Member Info for wyndrum

Oh Sorry Will, I forgot you asked a question, WILL... PAY ATTENTION, put the crayons down....

I will be buying first thing in the market tomorrow, as much as I can get hold of actually.

its going very well thank you Will. Still on the colouring books eh? well, long as you're happy, that's the main thing.

oh come on Ray, that's just not fair ... that's all we have had....whisper's & hints. …. blimey keep up....

12 months ago the SP was 367p. Where is this 33% increase money in the bank?

There is a difference between the company and its SP. The 2 are not the same thing....at all...

Esp, this not to sound as probably blunt as it does, but if you are not going to be swayed by others opinions (fair enough), then why ask for others opinions?

The only (fwiw) couple of bits of experience I would pass on is that the old adage of "only bet what you can afford to lose" needs a little refining. I am assuming you have committed about £2k's worth in this and that you can "afford" to lose it, in the sense it won't ruin your life. However as you state "...but it's still money I'd rather not lose. " suggests that you are anxious about the worst case scenario. That in turn leads me to believe that you are over committed and that anxiousness can (and probably will) translate to an emotional reaction, rather than a rational one, when either the SP rises or falls dramatically.

Does it matter? Long term yes, because another old adage " run you winning and cut your losses" is cited because most people do the opposite.

You have chosen a high risk stock in a high risk sector with a pretty much binary outcome. Anyone buying HE1 must allow for large or total capital loss, as that's the nature of exploration stocks. If you are not comfortable with that then reduce your holding to level where you can relax about any outcome.

The other fact I have learnt over the years is that it is devilishly hard to get rich quick but actually relatively easy to get rich slowly.

So, if you have time (15-30 years), be patient, invest what you feel relaxed about, ultimately losing, and you will probably find your decision making will improve as at the same time your success rate and wealth also increases. (just my opinion which feel absolutely free to ignore! :0))

Esp, I'm not sure what you want? If a number of posters (who don't actually know any more than the RNS's that you can access yourself), say "don't worry" will that alleviate your concern, or conversely, if they all said, "yes be concerned! what would you do?

It sounded to me as if you may be over committed to this stock? have you done this before or are you fairly experienced in buying and selling stocks?

Gold, long stint in the diplomatic corps, was it?

I think Hurst, the SP's next move is predicated by an order announcement.

I imagine that if the 3 week delay had no affect on sales orders, I would read as a potential explanation, that an order has/had been agreed in principle but the legal drafting was causing a "problem" and that the subsequent last 3 weeks was used to overcome that "problem". The fact that no order has yet been announced (if I am right), suggests that it is still being worked upon and until resolved we have to, (as is usual), sit on our hands a bit longer still. Whether or not it will be by Friday, who knows?

BIL, try not to fall for PL's biased inaccurate remarks. He misjudged me at the outset but is totally incapable of admitting he could (and in this case has), made a mistake. (I'll get over it..... but he is pretty repellent in his constant snide remarks to many on this board, quite why he thinks its his job or mission, or even doing any good, to be so boringly offensive. Does he really think anyone cares? Wierd...anyway I digress.)

I think we will sell into the UK but maybe not be the sovereign test. But I don't know, obviously, but the delays went on for a long time and (repeatedly) with the lack ever of an explanation from Avacta, so I tried to figure alternative scenarios' That's all. No deramping, subtle or not, just my view as events unfolded without official explanation.

The thing that maybe not everybody gets here, is that through buying and selling, over whatever time period, I am just trying to maximise my profit.

I don't "care" about Avacta, as a company, just the SP as the two are quite different things. I have no allegiance to the share certificate I own or the company it represents. I did not give AVCT any money when I bought the shares and they won't get back any of the profit (or loss) when I sell. If it sounds harsh, well that's just the reality and something every BoD know when they take their company public.

(And as it's not unheard of for CEO's to be economical with the truth at shareholders expense I stopped falling in love with companies I bought into a long time ago. )

My thinking was that 2 manufacturers that are linked with the govt and AVCT both fall when we (at last) get our test available to sell. I thought they would rise on the back of a likely soon-to - be -announced govt order. That was all.
So given that they fell, and we went up and made specific reference to t e EU CE mark maybe was pointing us in that direction rather than the UK?

ODX and ABDX down, yet they are meant to be producing the sovereign test. We come out with a test for sale and their SP falls (quite a bit), but ours doesn't.

An we don't include any order in the RNS.

But we are waiting for the EU sign off. is this a 2+2 moment?

Hi Obs, wont make any difference to the result though.

ah Pl, to be right all the time even when you have been wrong....you taught me everything I know on posting....

Still think Chinese Covid stats are reliable? Still thin AVCT was robbed when the SP went down vaccine news 7 months ago?
Still think Waste water detection and BAMS for covid is imminently going to be a huge money spinner like you did 12 months ago?
Did you ever see a delay coming in the release of the test? Did you foresee the speed of a vaccine coming, did you realise how quickly it would be rolled out?

Or do just post after the event?

Me? Good lord No.

I don't trade US or overseas stocks.

There is a difference in producing commercial batches and stockpiling millions and millions of tests I would have thought.

But hey ho, if we are or have, then great. (I guess we are still in an NDA as well?)

Hi Bunsa, knowing absolutely nothing about this stock I am probably just going to tell share holders what they already know:

For the last few months its been in a trading range between 24.29 and 30.58.

It has tested 24.5 a few times and held which makes it a strong support, but if it goes then the fall would likely be more dramatic. There is no further support so I could not give a target to where it could test lower down.

If you wanted to buy you would wait for a close and hold above the 30.58 trading range resistance with mid 30's as the target (however its all a bit messy . in and there abouts)

Or you could take a punt at 25.4 as that could be an indication that perhaps a reversal was starting to form. if it then went to a close and hold above 26.6 then that would be stronger evidence that more highs were coming.

You could even buy now and with stop of 24 which give an ok ish risk reward, but there is no indication that a reversal is taking place, Which to me, means its not a 50/50 that it could go up or down from here but is more likely to go down based on no evidence of reversal of the long term down trend.

so (if it were me) I would not buy presently at this price on the chart info (25.11)

Well, you never know..... its starting to move up (at last)

SG, You're right, when you say it out loud it makes perfect sense! (Kev, I take it back!)

BIL, but you would not do that in the HOPE, that you would find an end user on a product that was not yet issued for sale. (The assumption that it is going to be available soon, is all very well, but given the 12 months of delays, to be so assured that there would be no further hold up's would seem a high risk strategy to sink several £m into?

ODX still haven't been given the nod to produce it yet, so we may or may not be sovereign supplier? There is no joined up, "as soon as its certified, lets fire up the Quattro" type urgency from govt depts?

But maybe you are right, but I just don't see why any Co. would take the risk that you can't see that was potentially there.

The problem I have with the stock piling idea is: who pays?

Who pays for the production? Why would GAD pay for producing a test that is not fit for sale? (say something had gone wrong and it was not certified?) Nothing is guaranteed and you think they trust the Govt any more than we do? (Can't be us because we are talking about a lot of money tied up in millions (maybe tens of millions) of tests sitting around, and where are they, where are they being stored?

And of course we had a 3 week delay. but apparently that has made no difference to orders? If they had been stockpiling it, it was a delay of 3 weeks more than forecast, before the test could have gone out, affecting budgets/payments etc.

And as of right now, no orders have been confirmed, so the CE validation would have been released with confirmation of an order wouldn't it?

Anyway, that's my case for no stockpiling