday I bought for 109p (That's 6%) that's not nothing when the SP goes up 10 fold from here.....(or even two fold) in terms of realisable profit.

It might seem a a bit perverse but I am delighted by todays pull back and added more at 109.25 GLA

well, if its good enough for you ,D...!

Hopefully its a calmer place than some other BB's :0))

Nope! (just rebalancing the PF)

Bought the dip today, the obvious support is 14.3 but as the RSI still leaves room for further gains I am not sure (or prepared to risk ) it will retrace that far. happy at 15.9 anyway. Can always add if it does fall back.

Personally I think that the fact it has been in overbought territory for a number of trading sessions now, is probably a drag on new buyers coming in.

my experience has always been "if not s going up, its going down" (and vice versa) and I think the move today if it holds, is necessary to future gains. Just need a bit of patience and for some with the funds, there might be an opportunity to top up at a lower price.

I have been disappointed with the time line of it but it still looks like plenty of growth to come, so I have rebalanced into almost equal thirds in to BMN and AGL over the last few weeks. (BMN is another long term play (18 months) and taken out my CGT allowance already for this year to bank some AVCT profir.

(Sorry to everyone about the OT nature but this its the only time I can speak to D! (thanks for not getting antsi about it GLA)

That's my intention D. there is nothing left to say or do now but wait (imo). Are you still in HE1?

wow! they don't give a monkey about charts then! ha ah

Just a quick thank you to all, for you indulgence about my questions that I know have vexed many, but also and more importantly, for the clarity and reasoning of the many replies.

I wish you all the very best, cheers

(Lets hope Aacta really does blow the bloody doors off!)

"Do you think China had 4636 deaths in total?" I don't doggy, you might ask PL745 is views on it though?

Apologies to all about citing India as a comparison. I was just going by the figures stated in the news report. It was not my intention to offend.

Gm, As distressing as the report is, it needs perspective:

"On Sunday, India reported 2,767 COVID deaths in the last 24 hours - its highest number so far. Total fatalities have now reached 192,311."

India has a population roughly 20 times the UK. Divide both of those two numbers by 20 to get a comparison to where the UK is and has been. Let me help, The daily death figure would be the equivalent of about 140 and the total deaths would be less than 10,000. (The UK has had 12 times that figure recorded.)

I am not attempting to diminish the suffering of this but a sense of proportion has to be taken into account, that's all.

The UK by comparison has been affected proportionally much more dramatically.

Larsh, if India is forced to go into lockdown (like the UK did) then, following the UK model, infections will fall (BJ putting more weight onto lockdown than vaccinations as the cause of the falling transmission rate in the UK). Again I am not sure of the country's (india)capacity to pay for testing that will necessarily follow the likely lockdown.

(Remember the whole point of lockdown is an enforced isolation the same as testing (if one is positive) breaks transmission. In such a low wage country a £10 test is hugely more expensive than here).

And of the 2nd point that I touched on, its is not so much having covid, but how ill you become. So, we have annual booster Jabs... so what has that got to do with mass testing?

Its easier and cheaper to take 1 or 2 jabs a year of the latest vaccine than it is to test once or twice a week.

We can't be testing once a week for the rest of out lives. as you say, it has to end sometime. This actual pandemic has not been as deadly as the reaction to it suggests. Never forget the average of Covid deaths is 82, pretty much the same as the average lifespan prior to Covid. (in the UK).

If vaccines fail then its a different story but the results so far are that it actually does aid in reducing transmission and is more effective at reducing illness if contracted than typical vaccines.

So I don't think its anything to do with turning a blind eye, but simply making very difficult judgements as to what society will allow as a acceptable death rate from covid going forward.

I still am of the very firm belief, this was not about saving lives per se, but simply govt's of individual countries health systems not being seen to be overwhelmed. Once that is "under control" they won't care so much about "covid" in the terms we discuss relentlessly here.

One of the bits I am confused about is the £8b tender: The govt has said it won't be giving free tests away after June.

So where does this almighty sum of £8b come from to be needed?

From June 21st the UK is going to relax all restrictions, no face masks, no social distancing. So, given that, why would we have mass testing in the UK? If we get rid of social distancing then I can't quite see the logic for using testing on mass gatherings either. (its either ok to be standing next to somebody or it isn't.)

(Always remember, its not about whether you have covid or not, but simply how ill does it make you.)

So our test has to be global. The US is going to be about as quick as us in vaccination, that leaves the EU.

As for the RoW, I have tried to make this point before but someone here posted recently "there are 7b people in the world and they all need testing", (which at the time I thought that's as nonsensical a thought as any of the best of mine), but poor countries who can't afford a one off vaccine are definitely not going to pay for tests.

What I did realise when it was obvious, when the end of Q1 was mooted as a launch date back in Jan, that this was dragging on far longer than any of us expected,that this is now all about being prepared for the next one. This pandemic is largely done.

(If you want to cite India it has a population of 1.36b roughly 20 time the UK. if the cases rise to 500,000 a day there, it needs to be put into comparison with the UK that peaked at 60,000/day in Jan. If India was the same as the UK they would need 1.2m cases per day.)

I don't think we have missed the boat but it is considerably smaller than it was 6 months ago. Our test needs to be taken globally and very quickly to benefit in the amounts we all priced in to the SP those months ago.

That's maybe a reason as to why the SP has not gone ballistic after all the good news this week.

Right now my expectation is that if it generates enough income for AVCT not to have any more external funding then that will be (quite) something. (I also think setting my expectation realistically low, might save further angst going forward).