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Fine line between over enthusiastic and ramping but I think its very clear that skiramp is about 5 miles past that line in his ramping. Also I found his posts inconsiderate to the long term holders.
agree re the pull back - some profit taking is expected but I hope it holds above 1100
Hey guy's,
I've been following this stock from a far for a little while, was kicking myself why I didn't get in earlier at around 180s.
However I'm confused regarding the current sp decline, any specific reason for this ?
As the new isa allowance has opened up I'm thinking of dumping the entire 20k on this stock if it reaches low 190s.
Ofcourse I'll do my own reading but libg term holders perspective is always welcome
I would say strategicly dec has made the right decision by reducing its dividend burden, especially as we enter a low yield gas profit phase (even if hedged).
First it means they can safely meet current dividend expense and fear of sudden cut or even insolvency are reduced.
Secondly it frees up cash for some choice investment opportunities that are likely to open up, as other producers may not have hedged and would need cash injection/bankruptcy but outs.
What really sucks is that the company was advertising and insisting it would not cut dividend and lured in alot of people at higher prices, this makes them lose alot of credibility going forward. Instead of all that rns stating everything is OK maybe a heads up re future financial difficulties would have been better.
Hopefully the share continues its recent revival, I will continue to reinvest dividend but reluctant to add new capital
Thanks for that ACE very insightful.
The real question is how long will gas prices be depressed. If its only 12-18months then DEC should be well covered with hedges and making a little less on the 15-20% that's unhedged.
Any longer and then the company and investors will be in real trouble. Last time I recall something like $3 dollars is the price dec made alot of there forecast but I can't remember where.
I'm gonna hold for now and reinvest what I get which is diminishing low
The benefit is slight.
You get a 5% premium on the stock price at the tine of the exchange. You can then, if so wish so, use the capital return to buy more shares.
I feel this is more targeted at large II who want to sell out but if the do on the market would lower the price and thus their return. Also a good point from troksy that dividend tax is different in America so pi might prefer the capital return.
If only 10% take up that would still equate to a large BB of approx million dollars, nothing to be sniffed at especially if this occurs every 3 months.
I think its an option that makes sense to a few but doesn't hurt the company, so a win win.
Not sure why this has been discussed so endlessly on the board.
Clued I think GG has come a bit as he made a bit more sense then some of the current comments on this board. I think we all have to except that 50% of people have below average intelligence
I'm beginning to think GG was right about the members on this board.
The max tender offer will cost is the dividend amount +5%, that's it no more then that. They probably calculated this will be a nill effect as the next dividend would be reduced by the number of shares repurchased.
The benefit to the company is that they have enacted a BB with money already allocated for divi. I feel this is primarily aimed at ii that what to sell there shares rather then pi who wouldn't gain much.
I am not sure what the take up of the offer is hut assume it would be low 20-30% would be amazing.
For those holding long term, and for the company, the more who take up the offer the better as it makes future dividends less costly and more certain.
Blacksteel, very interesting post.
Unfortunately I don't have the time or accounting skills to go through the numbers.
Would you mind going the the numbers with me regarding why you suspect DEC would have some difficulty with cashflow/divi payments come second half of 2024.
From my rudimentary understand this is why they recently sold some premium gas well fields and raised some 200m in extra capital to pay off debt ect
From the outset I'd like to point out I am bullish about DEC.
In the last few months this forum has started to sound more and more like an echo chamber, anyone who criticises the stock is shut down. Just today some legitimate questions regarding trading update and divi were completely shot down.
Based on this forum alone everything is great with dec, when in reality the share is over 60% down, and its not just a short attack.
I was hoping for a little more from management regarding the current position and explaining future out look outside of a few sound bites. I understand this is a trading update only but given the unique position of the share price a little more can be expected.
Anyway in future can we all be a little more open to criticism as it will make for a better debate around the truth about dec.
This is a crazy stock.
Alot of this stems from the management, they have made the company look more vulnerable then it should (based in the accounts, but I have to take it at face value that's correct).
I thought about selling out but at this stage thinking might as well see it through.
Only silver lining is the states do appear keen on this share and the volumes today are very high 500k+ shares.
Let's see what the trading update brings
4.942M shares traded today against an average of 396k. Some major exchanges of shares, I suspect a large BB was carried out as well.
The only good news is someone is picking up these shares and the price held today, It would need to hold / rise for a few consecutive days / weeks to push back the shorters.
In response to some of the people the shorters are not the problem here, they are just the symptoms and inevitable event of the BOD weird actions or lack thereof in the last few months. They really need to get a handle of the SP with the next set of financial results.
Trek I don't know how you keep averaging down and not at a loss. There hasn't really been uptick in Dec to lock in a profit to sell and wait for a dip, unless you have very large reserves in the background.
I wish you the best, on the face of it appears your strategy is working much better then mine. My isa is maxed and down a huge amount on Dec, my worst preforming share by some margin, the only thing I can do is reinvest the divi but at some stage it feels like throwing good money after bad.
Needing 1800+ to start seeing some profit here
I don't know what's happening here, I thought I done due diligence before investing but in close to 50% down at this stage, I always knew ut was a but if a punt but not ine that would go so horribly wrong.
I m starting to lose faith in the board, recently one horrible decision after another.
Congress letter out of the blue
Not much if any pick up from the states (I thought they were drumming up support)
Getting ris of core assets, why if you are financially secure
I agree with others regarding weak response letter.
Weird BB strategy.
All the above likely invites new shorters as the are just looking for opportunities
Saying all this I intend to hold as I don't see current share price as fair value and the company has maintained dividend for the last 5 years or so. Hopefully things will pick up but the board or directors need to do a little more then issue an rns saying nothings changed here.
I'm confused by the latest sale.
These appear to be core assets that are being sold, admittedly at a good price. The only reason I see is that they are worried debt is becoming more unmanageable long term and trying to bring it down, or have a very good deal lined up that they need to draw equity for and normal ways, such as share issue or asking lenders, are no go areas.
It's not the best look if i am honest but the market appears to like it.