Member Info for wyndrum

Cinder, do you follow TA? ( I ask because many "traders" do.)

Thanks UN, I am looking for a close above 4.45p to confirm the down trend is over. ( I see early signs that it is but want the rise to be more confident. I an 80% confident at the moment.) My first target would be 5p and the next 5.3p Although I imagine this will take a little time in which case there will be more chart data to re-define my expectations.

Anyway, it will be clearer at the close... could be a long day...:0))

sneaked a few in after all. 6% spread, which for eve is not the worst its ever been.....

23.15p! what happened to 30p or even 40p?

Well thanks ND,(its an old gag but what can you do, someone set them up, you have to knock them down, ha ha)

That is the most disappointing thing on these boards, people (including me but rarely I think), jump to conclusions about individuals based on the narrowest of reasons (ie just talking about one subject), and they think they "know" you and are happy to spout off their opinion of the individual and the thing is, its remarkable just how wide of the mark they are.

Its just the bloody spread that holds me back otherwise I would be in Eve like a ferret up a drain pipe... (no, that didn't come out right either...)

I am sorely tempted to stick some in EVE (that didn't come out right...)

I think the chart is very inviting right now with a confirming RSI pattern supporting the likelyhood that it has bottomed out.

Thats better...
(Although if you see Eve tell her I said hello...)

Mr A, I don't believe in horoscopes (which is odd for a Capricorn...)

For you D, anything

Sorry to hear about RMS. I know you have taken to looking at charts a bit more now and I'm sure you can see its pretty straightforward: 3 goes to break 3.05p and the 4th attempt only made it to 2.90p . (This is where money management comes in. sell when it fails to go through a resistance and then tries but doesn't even get there, but if you are wrong you buy back in at 3.1p ). Anyway, that's when the warnings were to sell. And absolute confirmation when 2.18p was broken and it fell away sharply. 2 further spikes to reverse decline topping out at 2.2p to recover and still failed.

Right now Its still in decline and still with room in the RSI for more falls. Given it looks pretty unloved I would expect it to revisit .058p (it might test 075/078 but its been so brutal and un remitting I would think its going to have to go back to what was a the last significant resistance. If that goes then 038p or thereabouts. (i know nothing about the company).
Cheers

Its on a 15m delay. type in HE1, go to chart and performance, rab lower indicators and tab RSI Cutler.

(I use close of play time intervals so the 15m is of no real importance to me.)

Hi Myoung, I soley use the RSI as an indicator with stocks and have found it to be a very reliable help in timing entry and exit. Its avaiable on HL (which have it around 61 so still neutral and not giving an indication as to whats next.)

Well, MM, I suppose you could say that, but I am pretty sure whatever happens there will quite a few that will say I was wrong!
:0))
But that's the thing, (on a more serious note), The SP has 2 options, it either goes up or down, trying to find a system that can help increase the odds in the investors favour to be on the right side when entering or exiting is to me, pretty important for maximising gains. The example I gave in a previous post when you could have bought a year ago a 202p and now today be up 20% in that time frame, or waited until December and be over a 100% up in half the time. Its not nothing when trying to compound your pot of dosh.

That was a good buy JC, (a couple of my pals bought more at that level too. I had already shot my top up bolt at 242p.. Ha!

Basically the SP now has been in a narrow band of of about 1p movement since the 26th. (I thought that needed pointing out as it mayhave gone unnoticed by others here..... :0))

The thinking on TA is that the longer a stock remains in a Trading Range the greater and more dramatic the move away from which side it breaks through is.
This reaction is compounded by the narrowness of the TR.

Given this is a relatively long time and the TR is Very Narrow, expect an explosive move when we get a close above 21.5p (I am not going to the downside... who cares....)

the chart was pretty good since the 10th of may in foretelling what came next. To recap.
10/05 closed at ATH of 275p. small retrace and had another go on 14/05 but only went to 273p. There was an argument to be made it would fall from that second failed attempt but it was just as easy to argue it could have a third go. The clearer danger signal was the fall below 266p which happened with a close at 258p on the 19th. it tried to get back above 266p but failed closing at 264p. The absolute confirmation is when it fell again below 258p on the 24th. These support levels were identified in good time and gave a heads up to what was most likely unfolding (I recall saying 235p was key at the time and said 214p was the next likely support should 235p go)
In the almost test book zig-zag down, there was the break out when the SP rallied and closed above 241p which had proved to be a level of note within a smaller TR within the larger TR. It was unfortunately short lived and I was one of some that were caught in that bull trap.
Finally 214p was breached intraday but held firm and now there has been a sharp upward move taking out previous resistance levels, namely 236p, & 242p. (Buyers piled in at the base of the support of 214p, hence the exaggerated quick move)There have also been a couple of previous spikes around 252-257p within the time frame I am discussing, so again the close on Friday at 259p bodes well for further gains having taken them out.

That was then. (and I am just looking at the chart not the news flow) What's likely next?

Its a bit muddy right now in fact. Normally after such a sharp move up further gains would be expected as that momentum carries over, and that may well be the case, but there was a similar situation last week when the SP went from 235-252 only to fall the next day down to 223p, so that will make some wary and maybe not wanting to commit until its a bit clearer.

My thoughts are it will close around 265p tomorrow, or at least flirt with it, to try and see what the sentiment is, to see how many sellers (if any) it flushes out. As I say normally, there is enough residual momentum after a singles day's big move for it to go on a bit and overall that's why I think it will rise, but its a close call. If it does fall the 250-252p looks like a level for a breather if it wants one
If you had been super relaxed, you would just patiently have been waiting for either 214p or 275p to be breached before deciding your next course of action. It gets a bit more frenetic buying/selling within the range as the risk increases of making the wrong decision.
So, for now the recent downtrend has been reversed and there are grounds for thinking its more likely to rise further, rather than fall back, but in another , wider view, its just still stuck in this broad TR and there is "nothing to see here" at 259p.
Look out for a close above 266p and a close above 275p in particular. That when the fireworks should really happen

vegas,
you are quite right I should double the tests if it's just the UK so as to take account of the return Journey but my assumption was to be conservative:
Will it be the Airports that will be responsible for the test or the airlines? Will AVCT be chosen exclusively throughout every airline/airport? We don't know yet.
Here are some more questions that I don't know the answers to (I can guess but I don't know: Maybe you can help?
Is there an NDA in place with AVCT and if so when did it start?
will there be a sovereign test?
Will it be AVCT?
Is operation Moonshot still going to take place?
Will the Govt order any tests from AVCT?
If yes ,How many (per month?)
What production (in test numbers) is available and in place for AVCT, domestically and internationally.
What is the profit Margin for the test for AVCT
Will any other test be used or will it be only AVCT (domestically or internationally)
What is the competition?
Now, this not to be negative, its simply to say that right now we are on the cusp but the unknowns make it impossible to qualify or quantify anything with regard to a valuation of any sort. And for goodness sake, its not just me that's asking these very basic questions, its every investment house that looks over the company. I mean, why wouldn't you?

Here's a really crap thought: Govt has taken and will take now, so much stick about the Innova test being authorised so quickly for home Use that they now have to perform due diligence on the AVCT test so as to prove they have "learnt lessons". Is that possible? Is that way off beam? Could there now be another delay to home use?

And finally timing: Short term v Long term.
Hers is an example:
just over a year ago you could have bought (and some did) AVCT stock for 202p, one day last week you could sell for 210p. Think about that. That 202p was based on a test soon to be released. When the test is released, it is the best in the world, certified for sale in the UK & the EU and the SP is less than 5% higher. the difference... Timing, the 12 months that have passed has been the key factor.
Or last dec you could have bought for 110p and in 6 months double our money.
Just for the record when it was over 200p last year the chart with the RSI was saying it was over bought and likely to fall. However I was posting in December and posted that this was good place to get in when the SP was about 107p (according to the chart.)
And if you are very long term, 10 years ago the SP was 100p and it is only due to covid that people who bought then are in profit now, and "research" did not forecast covid, they got lucky.
Timing is everything. Surely we can agree on that, so anything that might help time entry and exit could & should be very useful

Vegas, I have been in about 12 months ago and if you read the board back then you would know that we were to have test out in July plus waste water detection plus bams. I have held on and on and on, because every month or quarter was to be the breakthrough. and tahts fine. I'm still here, and even though there have been some wild swings from late november I ignored the rhetoric, trusted the charts and have managed to increase my wealth because of it. I have always (not that any of this matters), always had a core holding ove over 40,000 shares but and at the most 78,000 shares. Now I am at a comfortable 55,000 (for me) and have significant % increases in AGL particulalrly and an ok increase in HE1 which might turn out good like here too.

I think people forget that for me this is a means to an end.

What I don't understand is why people get so defensive when I am not attacking them? Some posters seem terribly anxious to paint me as a troll or somebody or has no holding or simply here to cause mischief just because I question where the AVCT SP might be going?

Last week when it broke 241p I bought in and told everyone. Thats forgotton of course in this latest rounf of personal abuse because some here infatuated with personalities instead of focusing on the SP.

Thats ok i guess, but this is a BB to discuss the stock. And although i keep repeating, not because "I told you so" but just to remind the detractors that I have been correct in some of my assumptions regarding both the SP movements and the speed of which events have unfolded and how that has affected the market AVCT is in.

It seems for some, actually being right still does not justify having an opinion. But hey ho whatever.

I try to invest in companies where the SP is likely to go up in the quickest time by the most amount.

The AVCT SP is, after quite a few false dawns, hopefully about to deliver. And if it does then great. If it doen't then i will move the money elsewher.

Its not complicated and its not as emotional as some seem to think it is.

of course it does ND, but I don't tend to post stuff that somebody has already posted that I agree with.

I only got into this stock because somebody convinced me it had merit and was likely to go higher.. (remember I don't care about AVCT the company, just the SP, and what might affect the SP) If I wanted to help AVCT I would sell up and send them the money to help fund their activities.

Well, PAHOO its very difficult to say how many have died from covid as opposed to with covid. Originally if you had had covid then recovered, when you died that was what put on the death certificate. So you could have it, recover, get knocked down by a bus and the DC would record covid. It was only when that was pointed out to Handjob that he changed the law on it. Even now the office of Nat Stats think maybe 25% or recorded covid deaths are "with Covid" but not from Covid". But at the same time recording the cause was changed so at just the time we needed accurate stats we made 1 Dr write it up on the DC instead of what was always 2 and they took symptoms over the phone from non-medical personal in care homes and based on what they said, and put it down as covid with no further analysis or inspection.

I am not a covid denyier by any means (or want to be) but the way we have recorded and collated this epidemic has been somewhat leaky and we are basing decisions on that data

Remember the Nightingale hospitals were never used and I have read that there was in many hospitals at the height of the crisis in the UK plenty of spare beds. (but that does not make the news, and as we know just through this latest Innova debacle, what actually goes on and what gets reported in MSM is quite often not that accurate.

I don't know if you remember but certainly over the last decade or more there have been numerous winters where the NHS has had a crisis of Bed shortages with people left in corridors and in ambulances having to be used as beds because hospitals were overwhelmed.

Currently there are 163,000 beds in the NHS, google how many are covid patients.

I am not trying to minimise what has happened but am trying to get a sense of proportion. Thats all.