Member Info for Wigwammer

You make some good points, supermobile. As GG has stated in the past - it is the late stage and blockbuster potential of the assets that makes IMM so interesting…. 100% downside risk perhaps, but upside potential of 1000%+. And I don’t think they have to nudge the needle much to get us moving. So great risk/reward but need to invest an appropriate amount. GLA

Well done for taking a decision, GG. Some posters make a lot of noise and bluster, but are entirely incapable of committing to a decision.

With respect Dallo, an immupharma investor of 11 years may have demonstrated all kinds of attributes, and patience may or may not be one of them. Plenty of opportunity existed during the last trial to lock in substantial profit (200%+) but the investor chose to stick, perhaps hoping for 2000%. Since then, plenty of evidence existed pointing to the scale of financial and fundamental challenges facing the company, but the investor chose to stick… Perhaps a little honest self reflection would help. Fingers crossed we eventually get the news we want. ATB

Over £50m recurring FCF pa. Impressive. This is a post capex number (and presumably post interest, pre tax). At current valuation and assuming 25% tax rate, would suggest a free cash yield around 14%. So if they get there near/medium term the stock looks materially undervalued at these levels.. :)

Big volume on Friday. Second largest day in three months. Hopefully nearing the end of the Jupiter overhang.. ATB

Well. I’ve purchased quite a lot more at these levels. If it is Jupiter exiting, we must be quite a lot closer to the end now. ATB

I think interested investors should look at the MAB report, and comfort themselves that there is little difference in the disclosure at Marstons or MAB.

They may well make another announcement for the benefit of all shareholders. We don’t know yet.

“ We look forward to sharing more about the Marston's growth opportunity at our investor day next week.” There may well be an accompanying presentation and RNS associated with this. Today’s announcement was a standard trading update, but well done geemoney for trying to get to some underlying cash conversion figures. The company has debt, but far larger assets. With the shares trading around 52 week highs, it appears the market is rewarding those who put emphasis on the latter. ATB

Far more likely (and obvious) that the price pressure is caused by Jupiter exiting their position. We were informed at the end of September they had aggressively reduced from 7.8% to 4.6%, and given the illiquidity of the stock it is little surprise to see this having an impact. I suspect therefore we will sooner or later get an update showing that Jupiter have aggressively reduced again. ATB

To be honest, my patience here is not being tried much at all. I bought the shares in full knowledge that time lines in biotech can be long and uncertain. I suspect there will be an update on the trial over the next couple of months, and that fits with what I’ve suspected for the last 8 months or so. That is how long it takes to organise a trial. Also, deals do not appear until suddenly they do - just look at incanthera… If one isn’t comfortable with this sort of thing then best not invest in biotechs. IMO

Yes geemoney. They received over half a billion pounds for a business making £32m op profit just prior to Covid. So that’s 15x+ ebit and around 20x net earnings. By any stretch, a decent exit multiple. ATB

Yes. Some decent volume over the last few days. GLA :)

Tim is also Chairman of Incanthera. +350% this year. ATB

I agree GG. The valuation is key, as is the late stage nature of the assets. Any positive news and the MC could rise dramatically. Alternatively, no news and it will drift or go lower. But the assymetry of the payoffs - with the downside potential capped at 100% and the upside potential being many multiples of 100% - make this look very attractive risk/reward IMO. ATB

I suspect valuation also matters quite a lot in biotech investing, and working out probabilities (rather than objective certainties) relating to how far the science has advanced and what cash will be required. Given these points, it seems a bit silly to put words in people’s mouths, assert subjective opinion as though it is objective fact, and ignore valuation.

The repayment of debt has done two main things. 1) increased the proportion of the enterprise value owned by the shareholders rather than debt holders - hence the huge share price appreciation over the past 18 months… 2) materially reduced the discount rate applied to through cycle earnings. Even in the event of a downturn, GMS does not need to cover the same interest costs that it did before. From memory, it remained a cash generative business at the operating level even in the downturn - it was the scale of interest costs that killed it. It’s a fair bet now that with one or two more highly cash generative years ahead, the debt will be largely gone, and any consequent downturn can be faced with confidence that the business will survive. That has big implications for the quality of the earnings stream going forward, and what investors should be willing to pay for it. GLA

Dallo - no one is accusing you of being impatient. But I don’t really get your point about number of trades. There are few trades because there was no big news. One day there may be big positive news, and there will be lots of trades. So in short, we await big positive news.

Scrodingerscat - bear in mind that the incanthera assets were recently partnered, and immupharma has consequently benefited. We also got another confirmation that Avion, Simbec and the CNRS are still on board.

Worth considering - do we need another partner to get these shares up? If simbec produce a trial plan and avion fund it, the story is moving ahead anyway. GLA

Absolutely fine for you to express your feeling, goldgirl. As you have previously stated the valuation has come back a fair bit, the warrants issue has been resolved for now, and we have confirmation that op costs have fallen. No need to keep repeating yourself for the benefit of those with a poor memory. I would add we also have confirmation in the report that Avion are still patterning re P140… Investing in biotechs often requires patience. Some are good at being patient, others need to pass their impatience and regrets off onto others. Perhaps IMM will get a deal, perhaps they will not. Invest an appropriate amount. But the risk/reward looks great to me. GLA

Macq - if they get book value for the assets and it reduces net debt, it may well be a smart thing to do at this valuation. The stock currently trades a greater than 50% discount to book. ATB