Member Info for wasarunner

The debt was coming from banks though not Posco.

• As announced previously, Black Rock has secured the key approvals for the US$113m

Term Loan for Mahenge, which, subject to documentation, is expected to comprise:

– US$59.6m from The Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA); and

– US$53.4m from the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa (IDC)

that doesn't look convertable to me. However the last $40m I forgot was overrun/working capital:

• Black Rock has also secured the key approvals for US$40m in additional debt facilities

from Tanzanian lender CRDB Bank (CRDB). Subject to documentation, the ancillary debt

facilities are expected to comprise:

– US$20m Working Capital Facility; and

– US$20m Cost Overrun Facility

So I guess they do need to raise a fair bit more (even thought the debt total there is $150m it can't be used for the build cost if it's overrun/working capital). In which case if you assume build cost is circa $200m USD they do need to find another $90m. I guess $30m or so of that could come from Posco. Capped at 20% if they raised $90m that would be around $18m USD. I guess they might raise more. It's going to be a hell of a capraise if it's going to be 50% debt/50% equity (or thereabouts).

I might have missed some other financing though it's been a very drawn out process.

'capped at' obviously means they could contribute less than $31m. So it sounds like they are underwriting 1/5th of the raise. But then I don't understand why they announce a figure (here $40m USD). Is that meant to drum up enthusiasm from other investors for the final raise? That 'we could raise $150m if we wanted to'.

Does anybody understand this bit:

"Tranche 1: A$9.0m investment in 155.3m shares at a price of A5.8c, a 10% premium

to the 10 day volume weighted average price, increasing POSCO’s stake in Black

Rock from 10.1% to 19.99%

– Tranche 2: The balance of POSCO’s US$40m investment will be at the same price

as other investors in the final equity raising to build Module 1 on the Final

Investment Decision (FID), capped at a maximum stake in Black Rock of 19.99%"

So the way it reads to me Posco have to stay under 20% as a result of the final raise and will contribute $31m to the final raise. The only way they can do that (given that they are already at 19.9%) is if the total final raise is 5x$31m. But that doesn't make sense it would be a $155m USD raise?

Also I did notice tranche 1 is in AUD with the balance in USD. I don't understand it. I can't see them raising $150m USD in equity to build the mine. The current mcap is ~$60m AUD.

Yeah I forgot that in my list of reasons AIMcos don't succeed. MDs always spin the positive line. Happened in 100% of AIMcos I invested in. That's not news. Maybe MB thought it would be imminent maybe he didn't it doesn't matter, it wasn't. John De Vries also said imminent (he works for Blackrock). And persuaded a Korean outfit to part with $40m.

>> You have a company on the brink of collapse

Yes we know but why does this concern you? You're not invested. All you're managing to achieve is to panic leathal, who clearly had no idea what he was investing in. Why is it likely to fail? Well any number of a shedload of reasons which make it a speculative investment in the first place:

- 9/10 junior companies probably fail (or get taken out for some fraction of what investors thought they'd receive for it)

- this one's in Africa

- not much road/power/rail

- we hope Posco or the Chinese will come for it and do a deal with the Tanz govt but it seems to have taken half a decade so what are the chances

- cash position can't be great because it wasn't great at last announcement and what funds got raised may have been spent opening shafts in silver mines

But back to the original question - why do you care? Surely you don't? And nobody still invested does because it's worth 1/10th what we all paid for it so for the last 1/10th it's worth hanging around to see if the Chinese or Posco come for it. Everyone else including whoever muggins bought 1.1m yesterday morning then sold 1.1m yesterday afternoon at £300 loss who wanted to exit has already excited. What you have left are sophisticated investors who placed a risk weighted bet on a highly speculative investment (I jest, of course). And were not persuaded to do so by some punter they met down the pub. GLA

Https://news.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20240903050667

"The event was attended by Korea’s Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo, Australia's Resources Minister Madeleine King, Posco Group Chairman Chang In-wha, Posco International CEO Lee Kye-in and Kim Jun-hyung, head of Posco Holdings’ secondary battery materials department."

It reads very well, South Korea's Trade Minister and Australia's Resources minister in attendance. Would have been really nice to have some counterpart from Tanzania (who lets face it have as much to gain respectively as Aus/Korea from a good deal to develop the graphite mines) but I guess you can't have everything! This does seem very significant, it's the largest tranche of investment to date by Posco and from my earlier post I do think it just about rounds off the funding (though that's subject to terms, i.e. how much of this is payable when - some is clearly equity to take their stake to 20%, some offtake I guess).

>>could be ripe for a sale to black rock.

or Posco. Similar terms - they take a good % chunk of equity and buy all the graphite which is essentially what they're doing with Blackrock. Posco's target for graphite was enormous I can't remember the figures. They have to get it from somewhere. It would be very lucrative for ACP shareholders if Posco came in for a chunk of equity (obviously and preferably not at current price or they'd be buying the whole co) and that secured the debt. But lets walk before we can run I still say we need to see Blackrock actually building for there to be material progression here.

The asset was never in doubt IMO (the IRR is huge compared to almost any commodity including gold). What was in doubt was could it be realised in Tanzania. That's been the gamble all along. If Posco/Blackrock (and lets face it, it will be Posco driving this forward) can show it can be done, then anything is possible. Our build cost is much lower thank Blackrock so if they can get funding, funding is nailed on for ACP I think. Same material smaller mine.

As I say cautiously optimistic but we really need to see the nuts and bolts of the latest BKT-Posco deal and what it means for progression. Like everyone I'm jaded in that it has taken years longer than anyone wanted to get this far but I do think once Blackrock are actualy building their mine, the landscape changes, materially for ACP (as will the shareprice I expect).

...or why would Posco put in $40m (not really beer money even for them) if there wasn't a clear path ahead. I see this is great news BTW once we see the detail. Game on. Hope everybody was loading up at the 0.3p area (I was, albeit with meagre funds)

I had thought this was already in the pipeline but is it a brand new announcement? Scrolling back through the asx announcement I can't see it already announced so assume it's new. This was circa the gap I think between the debt and the build cost. Does that mean they have full funding? I guess we find out soon. From memory $150m contingent funding was raised through debt and the total build cost was around the $200m mark.

If they're fully funded lets hope Posco have helped get the Tanz govt to see sense and come up with a framework which works for miners. I do blieve this has been the obstacle and as we have seen Blackrock have progressed way slower than they had hoped/announced.

@GoldInvestor same to you mate. Signing off now what will be will be, it's down to the company to deliver and what anybody says on this board won't make a jot of difference (except perhaps to sentiment). It's never been my game to try and sway people I just say it how I see it, and I've been wrong many times, perhaps more wrong than most who knows. Anyone who claims to call it 100% it talking s***e because nobody calls it 100%. Hopefully this is the one I thought would fail which then succeeds and I got it wrong, that would work out well for holders then. More often I've thought companies would succeed and then they failed. It's possible to be wrong in both directions though.

Funny that because 3 years ago the company was hoping to get to 50koz.

Then:

sp was 10p

debt was close to nil

Now:

sp is 1.2p

debt is $11m + the rest we don't know about since March

So is it going to fund the dream of 50koz? Well the obvious answer, given the last two raises were at 1p, is through equity funding at 1p!

What changed in the 3 years? Not so much. Apparently there's a gold room. Debt ballooned. Production is still nowhere near even the midterm goal of 1koz/month.

As for institutions which ones? Why can't we know the identity of the last £630k? And the current £600k? Are they the same people? Is it the same money (recycled?) We don't know any of these facts we just know we have no production figures, no accurate debt figures, only heady targets and a vacuum of actual facts.

It's not beyond the realms that this becomes a (profitable) mine, I just happen to think it won't be publicly listed and PIs won't benefit. But each to their own I guess and lets hope if works for investors.

HI mate most of what you say is true and I agree with it's somehow how you say it but I bear you no ill. You live you learn. Money doesn't make you happy (but you need enough of it to not be unhappy). I've got that thankfully. I know a lot of wealthier people than me who are a lot less happy. Yes on the whole AIM doesn't reward, certainly not the long term investor, those in the know or the nimble traders probably eke a profit. Goldstone has been a disaster and I don't think everything has been honestly done here, from the production estimates (want your shareprice high? Just get your analyst to estimate 50koz production) to the reasons for non production 'stuck in the pads', 'couple of guys on a scooter sold some' then the suspension and boardroom shenanigans. No it's not going to end well and it's much easier just being out of it. I was surprised it went back to 2p, it obviously made it easy to do another 1p placing. Amazing what publishing a picture of a gold bar can do to people. Feer and greed ever was it thus. Anyways I hope by some miracle it makes it and people who hung in there keep their shirts but if I was a betting man, I would (and did) sell.

Djryan's back and in form :) Definitely time to leave again! No I'm not in at all here and I've said all the reasons. I hope the F type is going well. GLA

Yes I agree there is a chance this works (I couldn't take that bet for personal reasons, I couldn't take another 0) and I hope it does. I can't see it happening without more cash but that could be on 'acceptable' terms to shareholders if it results in survival - but 10p is firmly in the distant past and probably a lot of investors have quite high averages here. As a punt for new investors at the 1-2p level of course, why not. If it works it'll be some multiple.

I think it needs the main shareholders/stakeholders to be aligned and that's where I'm very uneasy. I don't know what's going on (and never will) but if one or more of those parties have their 'eyes on the prize' (the prize being total ownership) then Emma has her work cutout because from this cash position she needs at least the majority aligned with supporting the co financially. The loss of the £1.2m additional funding was a big red flag personally. Anyways good luck guys I hope it works for you I did believe in it for a long time and I initially invested because of the very modest debt but sometimes you just need cash to make it all work. Covid didn't help, for sure.

Unless you are a fly on the wall you have no window into the boardroom landscape so you don't know. BlueGold have the convertable loan. AIMS have the gold loan. Paracle have a big shareholding. Nbuku or whatever it's called have a director on the board. They clearly aren't all best mates because Bill left or was pushed, a lot of money was promised and then not delivered. For me none of it adds up to success. But the thing about these companies is they can only spin it so long, sooner or later cash will call. Best case I see is another raise. If it's higher than the last one, it might survive. If it's much lower then its the typical death spiral. I think BlueGold put in at 2.something and have the convertable at 4p? They can't convert at this sp. So it's due as debt. It obv isn't over till somebody sings it's just my view that sing they will - and it sucks - and I did lose a lot here. But good luck to those who remain I hope it works out and I hope Emma is genuine and if there is an internal bunfight she wins.

Oh and I could be wrong of course. Which is why I keep an eye - did I call the sell right? For sure this is a bounce but is it a dead cat bounce, you never know? In any case I won't be reinvesting but will watch and see. I don't think anybody can say this has been a good investment to date, certainly on any kind of medium to long scale (short term trading aside)

Yeah I sold. I just don't buy it unfortunately. $11m debt, raise barely enough to scratch the surface of the interest then 'expand' the mine what with? There was not enough gold being mined to cover running cost let alone the huge convertible loan falling due this autumn or the gold loan.

IMO this goes private and I do feel pi's are being rinsed one last time but hey if you can make money trading it that's a thing. I don't see a path as a listed company - the debt vs equity ratio here is completely off the scale. notice AIMS came in with just enough to keep the lights on and now own 30%. I happen to think the company is insolvent and surprised it relisted and I could exit.

BTW I don't want it to fail and I don't want anybody to lose money. If you're in good luck to you and I hope it works (meant genuinely). GLA

>>And now he is in holiday mode again.

In SA and Tanz as I understand it. Odd coincidence he holidays in the locations where our 2 principal projects are HQ'd but wtfdik.

I'll vote for delisting from lse if we can also delist from lse boards :-)