Member Info for wyndrum

ROCE is indeed a good indicator, however there is a big distinction between the company and its SP. It can for instance fritter away its cash and not transfer that cash generation back to the Share holders having a poor effect on the SP. I am not accusing Boohoo of this but when will the SP catch up to the how good the company is? And if it hasn't yet why should it in the future? What assumptions will all you make to justify this re-rate?

What does BH have to do more that it has already demonstrated thus far to be rerated? If it has to do more, then is that reasonable? Can this giant value making machine accelerate away from where it is now?

All I have heard from experts in this country is that it is too early to say that the Indian variant is more deadly or evaded the current vaccines. What I have heard is that on the data so far, it isn't different enough to be significant. (Again listen to Jenny Harris who deals with efficacy of the vaccines (Pfizer and AZ) on it, broadly she does not see the vaccines failing and its more of the way stats have been collated at this early stage).

Remember on june 21st ALL restrictions are to be disbanded, no masks, no social distancing, mass gatherings allowed.
(I heard that maybe masks might be worn on public transport but this is the oddest bit as there is precious little data that masks help and if they do it is a very marginal level.)

Now assuming (because that is the current info we have), that we go back to normal in the uk on June the 21st, where is the "need" for mass testing?

Why would you have Mass testing when there are no restrictions on human interaction?

I am not saying that it won't be around in the Uk, but we have lots of mild (and not so mild) illness and virus's that circulate through UK at any given time and we don't mass test for any of them.

My "dog with a bone" attitude on this is that for all the posts that says testing is vital, necessary and will be ongoing for a long time, then how, how do you explain the slowness of getting the sovereign test out?

We have been joining the dots on this for nearly a year, where it has "had to be us" on so many occasions and still nothing after all this time.

I could not quite believe it this morning when I read that even the waste water detection isn't ours!

So, DVRG have had this for months and months via AVCT tech and when waster tests at last come out its still not us!!!
Something does not add up and I am just casting around for what it might be.

Whether mass testing is "Necessary" or not, I think it was clear back in November that the world will go on a vaccine solution as it is the cheapest and therefore most cost effective solution. Testing is vital to nip future infections in the bud, but that ship has sailed on this one, globally. (Maybe we did not shafted on the SP quite as much some here believe when that news broke?)

and finally, we say we will sell all we can make. What test are other countries using right now? Are they all using Innova? (I don't think so), the world is moving on and every day more, globally, get vaccinated and as countries like the UK and the US and even the EU, get vaccinated so it frees up production and resource for the rest.

And lastly please don't put your individual bias of what you think my personal stock holding is on this. Its nothing to do with it. Whether you believe it or not, I always post in good faith and ask (and answer) questions in good faith based on my views and others.

Tim, can we just not at least discuss a slightly alternative view? You tell me then why has AS missed every deadline? I am working on the assumption that he is not stupid. (maybe the first time he missed it was his fault back in summer 2020 but he would have been wary after that surely?) If I am right then these delays are more likely caused by the govt saying one thing to him and then doing the opposite, and that I can imagine.

I think we now probably have too much capacity for testing and the Treasury is desperately reining in expenditure where it no longer sees a need for in a way that it maybe did, 6 months ago just prior to Xmas.

Fun time, I don't see the flipside as you describe. There is no evidence that the figures are wrong. In fact if we cast our minds back to every new mutation, the press (as the press does) sensationalises every variant to "will this evade the Vaccine! Is it more deadly" and so far.... no, the vaccines work, and they are not more deadly, on a virus that was never that deadly to the majority of the population in the first place.

If we get to herd immunity, and we are pretty close now, then it will be irrelevant if you have had the vaccine or not, but even if you have not had the jab and you contract it, you are more or less as immune then going forward as much as who had the vac, only presumably it was more painful then it needed to have been, but the result is the same: You now have antibodies.

She has just said Herd immunity, which she thinks comes in at about 90% of the (UK) population stops the spread, " At that level the Virus has nowhere to go"

Currently she believes the UK is at about 71%

We had better go global because the UK is soon going to be a non starter for mass testing.

This now, to me, inexplicable delay should we want to get on top on THIS outbreak, , points to everything being ready for the "next one". I am now thinking the govt "Sovereign test", will be for the future, not for this epidemic. AVCT (or another) can react within a matter of a few weeks to produce a highly accurate test, it can be used at home, manufacturing can be example up immediately etc etc. Vacinnes can be tweaked/developed with an few months, if necessary.

I think the govt has gotten away with using the Innova test for this one, and muddled through to having the incredible good fortune of picking the right companies that produced an extremely robust vaccine in an almost unbelievably quick timescale.

The only avenue in the UK I believe is now available is for travel. I can see international travel being dependent on a test prior to going out and presumably on return, but won't from the govt., it will be individual airlines, or maybe the airports, just as we still take off shoes and belts off at security even though there is no need to do this anymore. It will ultimately be a security blanket.

If anybody cares but Novacyt SP was 15p in Jan last year before topping out at 1190p about 8months or so later. Had you bought £10,000 (66,666 shares ) and sold at 1100p you would have about £730k or roughly 70 times appreciation.
So an odd comparison for PP to make when comparing the performance of the 2 stocks.

Also they are not in debt.

Even comparing when both companies floated and their current SP today, still NCYT is a better performer.

So I am not sure why she picked on NCYT....

Just to finish this off SG,

The Closing price has been set at 20.80p, so currently it is in a trading range between 19.5p and 21.10p, Overlaying the
RSI, it shows 63.77 (anything over 80 suggest a fall/retrace is likely), so again plenty of room to go up further.

If it runs out of steam and closes below 19.5p then 18.20p would be a likely target, but.... 19.2/19.6/19.5 have all been recent closes so the amount of times it has hit in and around that figure, now that the SP is above it, suggests that that price (19.50p) is quite a strong support and therefore less likely to be breached, and if its not going down... then its going up!

So all of these factors suggest to me the next decisive move is up, rather than down.

SG, I keep it really simple for (small) stocks. All I am doing is looking at the highs and lows based on the daily closing price via the HL platform. I am using the daily close price because I expect to hold this stock for at least a number of weeks if not months, and therefore any shorter chart timescale is not appropriate to me.

I merge the RSI indicator with it to see if there is "room" for it to appreciate if it goes through a recent high (or decrease if its a low).

Most recently I added yesterday and today.

Still we shall see. TA is only trying to display the most likely outcome rather than anything more predictive then that.

A bit like holding 3 aces in a game of poker and the odds telling you that you will win more than you will lose with that hand.

I am not trading this yet as I am in stock adding mode and just looking to increase my holding whilst it is below these, as I see it, resistance levels, confident as I am in the strong upward trend that persists with this stock.

SG, a close above 21.1p would be indicative of further upward moves, a break and close above 23p would be more positive still , to bring in new buyers.

I think it sometimes gets overlooked, that for the SP to advance there have to be buyers, and small high risk companies like this attracts that type of risk-appreciating investor and once that investor has bought, then the market can be a little barren of new buyers until the company has de-risked further to attract a new type of buyer.

Which all seems very frustrating to many here who can only see the no-brainer, huge potential....

another look at 21.1p.... its quite exciting ..in a very, not-really-that-exciting sort of way.....

I imagine it has not happened because its not been advertised on their or anybody else's website, as available to order.

Not sure you can keep that off an RNS.... but hey who knows, and I am becoming past caring...

Is that when you normally get up SM? Otherwise why 7:00am?

If we don't get an intraday ine today I doubt Govt depts. work over the weekend, so either intraday Monday or just some time next week. (Its got to be next week otherwise I don't think the product will be on sale within May)

Its a slow day to day:

Forgive me Yanis if this does not apply to you at all but I have sees this type of post many, many times on all BB and forums
"...if it drifts lower I will be adding more." The implication being you have funds read and waiting to top up.

How much lower? (it was 4,3p when you posted this.) 4.2p. 4.1p, lower?
If it is 3.5p would you not think if it has fallen to 3.5p it might fall further still and decide to wait a bit more?

You may have a very clear plan, but I highlight this not because you personally posted it, but just as an example of a very well worn sentiment and it always comes across to me as the poster does not actually mean it, or if they do its so woolly as to be pointless and more likely a psychological crutch to reassure themselves that the falling SP is not a negative but actually an opportunity to buy more, but without actually buying any more.

You could have said, "I am buying at this level because its a steal", or "I am just waiting for 4.2p and then topping up."

Or if you are waiting for a bigger fall, explain why you expect it to go there and again express a positive view as to what you will do.

I am genuinely not having a go at you at all so agian please accept this as a broad post to all out there who have similar thoughts.

This type of post, more often than not, tends to be a bit of a need for reassurance of the initial position taken and a concern that it is presently not working out as expected and the F&G emotions are kicking in and playing with the mind.

(Of course I might be so off beam here and can therefore only apologise for using your post to make a very general point!)

ATB

I keep seeing this "30p drilling" figure?

What is this based on? is it just a figure randomly plucked out of the air that some want to see, or is there a rational valuation being applied?

Yannis No.

This is absolutely typical of a small, news-dry company. I would be surprised if there was a TU at the AGM.
People get bored when nothing happens and drift off to what they perceive to be greener pastures.

It was being shorted the SP would be collapsing, not just drifting in a trading range.

Maestro,

Both side of this argument have been posted numerous times over the last few weeks...….

looks like the 21.1p resistance is being looked at. Interesting to see if it breaks today.

GK, I think the market accepts AVCT have a test and that currently it looks to be commercially viable and that a relatively small amount of monthly test supports the SP. (5m per month?)

What I think the delay's effect will have on the SP is the ultimate bounce on the SP from the potential orders coming through.

Its difficult to discuss this bit, as much as I try, but how long do we think "mass testing" will go on for?
(I said last year it would be 12-18 months (just a speculation obviously), others through longer, but every month that passes closes the window on the longevity of the income form Mass testing.

So we are getting to about 9 months on that window (I think we expected a test realistically by august last year?).

AS said we were months away which sounds like July but then says we will be selling into Europe in May? So I am pretty confused as to what, when and how much.

Never mind the outrage this post may or may not engender, this is meant to be an investment and its getting ever more opaque to make a judgement on where the SP might rise to, given the never ending delays to market.

GB, the SP will tell us all how the presentation was received.

My experience is to pretty much discard what any CEO says: They are so biased and they HAVE to exaggerate all their company's achievements and expectations.

RNS's are the only ones you can half rely on, but interviews and presentations are always more upbeat than the reality. (imo)

Well, I hope he is wrong for his sake because if there is an RSN tomorrow, then that's insider trading...….

If not, then I don't quite know why so many indulge him as he is just a fantasist.