Member Info for Wigwammer

Tim had 8.1m options in Immupharma outstanding as of December 2023, and was awarded a further 8m options in March 2024... So 16.1m in total or around 3.8% of the current issued capital… So by any reasonable definition, Tim has material “skin in the game”.

That is a good observation Leister, and I know at least one of those investors who has already loaded. In addition, there is a bearish contingent that did the opposite - loaded at the top and now try to point the finger elsewhere… It is positive news that Avion have stated they will fund the trial, but it is even better news that the FDA has cleared them for two phase 3’s in blockbuster indications. The regulator sees not only that p140 is worth trying again at a much higher dose, but it should also be trialled as a phase 3 in a different indication. No certainties of course, but the payoff is hugely assymetric to the upside IMO, and patience will pay off. ATB

Good posts Travis. From report early June : “The new Phase 3 study will include a dose-range over 20 times higher than the previous Phases 3..” Multiplying the dose 20 fold is one good reason to think the outcome may be different this time.

Well I’ve bought back the shares I sold when 4corners went positive at 22p. I see over on advfn that GenRomer - another excellent contrarian signal - has just turned negative, and that is music to my ears. GMS has been a fantastic share for me over the last 18 months, and I suspect the debt reduction - which has driven the rerating - is and will continue into the future. I suspect we will sooner or later see a few high volume days and the loose shares will be bought up by one or more interested institutions. ATB

On the 15th March2024 it was reported that Justin Platt purchased £100k of shares at just below 30p. Does ithat change your view, jedclampit?

Yes. Handwinder. A year ago McBride traded at a fraction of its debt. So did GMS. So did Renold. The list goes on…. Take a look now… The other angle is obviously the vast assets they own… ATB

You would have to go back to the 2018/19 accounts and check… £530m acheived... Bit of homework for you and let us know what you find. .. In the meantime, does 16x ebit sound like a steal to you?

Fairdealer - the market has reflected on where Carlsberg are at, and knocked the shares by nearly 10% over a month, and 16% over a year. Neither the market or shareholders agree with you that it is “only good news”. Nor did Carlsberg get a steal with the brewing assets, as you suggest. At 16x ebit I will be generous and say they paid a fair price, assuming material synergies. I’m sure Marston’s overlevered and followed a damaging strategy in the past - I didn’t own the shares then - but I suspect that damage is now reflected in the valuation of 0.3x book… Nor do I agree with your suggestion about general levels of company profitability post covid. A broadening range of companies are returning to pre covid levels of profit, and this in large part explains why both the FTSE250 and 100 are approaching, and even surpassing pre covid levels. From memory, the underlying pub op margins achieved here last year were sub 10% - would have to check - but in any case, the interest cost will be falling which will lower the bar. And they don’t have to get all the way back to 20% pub op margins to make the shares highly rewarding for holders… ATB

Hi ell. Not sure which figures you are referring to. The interest charge was circa £100m for last FY, minus the £18m the company expects to save post divestment. Gets us to £82m expected. Sales expectation for this year is £900m. So 82/900 = 9% op margin required to meet interest payments. Above that - it goes to shareholders. The 18-22% op margin achieved in pubs pre covid is simply taken from the annual reports in the years leading up to 2020. Re divestment multiples - we know brewing earned circa £32m ebit pa from the 2018/19 accounts. Plus we have the full cost of Carlsberg's takeover contained in yesterdays RNS.. “ Marston's will have exited its brewing operations for a total consideration of £473 million. Additionally, Marston's has received an incremental £54.8 million[9] of dividends from CMBC since 2020.” Hope that helps. GLA

Hmm…. So allegedly this can only be good news for Carlsberg shareholders? Carlsberg shares are down 9% over the month and 16% over a year.. And taken in total, Carlsberg have paid around £530m for the brewing op - that’s over 16x ebit, or over 20x PE. Not exactly a steal I would say…. With a £900m turnover base, and substantially reduced interest costs, Marstons now has to earn a circa 9% op margin to cover interest costs. This compares to the 18%-22% op margins they achieved in pubs prior to Covid. While I accept drinking habits have changed within some demographics, they have not changed so much for the typical Marstons customer. Coupled with this, a material part of the competition has now been removed - so if you want to visit a local community pub for drink or food or football, Marstons is operating in an increasingly uncluttered field… Personally, I think these shares have got a good chance of doing very nicely, not least because there remains a lot of highly consensual and not always well informed scepticism out there. ATB

In the event the shares do recover, WE will not forget the posters who did their best to unsettle and put poorly reasoned doubt in the minds of holders at 2p.. ATB

Good post, Dallo.

Hi SC - I suspect the current price pressure is due to Coltrane exiting their position, having announced a circa 1% sale on 14th June. Bear in mind this genius outfit had all the brains to purchase their position at around 60p in May 2022, and are perhaps applying the same cunning foresight by exiting at half the price they paid… ATB

Well who could possibly forget the time barchid sold some Marston’s shares to pay a tax bill? .. One of the most beautiful and interesting personal stories I’ve ever heard… :)

Cauldstream - my posts are certainly not meant as advice, and it is for each poster to do their own research and make a decision that’s right for them. I believe that successful investment in this area requires patience, and both immupharma investors in 2015/16 and incanthera investors more recently were ultimately rewarded for such, and after long periods of news silence. The risk/reward here appears highly favourable, I have been buying shares between 120p-260p in recent months and Imm is now my second largest position. But at the same time, there are no certainties here. While that uncertainty creates the opportunity of buying the shares at circa 2p, it does mean that until the trial is up and running and demonstrably funded we cannot know for sure that it is going to happen. One way of assuaging some of that uncertainty would be for the company to identify tangible signals of progress and present them to the market. It’s just a thought…. It was certainly positive to hear wildbunch reflect positively on the AGM, I also take comfort from the point that immupharma is still engaged with prestigious organisations like the CNRS, and that multiple meetings/calls with the FDA have been competed, the result being they get a green light to do two phase 3 studies on blockbuster indications. I can see why Avion and Art Deas are interested in being part of it. Fantastic potential upside, but still risks, and patience required… ATB

I hope so Dallo, but there are always shades of grey. Orion have been given the contract, but have they spent the last 7 months pushing the work around or are they in the final stages of delivering a trial plan? Avion committed some years ago to funding the trial, but is that commitment just verbal or is the money about to be sent to Orion’s account? Until the Lupuzor trial is up and running and being funded the market will remain sceptical. One way of assuaging some of that scepticism would be to identify tangible indications that things are progressing, and inform the market. It is not necessarily for us to identify what those things need to be or what would be appropriate - but 7 months is quite a long time for things to go quiet, albeit not quite as long as the 10 month silence we experienced prior to the start of the last phase 3… ATB

Just to add - I guess they need to do a deal on the CIDP side, because the trial isn’t yet funded. So it may make sense to wait until the Lupuzor trial is up and running to sort out an ex US marketing partnership, but a deal on the CIDP side in 2024 should really get the story motoring. In the event they can get a deal done - two funded phase 3 assets in blockbuster indications. ATB

Thanks wildbunch and well done for attending.

I agree an update would be helpful. We had the final results a few weeks ago, but I think many investors see that material as quite generic.

What would be good to build confidence is a statement saying that Orion are working productively on the trial preparation, what sort of things this involves, and crucially that Avion remain committed to funding it. Perhaps also some guidance on when we will hear more about the final trial design from Orion.

If the trial can be started, avion remain committed to funding, and no further dilution is necessary, then I think the shares will eventually take care of themselves. We do not need to cut deals to achieve these things, and It feels to me like that immupharma may get improved terms once the trial is demonstrably up and running.

But an update and clarification on what is happening with Orion would help sentiment, and the level of share price short term is relevant fundamentally because it impacts the level of cash inflows from Lanstead.

ATB

Hi cauldstream, i understand it’s a slow process, but perhaps the sale of the incanthera stake gives them the breathing space they need, and accepting a low ball offer just to get a few million cash in at this stage is no longer the priority… Surely it would be better to get the trial up and running, and demonstrably making progress toward a phase 3 result, before committing to a deal that potentially gives away a lot of the upside? They retain all of their original ownership of the ex-US rights to Lupuzor, and all their original rights to CIPD. So they retain a lot of asset and will have a stronger hand once the trial start. During the last ph3, it took around 10 months between awarding the contract to Orion and seeing a developed trial update. We are about 7 months through that process now. I wasn’t at the AGM but would be useful to hear the perspective of anybody who was… ATB

So a lovely development on the brewing side, combined with potential operational leverage on the pub side. Re pubs - op margins pre covid were 18-21%, a lot of competitive capacity has come out, and one can expect with economic visibility improving combined with multiple sporting events this year, that a lot of the remaining capacity will get used. The needle is moving in their favour… ATB