Member Info for Worya

Its one of those shares that has multiple false dawns.

Currently its depressed by the ongoing car finance issue. I am no clear what Lloyds liability is if any, surely its on the person getting the commission to disclose it, not on the the people providing the finance. but as always with these things it ends up with those with the deepest pockets to cover ( the banks).

best outcome would be supreme courts stops this all, share price 60-70. Worst Lloyds is down a few billion and the share price is a 30-40 share for a few years.

At the last quarter update for ftse. (2 months ago).

If was due to the severely depressed share price, they are comfortably back in range now and expected to enter shortly.

DEC'S model relies on them to make new purchases to offset the decline in gas output. If they did not purchase they would not be able to sustain the dividends and (eventually) go out of business as they won't have more gas to sell.

They have made the most of a low gas price, high interest environment to get some deals through. Given the new bullish outlook for gas these deals look even better value, and retrospectively I for one wished they bought more.

Am i happy at the price crash and reduced dividend absolutely not, but sometimes that's how things go. What I am happy about is the company has secured its future for the next few years and is back on the up

I bet people are now thinking maybe DEC should have made more deals while prices were still low

It's more important how long natural gas prices stay up, but signs are good this will be the case for the next few months.

It's been an accelerated push up from dec, I suspect it will settle for a while before next push, but with DEC you never know and it might just go on

Wow momentum is still really strong, thought we'd have some profit taking at some point.

If this continues next hurdle would 1300

I would suggest the short level is very likely higher then 7.7% as only shorts about 0.5% show up, likely a few more below this level. I would take an educated guess the level is closer to 10%.

Your premise of them needing to buy back at some stage still stands but likely meals even more of an uplift

It was interesting reading the coal methane capture benefit.

Does anyone know how this works and why dec would be better situated to take advantage of it. I'm happy for the extra income just not sure how it's generated and why others aren't doing it

I suspect oil might be down but gas will be up with more LNG terminals.

Looks like dec is heading back into the ftse250 for certain now.

Hopefully shorts continue to reduce and we slowly creep toward 1300+

I suspect the drop is due to the wider market rather then the results, which are good if not spectacular.

This is lloyds and good, boring results are whats expected and needed

A lot will depend on the midweek results.

But it may touch mid 60s before the likely retrace

Kevin good post, I agree with you analysis of the situation.

I suspect this would have the effect of suppressing the share price, short term, due to higher costs such as ni(lloyds is a large employer), bank levy, GGT is a disincentive for stocks and shares traders. Longer term if it balances the economy and growth increases it would be positive

Hey guy's,

I've been trading lloyds for many years and am aware of past highs, however fleeting.

The reason I suggest 66 is lloyds is often just driven by sentiment, given recent inflation figures and expected rate drop + results expected this week + break out above 60. Optimism is high and can propel this stock to the mid 60s before profit taking kicks in and some new gloom story appears that driven it back down.

I'm hoping I can see at a decent price and try and buy back in sub 60

I'm no mystic meg so my prediction could all be wrong

Whats the concensus about this stock reaching 66p or above.

I personally think /hope in the next week it will reach close to that figure before dropping back

Grey geogre,

I'm clearly no expert on this as I didn't really expect the drop to be so dramatic and sadly got it wrong, my average is around 16. It was probably valued too highly at 25 and significantly too low now.

I suspect the biggest reason for the drop is a combination of higher interest rates, larger debt then expect and declining gas prices, combining for the perfect storm. Shorter took advantage and why wouldn't they.

I'm currently just holding and reinvesting dividend to lower my average.

Rrb,

Thanks for you contributions, I have found them actually useful as its always good to have both sides of an argument (especially when both side have logic to them). I do agree the ARO are a issue for DEC and how they will manage them remains to be fully seen (via profits from next level, sinking fund in future, hydrogen storage, legally abandoned..... i dont know). However this issue is in no way imminent, the current day to day running of the business would have excess cash to cover all expenses for the next few years, so what you actually doing is having an educated guess about the future 10-20years +. I would say we do not know what the future will hold and what the gas prices would be ..... could it reach 6-8 dollars in future means even low producing Wells continue to be profitable.? Who knows

From your below calculation one key aspect you may have missed is that due to debt amortisation, it will actually be paid off well before the Wells stop producing, so alot of the overheads re interest and repayment will be gone and any extra income can be diverted to ARO.

I welcome your contributions but also agree repeating ARO issue while factually important has become a little tiresome

I would suggest they biggest fundamentals to change that would have the greatest impact on share price.

1 debt level

2 interest rates

3 gas prices

2 and 3 are heading in the right direction.

Debt is more difficult as the company need it maintain gas production (as this decreases by 10% a year). The company would need to reach a level of profitability where new purchases can be made from cash generated, then the amortisation will get rid of the vast majority of debt.

I'm with ii and I've already been paid, they are generally quite quick with payment. I only checked today but it could have arrived as early as Friday.

I would contact them to see why the delay (did you buy before ex divi date?)

Well I just used a 2k divi from another stock to top up here, bought at 832 earlier today.

Will do the same when the dec dividend comes through.

Time will tell if this is a wise choice

What is the new acquisition he is talking about in this video? He stated they just made a new one today and the video is dated 09/09/24