Member Info for wyndrum

I am going to stick my head over the parapet here....

This by and large seems a reasonable board where most views are entertained without too much rudeness and what there is, is pretty gentle and mostly tongue in cheek.

I don't know this Harpman character but he seems to have disturbed the equilibrium here.

Why can't posters just ignore a post they don't like? As soon as it gets a response it opens up a thread to develop which at the end of it, all parties I am sure would agree, was pretty pointless.

I imagine , all being well with the drilling, this board could see an influx of all sorts. If we can practise a bit of Zen calm now, and just let the irritating posts drift by without comment then life here I am sure will remain informative and enjoyable.

It doesn't mean different views can't be expressed and discussed but once you go after the poster instead, in my experience it degenerates pretty quickly.

Just a thought as its frankly, nice here, (imo.)

well, we will see infins, this govt is so cack handed and if half of what dom cums said was true about govt procedure (such as it is) then its no surprise its taking longer than we all expected.

I wonder if we will ever find out? I guess not if there was/is an NDA in place as no doubt the official secrets act would have been invoked.

Maybe it will be more apparent if orders are released quicker when we get the EU cert.?

Not that it matters but I would not be surprised for the presentation being about the AVA6000 first patient dosing starting up rather than the test per se as top bililng

wow! Brilliant! absolutely wrong on every count!

(You are ES, after all)

Except yes, of course its speculation. (i don't know If I can talk any slower...), I was asking you, why you thought it was "wild" speculation as it was you, (you) who said it was.

You have not actually responded to that why the Innova stockpile might not be the reason of the delay other than to say its " "speculation" but as this is a BB, where people swap ideas and thoughts and try to join the dots to get a head start, if they can, on the market, speculating is actually all anybody does here.

If we wait until its not "speculation" the SP will have already reacted and it becomes a bit pointless to post what has already taken place, don't you think?

Still at least you are not reading this and going off on yet more wild imaginings of what you think people are like behind the posts. Very funny though, and I am sure you will find someone else to get it completely wrong about.

Well I s'pose if you count 55,000 as nothing then you are spot on again, but really why won't you at least debate the points I raised (seeing as it was you, you Will, that wanted clarification from me), rather than pointlessly and aimlessly making up stuff on my stock holding.

It is you that avoids the discussion and you merely try to deflect to hide your lack of reasoning I think. But I am making that up because it's a wild speculative leap from what you have posted thus far for me to assume the above.

AIFP, short term volatility! are you kidding its yo-yo'ed between 275p and 90p for a year! Be fair, even as rollercoasters go, this has been a hum-dinger!! what time scale do you mean when you say short term?

Will, just answer the question: why is it wild speculation or in you prefer now, wild conjecture?

I have given you my reasons based on what we know thus far (the evidence you asked for) and just added the Innova stockpile to the list as to make sense of the bits before.

While you were gone I mentioned (back in mid march I think) when the latest and (last i hope), £b order was placed with Innova that that would probably keep our orders off the market until July as they would need to be used first. (oh, if only you had been around then!)

So before you ask me another question that queries my motives, how about just finishing this one off first?

Oh and my evidence:
(ooh its like being in court of law not just some BB), is AVCT has produced a test for sale, but it has no orders (which is odd because it has been publicised for a year that its coming so we can't say this is breaking or unexpected news for the market and prospective customer), AS has mentioned that we will be selling to the govt and has been in contact with the govt for at least a year and also at the same time the govt do have millions of Innova test that they have bought so the last bit is a leap, but my learned friend, I put it to you, that having spent over a £b on the last order it would reflect poorly on said govt if they were seen to be "wasting " tax payers money by binning them prematurely. After all if they did it might also open the can of worms of why the govt was so quick to dispose of a test they already spent £b 's on previously insisting everyone takes it twice a week for it accuracy and help in defeating the pandemic?

I leave it to the Jury to weigh up your reasons as to why the above is not so.

God No, I said I would because you promised to do the opposite and I was trying to help you. (for all the thanks I get)

Well, Fools, I mooted it a couple of weeks ago to try and explain the CE Mark delay then. Even in my "wildest" speculative moments did I conceive of the clerical error).

But it made sense to me then, and more so now.

Of course its conjecture... Duh!

Why is it wild? As a scenario it fits the facts we know of presently. Where is the gaping flaw in it? Where is it "wild" (or are you just toning it back to "conjecture"?

I'm trying to figure who you were before? Is it ES? you are not as psychopathically offensive but you do always attack the poster personally and never their opinion, which he always did.

Anyway, whatever: why is it "wild" speculation?

Maybe it is the Innova stockpile that is the problem after all.

Govt can't progress with placing/announcing big order for such a great test while having millions of Innova tests in their warehouses. So every week get a for more out the door.
Would also allow (if a date has been given to AS from the govt), to make announcement either the day before or at the update later this month Also explains the non-delay on sales remark by AS and has the added benefit of making sense (to me).

well, you never know, the day is not done yet!

Ophidian, thanks (Elliott waves drive me mad , but that's just me...).

BIL, I know you don't get/like charts. That's fine, but its an odds play, its not definitive, it never has been, never pretends to be. I never said it was.

It reflects buyers and sellers actions and more often than not points the way to what is coming next, but not always. bummer, eh?

G0_Man I think you are just looking at it from your own trading/investing view point?

For instance you could have bought AVCT just over a year ago at 200p and with all the news, the test, the AV6000 progress, the tie ups and being fully funded, the SP is up a pretty miserly 10% or so, in a broader investing environment where many companies have doubled, tripled or more in price.

However had you "traded" the stock then you may have more thandoubled your money in the same time frame. So timing in this game is pretty important to try and maximise profits.

This stock is not (as I have said countless times), a Day trading stock, but it has been reasonably profitable to dip in and out of based on the chart action over the last 12 month period.

But, each to his own, as ever.

Ophidian, as you gave a detailed TA breakdown previously, are you not concerned that 216p is likely to be tested? (and in truth its not so much a support as just recent low to bracket the trading range AVCT has been in since March (The actual support being further down in and around 200p)?

I ask because your previous post implied you think the mid 220's is as low as its going.

(Apologies for the spelling error in your namepreviously.)

Orphidian, you're not Sujood are you? :0)

I would not celebrate too much yet Glib, we have broken 21.5p intraday previously and fallen back so I will wait for the close before popping the cork! (but it would be nice... it just takes all the fun out of it when its this slow....)

What makes anyone think we would get a higher price from the EU?

They are a bigger market in the UK both in terms of population and potential demand being behind the UK re vaccination.

There bargaining hand is probably stronger than the UK's given we might not be supplying the UK govt or maybe not in quite as many numbers as a few months ago?

Not nego just don't quite see the logic that they will pay more for potentially a bigger order than the UK?

AVCT are only in the driving seat when demand outstrips supply. Which clearly there would seem potential for, but as all things Avacta, its not been the explosive start as hoped for (given the extra 3 weeks), in terms of hitting the ground running, which I'm afraid yet again, AS hinted it might be.

(I think the market is probably as confused and head scratching as we are here looking at the SP.)