Member Info for wasarunner

swest not disputing that but we can turn the question around a bit too - 'do the people with the money believe that this BOD can make them money'. Because that is in effect what they are asking themselves - do they trust the management to deliver the mine, and therefore eventually, the spoils.

In the case of the banks then we don't know yet.
In the case of Orion we know they like the BOD. They gave up $25m readily and on the interview a year or two ago with Philip Clegg was singing their praises.
In the case of Teck/Glencore I believe the former participated in a number of the early raises to get the mine proven, not sure about the latter but they certainly haven't sold up so one assumes 'content' with the management.

The best indication we have yet that 'somebody' believes in the BOD is the cornerstone agreement in principle which by all accounts is now very advanced. This is going to be crucial. Add to that the offtakes where of course any 'prepay' offtaker is again trusting the BOD to deliver a working mine.

It is all about trust and confidence. We will find out in September for sure whether enough players put their trust in our management, and that will in turn justify our own faith in their ability to deliver, all those PIs who have been invested here months/years. Not long now folks - I make it 6 weeks and counting. GLA

Thanks Luke - very interesting presentation. Was dated last year but just as appropriate now, nickel fundamentals haven't changed much. This bit caught my eye and is very interesting indeed:

"Long term forecasts point to price increase
but do not provide incentive to finance HPAL projects
=> potentially another price spike from 2023?"

So essentially saying if urgent investment isn't made into the type of nickel which can supply the expected EV curve, then there will be a shortage and a (big?) price spike could result. This seems particularly apt for vermelho but it isn't without risk HPAL so somebody ultimately will have to make that call that the risk is worth it with what is coming. Not that useful having the price spike and not have a mine ready to produce when it happens - much better would be to have Vermelho permitted and in the process of being built / finished when the price really starts to motor.

I still FWIW think most of the price forecasts are on the bearish side and ignore the fact that nickel is indeed a 'boom and bust' metal we have seen that several times in the historical data. We could so easily be over £30k/t by around 2025 if demand rises at/or above expections. Historical underinvestment is our friend here. GLA

Agree - big difference between the price needed to raise finance and the price needed to run steady state. Horizonte is comfortable at $11k/t production but would be hard to raise the capex needed at that level. We 'just' need the finance here then the company can't fail to make (us) money.

Just on nickel again that's why it is important to invest in lowest quartile miners. They will make money in any market (just less in an oversupplied market). That's another tick for Horizonte - it can compete with the cheapest (and poorest quality) nickel pig iron from Indonesia on cost.

Re: nickel that's true but finding the good stuff in sufficient grade is much harder. When I read about this (abundance of nickel in the earths crust) the sulphate tends to be deep underground and the laterites tend to be poor grades. Horizonte is lucky - good grades and surface mining (although laterite). And to get commercially viable nickel you have to spend year s and years proving it up so actually there should be a deficit going forward due to historic underinvestment. Replacement (of batteries) is a thing but probably not in the timescales we care about next 3-5 years. If you were holding into the 2030s then certainly something to think about. Of course stainless is 5% YOY growth so plenty of nickel demand side even without batteries. I'm pretty happy over the timescale I need to worry about then nickel demand will outstrip supply so it is a good investment.

Dilution - it is the big ticket item but I'm pretty happy with that one. I do believe it is why the market is (continuing to) underprice the share - due to this consideration. We should find out soon enough either way. You have to make an educated guess here as to who the players circling Horizonte are, and what the are prepared to pay. I think the SP will be higher post financing than pre financing so dilution (though expected) is not a concern for me.

Incidentally to guarantee it's $100m and a good % chunk of the company I think the cornerstone has to pay handsomely because Horizonte showed how straighforward it would have been to raise $60m in a few days at 7.5p. That's mainly why I think all this nonsense talk of 3p, 5p, even 6p raises is just that - nonsense. I do expect the raise to be above where we are now (and probably to be above 7.5p if I'm honest). To get more, you have to pay premium.

Hi Slurms I haven't but that has happened to me now with a smaller mcap company where I also hold over 1% and I participated in a raise. I think Horizonte with Glen, Teck and Orion and probably others, now have options. When I last chatted to SR about the fundraise in Feb I was told they had to guarantee the $25m and had to complete quickly so in that scenario they felt it not appropriate to go out to existing holders. Please note I don't have much experience of these raises and things so I don't know the pros and cons of 'bookbuild' vs 'public placings' etc.

For me it is a moot point as I am usually fully invested and would struggle to find new funds to invest if a placing does happen, then it is only really worth it if done at significant discount which then is counterproductive for the company. I still think we'd be higher now if the 7.5p placing hadn't been done (but I understand why it was done). Placing at discount undermines the price in the short term.

What's interesting me now is whether there are holders not buying expecting to be offered shares in the next round. I think they will be disappointed, maybe we get offered but I don't expect very much at all? The numbers don't add up to me, once you've factored debt and cornerstone and the $25m already raised there is not much left. FWIW I think the cornerstone is here FOR A BIG SLICE because they know exactly what they're getting. Others may get scraps but the cornerstone will be laughing once this deal is done. If as I suspect a big name though that's fine because we will all benefit from the additional market exposure as we go mainstream mining press.

John that's not always true. Two scenarios:
- there is always uncertainty if they will fall (it maybe 90% nailed on but what if a major makes a bid - can happen even it is a falling market). You want to be in
- the second relates to liquidity. I may think August is a week month and the news is coming in September. Should I sell my 22+m shares in August? Probably not. I can't sell, or buy back that number without significant transaction costs and probably affect the shareprice as it's currently over 1% of the company.

LTBH is still a sound strategy - always supposing you believe in the long term trajectory and don't mind the fall inbetween. It's a mistake (IMO) for an investor to need to make money every single day they are trading. The real big money has always been made over longer timescales (not disputing trading can be lucrative but the mega multiples tend to be made over years).

Thanks. Exciting! It would appear mb wants to 'maximise' the outcome - works for me!

Drive from me 2 up 2 down at one end of the county to me caravan at the other all on me own land of course. Sorry for the o/t but 300k acres seems a lot. It may be worth prospecting it for gold to get our sp up? Ha

300,000 acres - blimey. Northumberland (my home county) is around 1.3m acres and is the 5th largest county in England, so Horizonte own about 1/4 of the area. I am hoping to buy 1/4 of Northumberland once I sell up my holdings here - at £1 a share. GLA

IAmNotSpartacus was this prospecting license submitted by Armadale? Do you have a link?

1.7m tonnes is just the exploration hole then! I like it....how much more :)

Seems pointless to me to focus 'too much' on what Horizonte are thinking for Vermelho if it ends up being done in conjunction with a major. Therefore I had a quick squint at what Vale where planning:

http://www.vale.com/en/investors/information-market/press-releases/pages/a-cvrd-iniciara-o-desenvolvimento-do-niquel-do-vermelho.aspx

"Its estimated production capacity is 46,000 tons/year (tpy) of metallic nickel, and 2,800 tpy of metallic cobalt – with an expected commercial life of 40 years."

From Horizonte's plan we know there are (at least) 1.7m tonnes of viable nickel at Vermelho which at 46kt/yr is around a 37 year mine life similar to Horizonte's plan for Vermelho. Grades might get weaker as it gets mined of course.

I suppose the key takeaway is - 46kt/yr for 35-40 years at $25k/t is $1.15bn/yr. Slap on another $150m/yr for cobalt and you have $1.3bn.

So irrespective of Horizonte's plans for Vermelho (which they say they intend to develop with a partner) we have to keep focus on the price - WHO will come in for a project which over its lifetime could generate $45-$52 billion (yes billion) USD of revenue subject to the right size mine being built? I would suggest one, or other, of the worlds very largest and very blue chip miners might be interested in that kind of revenue over the next few decades. All IMHO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58241008

I like this bit:

""Our plans announced today will better enable BHP to pursue opportunities in new and existing markets and create value and returns over generations.""

Could we be an opportunity they would like to pursue! I hope so...

>>10 day highs
10 year highs of course I meant

I think I posted this a while back but looking at historical charts last time nickel was over $20k/t was around Feb 2012 (please someone correct me if I got that wrong!). That means we are very very close to '10 year high'. I think end of 2011 was around $21.5k/t - really no reason we can't hit that in the next quarter especially if LME keeps dropping. Maybe nickel will get its day in the sun once we've broken 10 day highs. That it coincides with Horizonte sorting financing is either a fluke or JM can claim to have played a very smart game to engineer it!

Yes I think jm has no interest in raising the sp because I think they have a deal that probably ignores it. Otherwise they would have tried to do more to raise it. Maybe the cornerstone announcement (ie who it is/what price) will get them where to be for the rest.

I always wondered the same thing when I loqded up at 2p. 'Why isnt everybody buying this'. We already had the npv calculator, we already had woodmac nickel forecasts, and we had c1 costs, and we could multiply 3.5m tonnes by a big number per tonne. I assumed the market was imperfect which is what I continue to assume at 6.5p.

Question is I suppose what fot ggp to the 1bn mcap area - pi or ii? My only experience was eua on the rise we saw 100k, 250k, 500k (gbp) buys going through. That isnt pi buying. We see those types of trades once every 6 months on horizonte since I invested.

Perhaps for same stage gold is just sexier than nickel is another possible explanation? We will have that here at some stage. Nickel could easily spike at some point like the one that took it to 50k/t usd back in the day.

Sj whether we like it or not future price of this share will be set by institutions. The way sr described it to me every time in the future derisk or macro events will happen they will dial some knobs and adjust their algo which will set a new price.

Today, its pi's buying and selling and not much at that. This will all change when istitutions get involved but apparently they dont like buying pre finance. So the next thing which will move the dial will be financing news.