Member Info for wyndrum

one rip shredding coming up!!!

Not at all, I'm just messing about!!

But I would perhaps offer this as advice when using charts fwiw:

Try not to guess what's coming next.
You said "I do think though this may well be their final drop leading into their next TU"
It may or it may not. Keep your mind open. The natural bias is to "see" what you want to see when you have skin in the game.

Right now EVE is in downward trend with a close of 4.3p today, with no sign of a reversal (yet)
More likely than not 4.20p is going to be revisited. if that goes then 4.0p but we will see.

Presently it looks like a close above 4.70 would suggest the current fall is over, but that may change and evolve with further price action.

You need to be patient but when you think the odds are in your favour in terms of a SP that you think is significant and therefore a good entry point, you must be decisive and pull the trigger.

Being patient and decisive is a trickier feat to pull off than it sounds (well it was for me! ha ha.)

Anyway good luck.

As I said earlier the chart was looking vulnerable if it closed below 266p, the next support seems to be around 241/242p, so I would imaging there is a better than even chance with no news, that that level will be tested.

The larger trading range is still 233p-275p

Did I Phantom? what did I say? (genuinely I don't remember) I don't normally disparage others investments strategies. (I do think LTBH is an extremely risky one but as I say I don't normally personalise it)

Was it the length of time you had held that I was highlighting against the increase in the price in that time?

Phantom, Firstly I was not aware of AGL last year.

Secondly when I called it over bought at 110p it was at a recent all time high so I had no indication of where it was going chartwise (except probably down), as it was, it inched up to 114p over a couple of further days before falling to 107p and then pretty much took off to 116p (It was not my intention to top up at that time anyway, my funds being allocated elsewhere.)

This fall today was quicker and more pronounced than I expected so I decided to reallocate funds on the fly to take advantage as 134p is now the target figure for further gains.

I don't normally comment on my personal trading decisions, because it really does not matter to anyone and in truth it can't be proved and it can cause more fuss than its worth on a BB.

I only mentioned it today because of the difficulty in getting the deal done (HL) it was suggesting I could buy at 123p before eventually letting me in 10 mins later at 125p. It was that experience that suggested to me the fall might be over and therefore worth mentioning.

I managed to top up just now at 125p after 10 minutes of trying so hopefully the fall is over

BIL, so history never repeats itself?
How do you come to judgements of the future if not referring to past experience?

Ok BIL, we see it differently. I see the "market" as made up of people who buy and sell and that price moves are made up of supply & demand. Not a random glob of MM's constantly manipulating the price.

Yes, I am saying the SP has poorly performed in the last 12 months, given the market that AVCT inhabit and its proposed product range, and its not irrelevant because if we can understand better why that is, it might lead to more accurate expectation going forward.

For instance my "journey" over the last nearly 12 months is one of expectation of immediate results to a realisation that AS is to be ignored on any timeline he gives, to then realise that AVCT is a much longer play now that I originally expected (and I am referring to now, all the cancer treatments). It will be 2-5 years I think. if its sooner great, but so far AVCT is in fact it would seem, typical of a bio pharma.- high risk, and nothing happens as quickly as one would hope.

And that's ok and as you can say I can either wait or sell, but we can still discuss it to pass the time can't we?

BIL I understand your point, but its also worth remembering that we are not talking about a few days of a deadline but many weeks, and this has an effect on sentiment. If we don't "regurgitate" it, we might miss the bigger picture and then not understand what is taking place.

So I am not sure it is that off topic and I would point out the SP is everything. That's what determines how much we make or lose on any purchase. This is not about Avacta, this is about how the market perceives Avacta, its an important distinction.

The market does not " .. dictates what it likes", that's absurd, otherwise no one would ever buy on that random pov.

Trying to fathom whats happening and the market's reaction to it, is surely worthwhile?

This is a BB to share thoughts and ideas and not simply to ignore what could be anything that you class (I don't by the way) as Gloom and Doom.

if you just want to talk about how great it could be then ok but that's just as boring when the current situation does not reflect that.

12 months ago the SP was over 200p it up 30% since then... its not been as great as anyone expected has it? Or should we not discuss that? or if its always going to be "it is what it is" then why discuss anything at all?

Nightmare, for goodness sake grow up. Looking at AGL first, I highlighted that at the current price of 135p it looked to be an expensive price to buy or top up at as the TA indicators suggested a retrace or fall was coming. It has now fallen to 130p. All I have done is potentially saved investors some money. Good grief, are you so ignorant to think shares increase in price every day?
AVCT is falling because every further day of no news means some shareholders are drifting off to what they think will be greener pastures.

Never mind the term" in the coming days", this was expected by the end of March, we are nearly 8 weeks late and counting.

What do you think the lost revenue is in losing 8 weeks of testing?
Up to now sentiment has held up very well but the strain now is becoming more apparent, well it is to me, anyway.

Robbo, just watch the SP, that will tell you everything you need to know.

Maybe we are at cross purposes BIL, I am simply suggesting that the lack of urgency to certify is because of the current stockpile of the innova test and the govt does not want to allow a better test to be available while it has this stockpile, otherwise they are in a position where they could be giving out a better test but don't "just to save money". I don't think that would play well, and nor would binning half a billion quids worth of Innova test either.

Bu my rough and ready calculation I think the govt bought around 100m tests in march. at 10m tests a week thats 10 weeks supply and takes us through to June when the govt had said they will no longer give the test's away for free.

But is that still the case, or will the govt be handing free LFT's after June?

The chart is starting to look at little vulnerable as well. 265p is a recent support and currently we are trading just below that. Its important I think that we close above 265p or its likely further falls will come in as patience starts to wane further.

BIL, Its not about the public knowing but if the govt have £500m of Innova stock still waiting to be distributed then its pretty clear when the public accounts committee look into this they, the govt, will be crucified. The whole debacle of wasted PPE spending is the tip of the waste of govt money on this pandemic and while they might have the loosest of arguments that it was panic buying then, it won't wash now, this late into the pandemic cycle.

Clearly this could have been CE'd if necessary in 24 hours. There is no demand or urgency from the govt to get another test out yet.

I may have mentioned that Idea yesterday.....

BB, Last top up chance? What, won't I be able to buy tomorrow or next week? Or will anything over 23p be wildly expensive and a mistake?

so we are all agreed then (apart from me), that we will never see the SP below 135p (Currently what it is now to buy. short of a "bad news" RNS?).

like I said (and I really did not think it was remotely contentious,) that although the SP could carry on moving up it is now more likely to close lower than its current 135p SP.

I have not suggested anyone sell? I am just saying that if you wanted to top up or buy now, the chart says wait as you will most likely get a better entry point.
No hair splitting just sayin...

BoJo, it will take a breather, they always do.

Hardly surprising after the few days of continual gains that the SP is now just about in the "over bought" range.
It can just carry on and go up further, but more likely is that it will (and even if it does move up , it will be by a much more modest amount) have a down day any day now.

Last time it went into over bought territory at 110p it finally topped out at 114p (in April), before falling to to 107p

This is where you have to be quite emotionally detached from a stock because there is a potential dilemma:

If you want to top up now, then the chart says "wait" as its most likely going to fall back from around these levels. But what if it doesn't and it has a final spurt and goes to 147p before falling back to 138p say, higher than it is now?

What to do?

Ultimately, if you have experience that the RSI is more reliable than not, then you wait and if it doesn't work out you have to shrug your shoulders and pay the higher price, knowing that in the majority of times you will get a cheaper entry price.

Nothing is guaranteed, all TA ever tries to do is push the odds a bit more in your favour. GLA

You are most probably right Ben, but with my conspiracy hat on, say AVCT got CE approval now and the govt wanted to wait say, 4 weeks to get Innova stocks out.

Whats to stop AVCT selling all the production elsewhere (anywhere but the UK) and then the govt is in the queue for the now, sold-out, test? (A bit like the vaccine EU debacle?) with it not being available until sept say?

But as I say, I am sure your explanation is right. (It makes mores sense!)

You see D, you have turned me around a bit on the TP review thing. before I dismissed it and now I think it is a relevant indicator, certainly worth adding some weight to in the decision making process. So I thank you very much for that.