RE: The EV era beckons faster than expected27 Jun 2020 13:57
placings wise I still think 7-10p for the finance equity the question then is how much is placed. 7p is really a lower bound for me, I think they will get higher, but perhaps not quite 10p. The interesting area for me is how much is equity and how much royalty/offtake. 50/50 split would be good - if 65% can be financed with debt, of the remaining.
That all assumes nothing happens with Vermelho which is still the 'wildcard' and could be played to help financing. I am assuming project level financing unless Vermelho is offered or a deal is done.
RE: The EV era beckons faster than expected27 Jun 2020 13:53
Ethio - fwiw I think we are in a slight holding pattern - 'traders' took positions in the last run to 4p (and possibly exited hoping to buy lower) and the long term PIs (count myself in that bucket) are in and waiting patiently. Traders hoping to trade the finance news are probably elsewhere and thinking they have time till news. They might be right, I don't necessarily see too much news in July and August but I expect September+October to get more interesting. The Orion news last year landed end of August. If you were trying to get a SP moving September is not a bad time to start the old Christmas run. Trump will be pumping the markets for reelection so it might all work quite well. Also nickel price is expected to improve and that might drive sentiment. GLA. FWIW I hope traders get caught offside here and we get news unexpectedly but I would say that :0)
Look even if 500k was an overestimate (I know 100% cant be infected) much worse than 50k was (and remains) possible. Wrt to our investment here of course really long term it shouldnt be an issue (at production) but this year I am sure it is messing with plans a bit. I am pretty sure the BOD and the financiers are keenly watching developments in Brazil. Gla.
5% was a guesstimate of how the national infection rate not mortality rate. Of course I expect mortality rate to be a lot lower. 500,000 deaths would be a 1% mortality rate or thereabouts if everyone got infected. I've got shielding relatives who would be toast if they got it. They didn't (yet) because they are careful. And as Westie says it can take out the odd younger fitter person sorry for your loss Westie. The point is if no precautions are taken this is a pretty bad virus.
That said it can demonstrably be managed (if we look at countries with generally women leaders, they have done pretty well!) So Bolsonaro needs to get his s**t together then we can build a mine there!
Guys 5%+ have had it and 50k+ died. Stands to reason that 500k+ deaths was very possible (even allowing for demographics etc). Lets just hope the further waves are less severe.
On another note owlo please keep posting. The brazilian situation remains key (in my mind it is why we aren't already building - I don't really think it is the finance that is holding it up, or rather if it is, it is because of the situation on the ground there.) I find your posts (and those of many others here) intetesting and balancing for perspective. Gla. Q3 is next week!
I like to think of it as Orion buying 1/4 of 2.25% of our lifetime production for $25m. 1 of 2 lines of 1 of 2 mines.
To buy 100% of our production they would have had to pay 177x as much as they paid. That would be not much change from $4.5bn or £3.5bn in real money. I've reflected on whether I would sell for that price and, after much deliberation, I decided I would :) I think it around 70x todays SP or around £2.50 a share. 'it would do'.
Teck and Glencore remaining in is very good news and it will be interesting to see what positions they take in the financing round.
Orion will no doubt be on the shareholders register as well IMO after Q3. All to play for. What we need are long term strategic IIs for long term partnership, possible takeout, and sticky hands. Get that free float down so when the news lands - BOOM.
Indeed and I didn't mean it to come across negative (it looks negative on rereading my posts).
I've benefited enormously assuming we get finance and it moves on. I've doubled my shareholding since Griffiths and JPM have been selling, and I picked up around a third of my total shares in the 1.7-1.8p region due to City Financial's misfortunes.
One investors misfortunes is another investors fortune. Generally I approve of the transfer of wealth from IIs to PIs as the game is to some extent rigged in the opposite direction. Long may it continue and GLA :)
I'd like news on how much of the last shipment will be our revenue. In my mind (at least) anything mined up to the agreement with the business partners where the debt was cancelled for the 22% should be 33% attributable but I haven't seen this confirmed anywhere.
Have to remind myself we are still priced below (eventual) dividend from Araguaia.
£100m distribution on 2.5bn shares = 4p. This is easily achievable from Araguaia 29kt/yr with nickel $16-18k after C1 costs, taxes etc. I expect both the nickel price and the production to support this by 2025 and I am very happy to wait that long. On my holding - around £880k/yr divi.
That's without Vermelho.
Makes 3.5p today very, very cheap indeed on a 5yr view.
Welcome fpn2. It is sure a great investment here but be careful with your positions/research I think it is a rare find indeed (and for aim substantially derisked by the orion investment) but in a couple of weeks you are unlikely to have been able to digest everything there is to know here. I have about 93% of my portfolio here but that took two years of research and a meeting with one of the BOD to get to with enough confidence so I cant discourage you from investing here but it always pays to research it well :-) welcome on board in any case
DJ mate even better news than forecast nickel demand is weve dropped a level and surely pubs will open in a few weeks time. I will drink to that and good luck with bost the investment and the business. I agree the investors are forward looking and given that it takes a decade or more to get a project like this from prospect to production we or our product will be in big demand in years to come! It will be interesting to see which one :-)