Member Info for wyndrum

Morning Ben, I think so too, ( although might just mark it down a penny or two)

It felt, just reading this mornings report that today is likely to be a day of new ATH's. (I bought some more by releasing funds from another stock that reported today, at 258p, so, so far so good0

Could be a long day though because we have been in the mid 280's intra day, so we will have to wait until close of play.

But if I take my unemotional, just-look at-the-charts hat off, its bloody exciting!!!!

Morning Res

I would respectfully disagree. Al stocks ultimately are news driven. it is exactly the breaking of news that gives stocks so much volatility leading to over sold and over bought reactions that the RSI flags up. But as always each to his own.

I just use the charts Jon, that HL provide as I use them for my buying and selling

Hi SLF72,
support and resistance levels are based on the SP action. A support level is a target that if a SP is falling, it may fall to that level and rise from it and therefore it supported the SP. Resistance is the recent "top" of a stocks SP and often when it gets to that level falls back down as it acts as a "resistance" to further gains.

However just because a SP falls to a support level, ie 96-98p on AGK, it does not mean it will simply bounce back up. It could just carry on falling to the next support level!

Indicators running alongside a chart pattern are there to give the viewer extra confirmation of what is most likely to happen next. Some chartists will run 2 or 3 or 4 indicators alongside the chart pattern and if they all say the same thing then as you can imagine it makes the likely event, that more predictable.

The RSI is an algorthym of the SP action and has values between 1-1 00. Generally if it has value of 80 or above it is "over bought" (ie people have piled in and the SP has got ahead of itself, other people recognise this, believe the stock now to be over valued and sell). like wise if people panic sell and the RSI falls to 20 or below then others will think the sell off is over done and see value and buy in.

So using AGL as an example I use the RSI as an indicator to show when the stock has probably got a bit ahead of itself and is therefore likely to fall. The RSI is currently at 80.33. and the last 2 days it has closed at about the same price as 110p.

It looks to be running out of steam and with this RSI just in the over bought area it looks, more likely than not to fall back a bit.

But heres the thing. It might have great day tomorrow and hold on to those gains that it tried to today and yesterday and close at 118p and be even more overbought!!
So I am waiting for the inevitable down day and not predicting when it will be or at what level but I will react when the patterns unfold and its clearer.

Patience is key, and so is decisiveness and it took me a while to realise they are not mutually exclusive concepts in trading!

Mr ST "..... LTH here have made up to 1000% since the 20p price just over a year ago"

The way you say it its as though that's a lot? ;0)

lets not go there again, however it could be a bit of FOMO taking place

Fair enough... although they could have gone lower. :0))
(I'm presuming you bought in the mid 20s? back then?)

MR ST, I didn't say I was selling I was just asking how you knew this fall was MM manipulation.
Also mikey said there was a massive seller off loading. are you both right?

The video is about 15 years old and we have a lot more tighter regs now to try and stop a lot of those practises, but I am not an innocent that does not believe skull duggary goes on but at the same time I don't believe it is as widespread and as common as many assume.

Right now this is and has been, in a trading range and most professional traders (if they bothered with this stock, which actually I doubt) are waiting for a decisive move before buying or off loading, (233p-275p)
Cheers

I no longer have the facility to short stocks so I am only looking to time entries on what I think will be rising stocks.

So I haven't traded this stock, only added, (although I missed a sitter yesterday when I could have sold at 118p. The logic was, although it could have gone higher, that it was not likely to close at 118p as that would then have put it around 90 on the RSI for opening today, which means it would almost definitely have fallen today. So I could have (theoretically) bought in at any point lower than 118p and just got more shares for a straight buy back. Trouble is I am so relaxed about buying and only adding to a position these days, I did not see what was staring me in the face! (A bit of a Simpsons Doh moment.!)

So, I have developed a bit of a hybrid system and it seems to work for me so who knows! maybe after all this time I have cracked it! (Famous last words....)

And last, thing the only point perhaps I might highlight, is that recently there were a number of posts from LTH saying they had been in the stock for 10 years. I thought blimey, you really should have had your money working a bit harder! And that's what charts can help with.

If I have learnt nothing else, Timing is everything, absolutely everything.

MR ST, how do you know, every time the SP goes down, its the MM's tree shaking? And if not every time, why this time then, in particular?
Just asking

Div, the only follow up I would make based on your comment:
" For me and I think you noted with your longer term view on the stock, that perhaps this is not for trading given the upcoming newsflow."
Is that, actually, yes it is.
This is one of the reasons I love charting as a method.
You are making the assumption that the news flow will all be positive aren't you, based on your company analysis?

Using TA, looking at the chart I don't know any of this potential positive news flow. so how would I trade it?
Well, the "trend is your friend" and clearly the trend is up so I would not look to be shorting the stock (unless I saw very clear signs of a reversal), so now all I would be looking to do is to time my entry. Currently 97p is a support and it might come back to test that level, (if it did I would top up there). However as the rise is still ongoing as I said in a previous post, new support levels above 97p might form. Who knows.

What I don't want to do , (as a chartist), is get sucked into buying now at 116p with an RSI above 80 for FOMO, and then 2 days later the SP falls to 97p! I may well get money back as the SP recovers from 97p and in my invented example goes to 130p, but in terms of overall profit, its crucial.

But, and here is the kicker.... What would happen to the SP if FDA was not granted? Sometimes (actually most times), not knowing the fundamentals is very helpful as it stops preconceived ideas potentially blinding the individual to the risks that are always there on any stock.

Patience and no emotion so you can stick to your plan is key, and if you can nail that, then its not as hard or as slightly weird as it (TA) may come across as. ;0))

Hi Div, actually yes it is. I have used a lot of indicators of the years and I have found only the RSI to be reliable enough to be of use. (But this is very personal and different chartists will have their favourite indicators and methods)

I don't know how much you use or know about TA so forgive me at the outset if I am teaching you to suck eggs!

TA is not infallible (no system is), and it does not predict the future.

TA is simply forecasting the most likely future event so effectively is just an odds game.

Charts are just graphical representations of the peoples buying and selling actions. As its people that buy & sell shares and given that people in crowds are reasonably predictable, it follows that the patterns these graphical representations (charts) make, will likely be repeated more often then not. That's TA in a nut shell.

The big thing, I think, that Fundamental analysists either overlook or don't accept, is that the SP is never in sync with the company it represents. As a result FA is irrelevant (that's not meant to be provocative btw!)

All the known (FA) info is already in the current SP. So, for example future FDA approval (which is not a given but likely) is already reflected in the current SP, so I don't need to know that bit of FA

You have highlighted an example where using my method I would have missed out on a gain. Which (although I might argue the toss on exactly how much and when), is a fair point. But that's OK, TA is not full proof, but if (for the sake of argument) my method stops me buying at the top of a SP just before it falls back say 5-10%, 95% of the time, then I am happy to miss out on the very rare occasion on the example you highlight.

Most TA books will tell the reader to find and develop "their system" which is very daunting when you start out, but its true I think and using myself as an example, for the amount of time I hold a stock, I have developed a profitable methodology that works for me more often than not leading to good short term profits.

There are reasons why "traders" don't profit as much as they should is because their mentality is wrong. TA does not suit a gambling personality, but it attracts mostly exactly that type, and it leads inevitably to over trading.

I have made over the years, every text book mistake in trading and learnt very much the hard way and although its taken me probably longer than most to figure it out, I seem to have stumbled on a way that suits me (and at last my bank balance!) pretty well.

Hi CI, yes, charting can easily send "mixed" signals depending on what time frame is being used.

I like to use the daily close charts, so monthly/3 monthly/yearly on HL. If you look at the weekly chart that gives daily 15 minute intervals then its a different picture.

So you would use the time interval that suits your trading time frame best (when I day traded I used 1 min/5 min and 15 min intra day intervals.)

As I am taking a much longer view on this stock I am using the daily close chart with the RSI.

So, yes the intraday 15 min chart shows plenty of space for upward movement with the RSI.

However the daily chart is in over bought territory so I will wait for the inevitable down day(s) to take place. As yet it has not occurred so the pattern is still unfolding. As it does it will probably produce new support and resistance lines which will all go into the mix.

My philosophy is to try and get in at the lowest point at that time. So I would be happy eventually, for the sake of argument topping up at 122p if the indicators said that to me. I get personal satisfaction if it then just goes up from my entry point!! (sometimes that happens!)

In any event, every trade I do I view as a separate entity on its own merits. The actual price is irrelevant, its the profit % (or loss) is my criteria for judging success or failure.

Cheers

I don't know but I thought I would just try and lighten the mood.

(We all have a filter button, its the easiest way and I should I know, most of you have used it on me ! ;0))

Well, don't invest then Toadey.

If you have done your research and there are better producers of Vanadium as well as the other strings to BMN's bow then by all means put your money there. (Let me know who it is if you would, as I will join you)

All the reasons you suggest at the end of your post may also be the markets reaction and is therefore reflected in the SP. In which case it is probably near the bottom (personally according to a bit of TA it has got a floor at around 14.5p,) so you could hang on and maybe get a few % shaved off your entry price should you take the plunge or the strike might get called off tomorrow and it jumps 5-10%.

Tricky game really ......

Tom, if you can comfortably afford to lose it all, then its not a problem.

"I'm guessing the "market" is awaiting news of first orders. The May CE Mark adds even more time but to be fair Prof Waffle did say mid summer."

He wasn't the only one
"

No, sellers push the price up, buyers push the price down

buyers push the price down

AVCT is still within a relatively broad trading range at present (234p-275p) but there is a mild support at 257p and we are pretty solidly just above that. The following upward resistance points are fairly closely spaced. Next: A break above 265p and then the big one, 275p. Those imo, are the prices to look out for.