Thanks yorkie, for me, this co adds balance to the pf as this is a (albeit delayed) producer my other investments are a couple of years off producing realistically. Yes a setback but bigger picture - the main investors here have been supportive of delays so far, no reason to assume at the moment they won't be supportive now.
I might have bought DJs shares I added £85k today. I see it as a delay and an opportunity that's all. Just need to find out how they are going to extract the gold but the pictures on twitter show they're mining. GLA
I didnt mean my post to sound negative, it wasnt meant to be. Summarise as - when I thought I had the winning lottery ticket I couldnt sell it irrespective of delays and drops in sp. It looks increasingly like that was a good decision!
It's hard not to sell it really is. When you are in loads of profit it is all cash ready to take then invariably the price stqrts dropping and you get that feeling you should have cashed out. Months pass and jeremy pushes the finance complete back a quarter or a half.
I got stuck here for the simple reason I thought I found a gem, for some reason the market didn't understand or see it, and once this was in motion I couldn't afford to sell and years later google where Horizonte went. It would have been too depressing to see 'what if I had held'. You shouldn't get sentimental about a share but the fundamentals never changed here so there was never a really good reason to sell unless the timescales didn't suit.
Not long now and I wish all holders, long termers and those just buying, the best.
Not a technicals man but I will stick my neck out and call 8p q bottom from here, and probably a min equity price for financing. If so then you have to decide if you are prepared to buy ~10% above a potential bottom. I dont see us going lower post finance complete I see us rising. Always dependent on timescales but if you are buying to hold till production and don't care too much for the 10% then buy now imo. I think market may get some scraps in any placing but nothing significant and no massive discount.
Disagree, think they will be building by end of year therefore finance will be closed well before. They are on a timeline to production here, that's what I was told at beginning of the year (there is a window to get this built and producing - not sure what the driver is there, perhaps Orion royalty or something else). Financing won't take 3 months. My sources suggest jostling for position at the table. No shortage of interest. All IMHO
I am interested in this article on different levels. I expect Horizonte shares to be worth quite a bit by then, perhaps, dare I say it, to purchase one of these beauties when they are released (though I would probably wait for the electric DBS if that ever arrives...) But the timeframe - 2025 - suits me just fine. I would expect A1+A2 to be at or around production and V1 perhaps too with a bit of luck...
Yes the speculation of course being - that RNS was coming.
I don't expect any surprises on Stage 2 now Anna Legge has confirmed the ECA is for Stage 1, it is sensible for the company to build 1 stage, prove they can do it and get the credibility of actually being a producer. I do however expect them to raise to fund Vermelho to DFS. So I'm back to the original point which I find really interesting is who will be the strategic. Exciting times!
It's more a patience thing. No news for about a week and for some reason that is far too long for some to hold their investments for....which is strange because proper money seems to be made over longer periods of time.
Anna Legge has confirmed to another investor that the ECA is for Stage 1. I was basing my post below on the original $199m capex for Stage 2 but noted this has more recently been increased to $251m. Nevertheless if the same $146m could be obtained for stage 2 that is around 3/5 th capex covered by ECA for Stage 2. I don't think another $100m is too difficult at that stage, especially when production ramps up on Stage 1. Perhaps even the strategic investor dips into their pockets at that point to accelerate the build...
Two things occurred to me when I reflected on the ECA announcement yesterday.
1. It's a lot of money. There is the outside chance that this is the ECA for 2 plants and 2 sets of mining equipment for Stage 1 and 2. Personally, I doubt it, as I think a junior like Horizonte would rather walk than run initially when building the mine and wants to get Stage 1 up and running, but there has to be a chance, however small, that they might be funding 2 stages at once if the 'strategic investor' is game.
2. If $143m is ECA for 1 stage. Assumption is stage 2 requires exactly the same plant (same amount of trucks for same amount of extra nickel, same furnace). The funding gap for Stage 2 then becomes < $60m! Which is the equivalent of 3kt nickel gross production or around 1/5 of the production capacity of stage 1!
This is huge news IMO if the second point you can finance 2/3 of stage 2 capex from ECA. Even if Horizonte don't build stage 2 until after stage 1, my bet is -> it will be immediately after.
I think there will be equity but the strategic investor is probably here for more. What 'more' is we will see, it could be offtake, ie a buyer of the product in masse or indeed an eye on Vermelho. My hope is the strategic a. isn't too bothered about equity price and is prepared to pay $, and second isn't 100% equity.
Take the banks as a given and assume some offtake so far so good. Mark my words the big news here will be, and the question we should be asking is 'who is the Strategic Investor'. In the brmed interview JM has stopped referring to them as the cornerstone. And he doesn't mention equity. Hmmmm. So what is the Strategic Investor investing and who are they? This is literally the most exciting bit of the jigsaw as far as I am concerned, in the next few weeks. My guess is a major, and not a financier, so my question is, which one?? Find out soon I guess!
One thing I hope is this board will always be available for a good discussion in time to come as surely there will be many events well worth debating. And it doesn't 'descend' into what we've seen elsewhere at times. I've been out most of the day as this week is insanely busy so I can't keep up - it is typical that news lands when you have least time to look at it. Anyway thought I'd add that 2 pence as I've really enjoyed people's perspectives here - none of us are right even remotely close to 100% of the time, it is always opinion only, but we seem to be right in saying this company is going places. Going to be a hell of a journey! For some it has been a longer wait than others, some are just joining now, but one thing is for sure, if nickel and Horizonte go anywhere like what is predicted in the next 5 years, this an excellent point to be getting in. This is the brief moment between 'it's a done deal' and 'institutions are buying'. How long to be in such a position - maybe a month, 6 weeks max? GLA
Anyone now think 5 international and 3 brazilian banks can't manage $180m USD between them? By my calcs that's less than $25m per bank! And I would imagine the banks will be looking on the fact that the ECA's have approved finance as a pretty big de-risking event for Stage B debt financing...
The big unknown for me is - is the cornerstone only taking equity, or are they providing other finance. If the cornerstone does $50m offtake and $50m equity we really don't give a monkeys what price they do the equity - they can do it at 5p. Obviously they won't do that but it really wouldn't matter at that stage. Really think anything from 2.5bn-3bn is realistic and the low end of that spectrum would be an amazing outcome for what we've got here.
Hi Billyboy I don't really because clearly it is quite a complex finance package to pull together. I would say todays news outperforms expectations and this has already provided a mini re-rate event ahead of equity. It is clear they've ditched the 'all news in one RNS' approach as they probably felt the shareprice was too low - this was my reading of the situation latterly hence it looks like the staged approach has been adopted.
We are at around 1.8bn shares today including options. I'm happy with 3bn shares total. There is a good chance we end up with less. 1bn shares at 8.5p issued is ~$140m usd which would get us to $470m usd including debt + what was raised in Feb. Offtake could reduce this further. I think they will raise more - maybe $500m total. So anything between 2.5bn-3bn shares might be possible.
As to what mcap we can achieve with 2.5bn-3bn and at what stage in the next 2 years to construction I actually don't know. My hope is we can get to around 15p post finance in the next 6 months. Really happy with that. If we sit at that number until the mine is fully built that's absolutely fine. Probably along the line we will get further upside from Vermelho anyway. I might be being too pessimistic again others on this board have suggested a higher SP is possible fully financed from the same number of shares. So we will see! GLA
My prediction (I guess I meant when equity gets announced) for the prevailing shareprice is starting to look pessimistic. I would be super happy if equity gets done 8.5-9p area as a discount to prevailing, maybe we can get to 10p now? Probably some of that will hinge on the offtake - what component that provides.
Still think the cornerstone will be a re-rate event in and of itself but of course if the cornerstone entity is announced at the same price as the equity they are buying then it won't lift the price ahead, which is of course how they want it. Very very interesting now to see how this plays out here...