Member Info for Wigwammer

The market is well aware that the reason the cash balance is £1m+ is because they sold the incanthera position. And the reason that the position was sellable - and warrants “in the money” - is because Tim managed to negotiate a deal with one of the largest retailers in the world. Well done Tim, getting deals like that is not easy. Clearly shareholders are now hoping he can achieve a comparable deal for the immupharma assets. If you do believe it, hang on to your shares. If you don’t believe it, sell your shares. If you want to prove yourself to be a finger pointing keyboard warrior, incapable of accepting responsibility for your own decisions, then hold on to your shares and keep moaning about Tim. ATB

“I suspect the warrant date will be extended , if indeed they have not exercised them...”… Yes pokerchips, I can also see that happening. ATB

Ok justaquicky. But the experience of 2007 is only loosely relevant to what is likely to happen if the policy is enacted, because a far smaller proportion of the population now smoke, and over the course of a year far more drinks are consumed inside pubs than outside. Thats the British weather for you. I suspect it is also going to be quite hard to enforce, because non smokers such as myself may take offence to someone lighting up inside, but frankly couldn’t care two hoots if they do so in a pub garden. They should be free to do so if they wish, I hope they do, and I won’t be complaining. It’s just KS playing silly rhetoric and politics.

JD Wetherspoon founder Tim Martin said: "I don't think it will have a big effect on our business, one way or another." With respect, I suspect he knows the relevant stats.

Will it be done soon? Hard to know. They have possibly shipped another 2-3% of their remaining holding over the last couple of days (so far). But if you believe in the value of the underlying asset and have no intention to sell, the short term volatility should matter little. ATB

That would be my guess too… GLA

I’ve added back what I sold after the previous results at around 280p. These weren’t great results but I think they will make back most of the lost free cash in H2, and finish the year with about £500m net debt. Their markets seem to be stabilising with a material amount of self help still to get through, even in the absence of broader economic recovery. The divestment program is also rumbling on in the background, so may get one or two positive surprises from that angle in 2024. Maintain my 3 year target @750p based on eventual recovery to £300m EBITDA and attaching a conservative valuation multiple. GLA

Sequential movement in net debt is not great, rising £60m over the half (around £40m relates to the fine). But bottom line is - they produced negative underlying free cash, probably to working capital.

Poor old lollywally has done the right thing and quit before digging his hole any deeper. Anyone with a brain cell can work out that if he bought his shares before and around April 2022 - as he stated - then he is sitting on a horrendous loss. Little wonder therefore that he is so bitter and incapable of rational argument when it comes to immupharma. Best keep this in mind and take what he says with a big pinch of salt.. GLA

But you have told us the price you paid, lollywally. In April this year you posted “That's why I've held on to my shares - the second & final batch of which was bought almost 2 years ago.” Well two years ago means you bought the second batch at around 7p in April 2022, and given that was around the all time low I can only fear about what you paid for the first batch. So to repeat - they haven’t trashed my shares, lollybore, they have trashed yours. Little wonder you can’t think rationally about it. ATB

Lolly - they haven’t trashed my shares, they have trashed yours. And the underlying asset isn’t impacted by their selling, especially now Imm have cash from the incanthera sale. The bizarre thing is you bought the shares for some multiple of where they are now, but seem to believe they have become more expensive as the price has fallen.

Gold girl - TWO late stage assets!

Fingers crossed the immupharma position will eventually fund a few more trips to Santorini..

Lolly - you mean the share price has fallen? Yes - from the perspective of someone who bought too early at multiples of the current price, I’m sure it looks like a car crash. From the perspective of those of us who were patient and bought at these lower levels, it looks like an opportunity.

Lolly - it’s nothing like that at all. The car is not being smashed up. It is simply being offered to you at a lower and lower price, because the seller has little interest in the fundamental value of the item being sold.

Well, if the share price was a lot higher it wouldn’t be anywhere near as attractive. I am happy buying off Lanstead - they make money and keep businesses afloat, but the mechanical nature of their selling also creates opportunities. Around 99% of my position has been purchased under 2p. Would never have been possible without Lanstead’s help. ATB

Myth-busting… “In any event, diversified hedge fund investing appears to have underperformed in modern (post-GFC) times. For the 15 years ending June 30, 2023, the HFR Fund-Weighted Composite Index had an annualized return of 4.0%. This compares to a 4.5% return for a blend of public market indexes with matching market exposures and similar risk, namely, 52% stocks and 48% Treasury bills.5 By this measure, the hedge fund composite underperformed by 0.5% per year”https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/06/26/hedge-funds-a-poor-choice-for-most-long-term-investors/#:~:text=In%20any%20event%2C%20diversified%20hedge,an%20annualized%20return%20of%204.0%25.

So the net debt is high at about £1.4bn, on which they are paying about £83m net interest including the hybrid payment, and they need to revolve the £500m hybrid in November 2025. So with op profit of around £200m they can quite easily meet the £83m interest payment, and they have just revolved a E500m facility for 8 years at 4.75% in Sept 2023.. So - whats the equity market so spooked about?

Target for me here is 0.7x book, or about 65p. At that point will reassess… GLA

Yawn. Gibberish. Best of luck with your other investments.

I agree ash, it’s looking good… :)