Member Info for Wigwammer

You objectively talk gibberish, fairtrader. Your decision to own Marstons in 2019 at peak debt levels and at no discount to book was a resounding disaster. A discount of 200% to 95p is minus 95p, not the 30p you stated. I accept people make mistakes, investments go wrong and posters make mathematical errors. But you have no humility whatsoever, no ability to admit you are wrong. These are not the attributes of a good investor… Yes people can choose who they listen to - and unfortunately anyone who listened to you in recent months will have sold near the lows, or not recognised the opportunity to buy at the lows. A great shame… GLA

Fairdealer, thank you again for confirming you took a heavy loss on your 2019 Marstons position. The stock was particularly vulnerable to any set back given it was carrying its peak debt load at the time, and the valuation offered no discount to book value to cushion the risk. A poor investment - demonstrating weak judgement and gullibility… You earlier stated that the shares traded “at a 200% discount to the accounts value” so - given the NAV per share is around 95p - a discount of 200% would equate to minus 95p, not the 30p you stated. This is simply a fact, and everyone here with a brain cell knows it is a fact. But thanks for confirming beyond doubt that you would rather argue against an objective fact than ever admit to being wrong.

Thank you for conceding fairbear, that you locked in a highly material loss on your Marstons holding from 2019. You have no track record here as an investor, trader, or anything else - just a big loss maker. People should take what you say with a pinch of salt, because after a loss like that, you will be suffering from serious cognitive bias ie you have baggage about Marstons… You stated that the shares traded “at a 200% discount to the accounts value” so - given the NAV per share is around 95p - a discount of 200% would equate to minus 95p, not the 30p you state. This is simply a fact - you got it wrong - put the spade down before digging your hole any deeper.

Hi SC… First, well done on your investment in Marstons. At least over the time I have posted here, you are one of very few to have called it correctly. It comes as no surprise to find out fairfealer has lost money in other shares too. He owned shares in Marstons in 2019, at the peak of their debt, failed to recognise the fragility of the book value then, and probably paid a premium to it. When the shares nose dived he sold and locked in a massive loss. He is likely one of the biggest percentage losers here, so obviously in his mind, this makes him an expert… The words novice and gullible spring to mind.

“at a 200% discount to the accounts value”… for a man who who claims to be intellectually advanced, that is a schoolboy error. Maths lessons perhaps?

Marstons is currently trading on 4.8x 2025 expected earnings, and around 0.4x tangible book. Latest results look encouraging, helped by material structural change across the industry following a multi year purge of space. Recent divestment of brewing assets have been digested and taken well by the market both in terms of known terms and valuation, with a higher than anticipated reduction in interest expense as a result. Tangible equity ratio now around 28%, and suspect as that rises into the 30’s over the next couple of years, the market will more sensibly value the earnings on an ongoing basis. Assuming a cash conversion rate of 80%, they should be able to repay circa £40m pa which seems a decent clip to me. Of course, they have no reason whatsoever to target zero debt - unrealistic and unnecessary - they are an asset backed business with fairly predictable op cash flow in a normalised state, and that lends itself to debt based lending. One more thing to note, the £6m repair payment going to pensions ends this year which provides an additional and welcome boost to cash conversion. I purchased between 27p-34p and very happy I did. My sense with much of the inertial negativity here is there are a lot of burnt fingers and baggage being carried, and a lot of ego, so be careful who you listen to. ATB

Hi fairtrader, I note again in your last post your dedication to long term investment, and commitment to research of the highest order. So when you owned Marstons shares in 2019 I know it was the result of your impeccable understanding of the fundamentals and risks involved. So I ask again, how did that investment turn out for you?

That’s right fairdealer, the share price has risen strongly because Marstons and industry peers have produced solid results, no doubt helped by a multi year industry purge that is now improving related economics. More importantly, those companies with assets - like Marstons - are finding demand for those assets and using the liquidity to reduce debt… These things were all predicted and emphasised by the bulls at the lows, but not by you and your merry band of fairbears. Result: Marstons +27% over a month, MAB just 7%…. Quick question. I know you are a very serious and important long term investor. So when you owned Marstons shares back in 2019, it will have been based on the soundest reasoning and reflection, meticulous understanding of financial detail, drawing on years of experience as self professed industry specialist and serious long term investor.. So how did that investment work out for you?

The fact is fairbear, that the market doesn’t care about your agenda, or what you think is relevant, or how many words you type, or how important you think your knowledge is. Because back on planet earth, the shares are up circa 30% over the last few weeks, and you appear entirely clueless about what you got wrong. The market has spoken - ignore it if you wish - I am simply the messenger.. :)

In fairness supercharger, the bears are trying to update the list of negatives all the time. It’s called cognitive bias. They should try to get a little knowledge of investment before applying it..

Yes fairdealer, but unfortunately it is the investors who acted on your negative posts from a few weeks ago - either by selling near the lows or by failing to purchase - who are now out of pocket. I wouldn’t call them gullible or novices, just poorer… Any thoughts on where you went wrong, or why your negativity hasn’t proven relevant? May be worth reflecting on this prior to subduing people with a further bout of dubiously relevant negativity..

There there fairdealer. The market decides what is relevant and what isn’t, and it has marked the shares up circa 30% since the disposal and update. So what has your analysis missed? I see your latest posts continue in the same vein, but the market doesn’t agree with you and it is time for you to reflect. Non exec chair buys material number of shares - another source with superior information who doesn’t agree with you... As for “confrontional” - please consider your own terminology. “Hypers”, “novice investors”, “gullibles”… Again, perhaps time for self reflection.

Hmm.. If only writing an awful lot of dubiously relevant words made one a good investor:.. In the meantime, a good investor may recognise that the non exec chairman probably knows a fair bit about the relevant state of play. Shares up nearly 30% in recent weeks, what did the bears get wrong… :)

And thank you for conceding that NOONE said immupharma is cash rich, as you previously stated. Along with many of your points, it is simply made up..

Nolupus - back in 2016-2018 many heard the same things at 20p, 50p, 100p, 180p etc… and many profited from it…. But not you.

Wow. £100k purchase. I guess the non exec chair must be novice and gullible too… :)

Nobody stated the company is cash rich, did they? The key point is they have sufficient cash to meet current needs and get to the next inflection point. Immupharma is not a big cash user, and the £1.4m inflow from the incanthera sale will likely be sufficient to fund them for at least another 12 months, even without any contribution from Lanstead. Over the next 12 months we can expect newsflow on multiple fronts. If positive, the company will likely have the option to raise funds on better terms than currently available, and at a higher and less dilutive share price. Alternatively they may enter a partnership deal with a material upfront payment that provides further funding. So nobody said the company was cash rich, nor does the company need to be cash rich, but simply that they have sufficient funding and a meaningful amount of time to reach the next inflection stage.

Yes Dallo, it is likely to be Lanstead selling… But unless you are planning to sell shares yourself, it really matters little difference. The company is no longer reliant on the Lanstead agreement for cash inflows, so the level of the share price makes little difference fundamentally. For those who wish to build a position, the lower price is good news.

Bears invariably drawing on their endless list of negatives. In the meantime, shares rising through 52 week high… ATB

Dallo - another thing to consider regarding the news silence is that - post the £1.4m inflow from the sale of incanthera shares - the company is less reliant than it was on cash from the Lanstead facility. Of course, it is still helpful money coming in, but they don’t have to be as wary about the short term share price and how this impacts the Lanstead inflows. If the company knows they are likely approaching an inflection point, they can be a bit more patient and measured about how they inform the market. IMO. Hope that makes sense and have a great weekend..