Member Info for Wigwammer

Gallmat - you beat me to it :)

Chasable - come on, it’s not that hard. You’ve got a plane full of people on a flight from China. The equipment installed on the plane detects an unknown pathogen, like covid. You quarantine the plane. If it had been installed December 2020, it would have played a key role in identifying and restricting the spread outside China. Similar roles on passenger ships, hotel, and so on.

Worth noting also, IMO - the shares have given up almost exactly $300m since last Friday.

I guess the usual strategy is to sell the rumour and buy the fact, in this case - buy when the fine is announced. Trouble is that with 8% of the stock already out on loan - one of the highest in the U.K. market - it?s a crowded trade. If the fine is within expected boundaries - around the $300m level - the shorters may find the supply of shares dries up pretty quick.

Poker - ok. I don’t think valuing a cyclical facing litigation penalties using a div multiple is the best approach to getting ball park on the medium term value, but to each their own. ATB

“looking back - was over £5 around April 19 ... “ ... a great observation fre. It was £5 mid 2019, £4 early 2020 ... not long ago ... the current valuation is in the wrong ball park, taken down by marginal shorters. IMO

First things first, poker. Are you conceding therefore that £5 a share looks reasonable ex litigation, using a 0.7x ev:sales multiple on £3bn sales?

It could be that Rye Bay and their £100m pot are all seeing and all knowing. Or it could be they are the naive marginal shorter giving PI’s everywhere a late Christmas present.

Not net margin, OP margin. Through cycle the op margin achieved looks to be about 7%, so an ev:sales of around 0.7x is justified. With £250m net debt gets you to £5 a share for the equity. It’s been dumped and dumped and is now in the wrong ball park.

At some points, the large specialist litigation funds in the US may be interested in taking on the Rye Bay Death Star (who?.?!!} ... in the car of Indivior, the funds won hands down, and carry on winning. +160% off the lows by the time they settled. My guess - with 7% margins on a circa £3bn sales base, this worth £5 once litigation is done and dusted.

“From the shorters view point ..they would probably be looking at it and suggesting that....there was no reason for it to have gone up...” ... surely an impressive rise in the oil price is an objective and tangible reason why it went up?

In terms of how the markets play out litigation uncertainty. By the time Indivior settled with the DoJ in July 2020, the stock had already risen 160% off its 2020 lows. It carried on rising afterwards. Indivior are to make payments over 7 years ie. repayment is designed to be affordable, not break the company.

So are you saying it is worth zero then, PYUECK? If not, how much? I think everybody understands that an SFO investigation is not helpful - yer not adding much by saying that. But with the shares trading around levels not seen since it floated, perhaps it is priced in. If you don’t get that - perhaps you shouldn’t be shorting. Check Indivior rebound off lows last year as an example of how such cases can work out. Happy shorters suddenly wiped..

It is also likely - given recent volume - that the Miton overhang is now gone.

Thanks skid. The questions have been asked, several times. And looking at the share price chart I don’t think it has been ignored at all. It’s halved, right?

I suggest that anyone who believes the success of the other vaccines is bad news for scancell goes back and reads the literature pertaining to the last fund raise. The purpose of the cash is clearly and predominantly to develop the core technologies in oncology, with covidity near the bottom of the list. The faster we get back to normal the faster these trials progress from the “wriggle room” and into the clinic.. “In particular, proceeds from the Capital Raise are expected to be used to:

-- Initiate and advance new and existing ImmunoBody(R) and Moditope(R) programmes, such as Modi-2, which is currently in pre-clinical development

-- Expand the Company's resources and capabilities in development and clinical operations to expedite programmes to the clinic and broaden their potential clinical utility

-- Build on existing antibody expertise to further advance the preclinical development of the TaG antibodies, including as antibody-drug conjugates ("ADC")

-- Supplement the Innovate UK funding for the rapid development of a COVID-19 vaccine
-- Broaden the Company's intellectual property portfolio. “

Hi skid,
Could you please remind us why you own it?

Well.. I think we know who another one of the sellers is!

From memory, the average maturity of the deficit/pension is 13 years with a full maturity of 27 years. Ie we are dealing with a very long term maturity and the company has sufficient time to resolve the issue both through repayment and asset growth. I can see the point of a rights issue but surely the better plan is to use the 3 year financing window to get the house in order, get the valuation of the business and share price up, and then do a less dilutive issue at a much higher price. Yes it has dropped 50% from the peak but it’s also up 200% from the lows - so I’m not sure the drop tells you anything other than that weak holders are exiting. Medium term the prospects are positive - it’s a structural growth sector and they have positions with many of the largest global medical device suppliers. 10% op margin plus growth suggests an ev:sales of circa 1.3x. Deduct £60m pension deficit and £30m net debt still leaves £40m for holders or circa 50p a share. The maths part is easy - the difficult part is having the patience to hold on through the selling. ATB. IMHO :)

Gremlins!