Member Info for wyndrum

PAH, its 20%. not 20p

We have not got any figures to work from on the profit margin so my guess is as accurate as one else's right now.

And I think based on everything that has occurred thus far that we should err on the side of caution in our expectations.

The share is not completely de-risked until a substantial order(s) is/are produced.

The UK at present, is on top of the Pandemic and it will be instructive as to how many tests will be needed going forward if the current trend down in positive cases continues. (I think that's where the 5m/month comes from and extra capacity will only be needed if the 3rd wave arrives )

If the UK ordered 5m test per month at a profit of £1m that would be £12m per annum and further funding could be necessary in around 12-18 months.

Breakeven on current cash burn looks to be about 10m test per month. I know we can play with figures and margins but I think a more conservative approach should be assumed until we actually have figures that can allow more accurate calculations to take place.

Hopefully there will be global demand for this test that will propel this stock quickly upwards, but I feel a bit like the market now: Show me the money, please.

Beckster, I'm pretty sure if we were lucky, and a lobbed pair of knickers got plastered on BJ's face that would do it....

I mean I don't know I'm just guessing, but that could go viral....

I know this was a light hearted comment but I think I'm on to something here...….

Right ladies, the nation awaits. Take one for the team and do your duty......

Rebecca, its funny you should say that because I was not sure whether all our under garments should be lobbed at him but I was thinking for the best way of getting his attention was most likely from the female rather than the male of the species.

(Plus I have some mental images of some posters here and I really couldn't bring myself to dwell on quite what they might wear down there....)

Better Still, why don't all the women on this BB and the wives/girlfriends of the men, find out where BJ is next opening a supermarket or factory or what ever it is he does, and then throw their knickers at him with AVACTA LFT written on them?

That, I am pretty sure, would make it to the main stream news!

You don't need any of that Green, its not an Iron Man course.....and its not that every one is conspiring against one type of share holder, simply no such beast exists.

I'm not sure its bizarre Bline, but I do feel as though we might have a floor.

Given the concept that the SP is always correct (as it is the sum of all knowledge of the stock out there) then this is where we are: we have:
In depth final results update
CV validation
Nailed on CE by Early May
Initial 5m test per month (starting in May or early June?)

Current price 248p

Therefore I think any news after CE (as its already in the SP) and any order for greater than 5m per month will push the SP up.

I reckon a "new" news flow could happen any time almost from now but more likely in the next 2-3 weeks

it seems a long time ago now, but what if the CV results had not been published by now!!!

I agree Infins the lack of available validated test results may be the reason why other (global) manufacturers aren't on board yet but are waiting in the wings.

My most hopeful guess is that the preliminary discussions will quickly fall into place and firm up now the validation is complete and be a rubber stamp when we get the go ahead in early May to be able to take orders.

On that scenario, orders could come in with greater supply available, very quickly.

It almost beggar's belief how slow this govt has been to react to a better test that's been right under its nose (see what I did there) for so long and had not had the competence to not even fast track it, but simply keep up to date with it.

(I wonder if it would have been different if Cummings was still in no 10? well, we will never know)

Anyway, "tomorrow" is fast approaching. GL

That's it in a nutshell Eric, you (I don't mean this as personally as it sounds), assume he is being Coy, what if he is pretending to act like he is being coy to hint at much bigger potential then he can realistically see right now.?

I am not for one moment suggesting you are wrong but simply giving an alternative view. The mkt (and I love it for it), is just about the money, so he can be as "coy" as he likes but until they see the Wonga they dismiss it.

And unfortunately all the past "delays" are naturally going to make the mkt a little more sceptical than perhaps they might have been about the "future".

Somebody posted that he could sell snow to the eskimo's. One of the easiest ways to get someone to buy something is just (true or not), tell them what they want to hear.

We all here, want to read in every nuance to show even greater potential than we even imagined yesterday! We are super biased and we must not forget it.

Eric, I think the "problem" here from the markets perspective is that's its always next week, next month next year before revenue comes in.

The company is already very highly valued based on the future expectations so the market I think wanted something a bit more concrete. The most solid prediction was for 5m test per month, which is just over 1m per week which is pretty lame, (compared to expectation).

To be told it will go to maybe 30m is great but when? To say AVCT are looking for overseas manufactures is, "so what, you have been saying that for 6 months. where are the partners to generate these huge global sales?"

So currently the SP closed higher yesterday than it is now after the 2 presentations. The day is not done yet and the initial mkt disappointment might well be replaced by realising the opportunity to get in sub 300p, however we will see.

The stress on "Early May" is hopefully (although I feel a mug saying this), a firm date which I would say, should be by the 10th May.

So what i take out just now from this is, the presentations of themselves were great for the future , but not what the market wanted to hear for today.

Hi Ben:
2 things in my very personal experience:
I am ****e at predicting where SP's might go when they go into all time high territory. (I have tried for years and never got it close enough, often enough , to be reliable, but I am sure that's just me.)

The other one is triangle break outs. Again its a very common chart pattern to work from, but again I found it not to be reliable enough.

Now, the caveat to it all, is that chart patterns on their own are hit and miss and they need the support of other indicators to increase the odds of reading them correctly, whether they are genuine or false break outs. Again I struggled to find the right combination.

This was when I use to day trade, so time frames were much smaller and that may be relevant.

Now I have a super slimmed down, very simply methodology now that (perversely?) works very well.

All the books tell you to find "your own" system and that seems daunting bordering on impossible when you are starting out, but if you can hang in there, you will, I'm sure, find what (reliably) works for you.

Sorry I can't be of more help on this one.

(I would be interested to hear your thoughts on the book when it arrives!)

Sorry I was not clear when I said "( although might just mark it down a penny or two)"

What I meant to say is, I think 275p is the key price point, but its pretty nit-picking!

Morning Ben, I think so too, ( although might just mark it down a penny or two)

It felt, just reading this mornings report that today is likely to be a day of new ATH's. (I bought some more by releasing funds from another stock that reported today, at 258p, so, so far so good0

Could be a long day though because we have been in the mid 280's intra day, so we will have to wait until close of play.

But if I take my unemotional, just-look at-the-charts hat off, its bloody exciting!!!!

Morning Res

I would respectfully disagree. Al stocks ultimately are news driven. it is exactly the breaking of news that gives stocks so much volatility leading to over sold and over bought reactions that the RSI flags up. But as always each to his own.

I just use the charts Jon, that HL provide as I use them for my buying and selling

Hi SLF72,
support and resistance levels are based on the SP action. A support level is a target that if a SP is falling, it may fall to that level and rise from it and therefore it supported the SP. Resistance is the recent "top" of a stocks SP and often when it gets to that level falls back down as it acts as a "resistance" to further gains.

However just because a SP falls to a support level, ie 96-98p on AGK, it does not mean it will simply bounce back up. It could just carry on falling to the next support level!

Indicators running alongside a chart pattern are there to give the viewer extra confirmation of what is most likely to happen next. Some chartists will run 2 or 3 or 4 indicators alongside the chart pattern and if they all say the same thing then as you can imagine it makes the likely event, that more predictable.

The RSI is an algorthym of the SP action and has values between 1-1 00. Generally if it has value of 80 or above it is "over bought" (ie people have piled in and the SP has got ahead of itself, other people recognise this, believe the stock now to be over valued and sell). like wise if people panic sell and the RSI falls to 20 or below then others will think the sell off is over done and see value and buy in.

So using AGL as an example I use the RSI as an indicator to show when the stock has probably got a bit ahead of itself and is therefore likely to fall. The RSI is currently at 80.33. and the last 2 days it has closed at about the same price as 110p.

It looks to be running out of steam and with this RSI just in the over bought area it looks, more likely than not to fall back a bit.

But heres the thing. It might have great day tomorrow and hold on to those gains that it tried to today and yesterday and close at 118p and be even more overbought!!
So I am waiting for the inevitable down day and not predicting when it will be or at what level but I will react when the patterns unfold and its clearer.

Patience is key, and so is decisiveness and it took me a while to realise they are not mutually exclusive concepts in trading!

Mr ST "..... LTH here have made up to 1000% since the 20p price just over a year ago"

The way you say it its as though that's a lot? ;0)

lets not go there again, however it could be a bit of FOMO taking place

Fair enough... although they could have gone lower. :0))
(I'm presuming you bought in the mid 20s? back then?)