Member Info for Wigwammer

Oxford efficacy 70%. Does this put covidity in the spotlight to find a competitive uk option?

Oxford 70% effective. So lower efficacy but cheaper to produce. Does this put covidity back in the spotlight as a uk developed option?

The interesting thing is the non exclusivity. If the other majors join schlumberger, does Plexus become the ARM of the wellhead market?

Capacity will likely multiply again as the new POC tests are introduced. Regarding the pension review, the financing is settled up to 2022 with payments defined in the RNS in August. From a valuation pov - depends whether you use the accounting deficit of £40m (best estimates) or actuarial deficit of £90m (which uses more conservative assumptions). Assuming the enterprise is worth around 1.5x sales given 10% margins + growth potential = circa £150m. Post debt £125m. That would suggest the equity is worth around 48p using the actuarial deficit, or well over £1 using the accounting deficit. Either way - we should see an attractive return. Risks for me - aero division outlook is uncertain and manufacturing sites may experience infection. But all in - I think the risk/reward here looks highly compelling.

Carclo usually give an update mid October, but many companies are citing Covid as a reason to do things differently. Last operating update here was mid August, so probably due something soon.

Hi Warren, has the company confirmed there will be a trading update on Monday? Would be interesting, but can’t recall the company stating there will be.

That’s true fostany, although the vast majority of the technical plastics division is medical disposables which are likely to be less impacted. Given the increasing evidence that vast quantities of diagnostic disposables, syringes, inhalers will be required for testing, vaccinating and treating Covid and any future derivatives - there is a reasonable expectation that top line expectations may surprise to the upside going into Q4 and 2021. The statement also mentioned diagnostic contracts in the plural - they are not beholden to a single technology. Carclo also have the advantage of being able to design locally and produce globally - Europe, US, China, India - which again delivers on the need to get things done at pace from a regulatory and cost perspective. Bottom line - the narrative should be positive under most conceivable scenarios.

Management did provide an update in August, which they may deem as sufficient for now. There does appear to be secrecy around plc’s involved with moonshot - I speak really about avacta - where there are suspicions that government is trying to keep progress under raps. Understate and over-deliver. Carclo has recently signed material contracts in disposable diagnostics and you don’t need to be a master sleuth to suspect they are Covid related. Fingers crossed Q4 brings more visibility around this and garners greater attention to what should be a great recovery story.

Interesting chat. From a competitive pov 1) they have won the contract with darpa - which suggests their technology is in pole position. 2) pre Covid gross margins of 57% are high, which suggests they own the most relevant IP, otherwise the margin would be diluted by pay aways. Given they have been in the process of ramping production 7 fold over the last year or two, one can only imagine that gross margin figure will rise as and when capacity is filled. In short, their technology is winning and they likely own a highly substantial part of the relevant IP estate.

“ What we have heard in interviews is not new...” the pathogen detection technology is new, and its relevance to solving today’s covid problem, and no doubt tomorrow’s prevention strategies, could not be greater. They own a key technology. If this were not the case - DARPA would not be signing multi million usd deals with them.

I don’t think anyone is precluding your comment. Are they? You want to talk about the write down. I want to make people aware that the valuation remains low against history, and many posters will be disgruntled about missing the lows.

Remember. There are going to be people here who are upset they didn’t buy lower down yesterday. That’s understandable. But look at the 1 year chart and 5 year chart - we are at all time lows - and the story has never been more developed or relevant.

Quote. “We have a unique disruptive technology we are developing in conjunction with darpa, the only technology of its kind that can take an air sample and then identify the pathogenic content of this sample on a continuous basis in a fully automated manner...”

Rakesh Sharma OBE. Take a look at the 25 year chart on ultra electronics. I don?t think he?d waste his time here unless he sees positive things ahead. ATB

Closes at high of the day. Bodes well for tomorrow :)

With all due respect, when it comes to AIM that sort of thing happens all the time. I don’t see any reason why Duncan’s career would be in tatters - they have repeatedly stated the trial is blinded and they don’t know the result.

Yes. All we need is a positive result. We haven’t got one yet. Hopefully find out soon.

“releasing these words on the 30th (added below) and talking about a potential poor RNS is nonsense...” it’s a blinded study, and Duncan probably didn’t know the result when he wrote those words. I certainly hope people aren’t going to hold those words against him in the event the result is not good, because the company have been very clear the result is uncertain. The only positive they have offered regarding the trial is the objective and statistical one - at the interim stage the result was non futile.

If we are getting a trading update soon, the board evidently want the new man to own the narrative. Hence the departure of Antony Collins. You would only want the new guy to own the narrative if it was going to be positive.

Hi volatility - I’ve gone back over the last 10 years and show the number of shares in issue each year below, and as you can see - even assuming the small increase for the acquisition in 2015/16 - there has been little dilution. That’s one of the really interesting things given the shares have been as high as 470p over that period. Yes, they have lost the wipac division but since that 470p peak the technical plastics division has organically grown to cover the business lost (and arguably now has a better mix)...

2010 - 61m shares in issue
2011 - 62m
2012 - 62m
2013 - 65m
2014 - 66m
2015 - 66m
2016 - 73m
2017 - 73m
2018 - 73m
2019 - 73m
2020 - 73m