RE: Looking back again.17 Jul 2024 11:36
“but what you are basically looking at, and Avion are doing the same ..is deciding what the probability of success is…” … at this stage you are looking at the probability of multiple triggers that could drive the shares, prior to looking at the probability of trial success.. 1) the probability of Orion reporting and initiating the trial plan.. 2) confirmation of Avion funding.. 3) partnership announcement confirming the funding of the CIDP trial 4) partnership announcement relating to row marketing rights for lupuzor, and so on… Positive news on any of these fronts could lead to a multiplication of the shares from this level, as we saw during the first phase 3 where the shares nearly ten bagged off the lows prior to the result being announced. But there will be some here who simply repeat the mistake they made last time - wait for confirmation of the more predictable things mentioned above, purchase the shares at a much higher level than now, and play the biggest risk of all - trial success. I know of one big time cynic here who did exactly that and bought at 150p, now sitting on a 98%+ loss, and by the sounds of it will do similar this time. Little wonder he doesn’t like talking about his trades.. :)