Member Info for wasarunner

Reality is you, I, thr market has no clue about whether its solvent because aim is not transparent. You seen the accounts how do they read? And, how were thry produced? Will the auditor resign this year? It's literally why I don't trust what this or any company on aim and have essentially sold/lost all my holdings. The grass is really green next month washes for a few years then the cokpany goes to 0 overnight whoch, I fear, is what the sp is likely to be telling you here right now.

Even if they published accounts I wouldn't believe thrm. I tried to contact the nomad (that most important financial oversight) during the suspension and got nothing. The nomad are paid by the company. Enough said....

Ehat's going on right now makes perfect sense if you spin it around the other way. Creditors are paid in shares. Debt holders can't wait to convert to shares and sell. Management get paid in shares because the company can't pay thrm in cash. In accounting terms it has a name, insolvent. And when that happens the secured creditor(s) take it. In this case probably at the point where it would ha e turned the corner. All imho....

What I learned (as a former investor here) is PIs focus on the potential/upside while ignoring the downside risk. I am/was as guilty of this as most. I bought into a low debt goldie on the verge of turning producer with fcast earns/production that made it a super investment.

The reality is different and the shareprice sadly tells the story. There is 1 secured creditor here. Which is also now the largest shareholder. Anyone looking at the company not worried about that should be. Why did bluegold convert the cln above price? Hmmm? Because they would get nothing read zero, nada, id they held on. It's (probably) not pi selling that's dropping the price it's 'those in the know'. The selling happens before the bad news comes out.

I sold when it re-listed because I thought grl was insolvent and would eventually go private. Not much that happened since has convinced me othereise and the cln converting, for me, sealed it. Convert a risk off debt at 14% interest at loss? You're not going to get it paid back. All imho and for existing holders I hope I'm wrong....

Genuinely I think there are 3 problems at goldstone (IMHO only):

1. debt. That's only manageable if you get revenue. The CLN was debt to finance operations. So was the rollover interest in the gold loan. To date, since I first invested, debt has gone one way and one way only. Up. And it's now very big in proportion to even the profit on production. Sure if they can mine 1000oz per month and somehow make 1/3 or something as profit but.....

2. revenue. Not achieved breakeven yet as far as we know on opex vs revenue. We have some finger in the air estimates on what recovery rates you can expect and how that compares to the costs of producing it but literally until you have demonstrable repeatable revenue you don't know it can make money. Which is a real big problem with 1. above and......

3. lastly but not leastly, is the BOD aligned? Probably not. I've heard it said here and elswhere that BT and Emma didn't get on. WHat about everybody else? Angela? AIMS? You don't know. These are shark infested waters and make no mistake none of these people are working for PIs. Any opportunity one has to take the spoils they can and probably will do so. We've had 'institutional' investment this year yes of course from which institutions? It wasn't Morgan Stanley I'm pretty sure. So as a PI you don't understand the dynamics of the corporate setup except that the big guys own most of it and possibly/probably don't get on.

I don't know but something is going to give IMO. Company needs to find more money and where from. The financing siutation out there is dire. Why wouldn't the secured creditor take it in exchange for the debt? Probably at the point it starts to make money. All IMHO and I hope for the sakes of all actually invested I'm wrong. But it's worth putting the counter theory anyway even if you dismiss it because these are the real risks with these investments.

The problem is not the convertible note per say (nothing about it should come as a surprise, it has been there best part of 2 years, the latest negotiated expiry was known to be November, and with the production figures not a cat in hells chance GRL would pay it and also, not a cat in hells chance they would convert at the option price). So this moment has been in the reckoning a long time. What option does the lender have - none - it's unsecured. Roll it over and get on with it. Interest continues to accrue. You'd assume that if a. they could convert at 1p (no regulatory reason why not) and b. they thought 1p was a good price, they'd negotiate that. That they aren't doing that (yet at least) to me implies either they don't think 1p is a good price (their initial equity was 2p IIRC) or, they can't, due to it taking them over some threshold or something. Because it's the obvious way out of the situation for all parties. Management were happy to save the company at diluting at 1p. I guess AIMS might not want dilution at 1p at that amount if they are the senior (secured) creditor.

The bigger concern IMHO is the wider debt situation. There's no guidance on what that number is but it'll be a lot more than $11m USD last published. How many creditors are owed what money contractors and the like? It's a big a mess and only producing at well above cost has any chance of getting out of the hole but relative to production numbers the debt is enormous. Yes if they hit the stated numbers (which they never have historically) it has a chance of survival but its a big if.

So what somebody sold 2m. I sold 5.5m the day it relisted because I don't think equity will survive, at least, I think only AIMS or some other key player will do so. But I could be wrong.

Hi Bailmaster I've requested one (well several as it happens), I'm with ii. I transferred shares out of my SIPP into trading account (in effect) before the de-list to facilitate that. I don't know if other brokers do this automatically or if you have to request it. ii's fee was £42/account I'm taking certificate from. I did think it might be more complicated in the SIPP ie I might be stuck with the shares there which is why I bought my SIPP out.

I've not had this situation before so I don't really know what happens after that but at that point I'll own ACP shares in certificate form.

From Blackrocks site:

Tier 1 scale with the second largest graphite reserve globally

First quartile costs due to hydro-dominated grid power

Higher revenue per tonne due to more large flake and higher purity than peers

Backed by largest ex-China anode producer POSCO

Great. Fantastic guys well done. So why aren't you building it? What's the hold up?

Where I disagree on MB is sure, at some point he realised Tanzania wasn't going to play ball. Remember too they can see what Blackrock are up to. What should he do? Announce it to the market? Then your shares go to 0. Hang on a bit wait to see if Tanzania changes? Well it's what I would do - then the naysayers (we call them Hunts) will say he does it to hold his salary. That may be, but he also has a significant stake in his own company, something a lot of AIM companies don't, and it's why MDs come and go with no consequence to shareholders. So I rather he gave it a decent shot and tried to wait the Tanzanian government out (that didn't work) and the bigger player to try to force the issue.

We will all have a different opinion on whether it should have been announced sooner (remember the value of the graphite project got written down on the balance sheet this year) but the fact remains - as soon as he announces any reservation about whether the project is going to happen the sp goes to 0. In fact, well ahead of that moment because he has to tell the nomad first and then you and I will know a long time after the Hunts.

All IMHO and anyway good luck in your future ventures be they property or BTC or whatever. For my part I'll keep watching what BKT are up to and whether they get anywhere. Because if they don't, ACP sure as hell won't either.

Yeah I don't think you're a bad guy and I think you're genuine (if naive about how hard this is - not just investing but small caps etc) and I even understand if the way Dee comes across gets at you and of course, people are emotional nobody likes loosing money. Just on the board its a lot of emotion. It sucks - Matt tried something, another project which could progress, actually doesn't need that much money (Hunt's wrong there) but the market/existing investors didn't buy it and the city boys whoever they are smelt blood and the last investors bailed. SP tanked then you can't raise money. Mark my words it'll happen all across AIM and is already happening already, whether your project is any good, or not. Don't know anything about it but HUM was the latest I caught site of a previously popular stock I think with PIs. And I'm as near to 99% as I can GRL is soon but plenty of 'city' types pumping it there. For my part never touching an AIM share again but that's just my lesson learnt. It became obvious to me when even BNP Paribas could get it wrong, that I'm not going to win.

Dude you really need to chill out. We all lost money (Dee probably included) because AIM sucks, junior mining sucks, nobody tells you how hard it is to raise money then deliver projects. I got screwed on Horizonte, Goldstone, here. So did blackrock shareholders. And probably half a dozen of your other picks I know nothing about. Until you can point out the success stories and what made them different, and you can identify that on a repeatable basis (which is almost certainly impossible) then you, and I, and Dee, will continue to lose money anyway. Which is why 'serious' investors don't touch AIM which makes these people like Hunt (euphamism surely) dangerous because they know things on the inside but are clearly not investing. They're on the other side and you need to worry about them, not Dee. Dee just (like the rest of us) calls them wrong.

I invested in Armadale (against my better judgement because I didn't/don't and still don't) trust Africa because a dear friend now no longer with us told me Tanzania was a good jurisdiction. It turns out that's not the case. At all. I have that from numerous sources now and in case it isn't obvious it is self evident because the largest non China based developer can't get a foot in. The fact we, as small fry, try to pick the winners and fail is just collateral damage when the big guys can't make it happen. I had the same on Horizonte much more sophisticated investors lost a lot more money than I did. To the tunes of hundreds of millions of USD. Including banks.

Sure if it makes you happy keep blaming Dee or MB, or any one of the rest of us but at least you admit the game sucks and you're no good at it. I'm not disagreeing with you and I'm not good at it either. GLA

Hi rabbi, impossible to say whether sell or hold is the right option its all personal circumstances driven. There's obviously high uncertainty in a private company and clearly it will need cash as £66k per the last statement doesn't get a lot of mine built and so funding but on what terms and what does that do to existing investors (who remain in the private co).

I'm pretty sure if you sell while its listed it can be written down as capital loss (on the loss) but not sure if that holds if it goes private (or indeed how you'd end up selling the shares in that scenario). If the shares become illiquid you may end in a situation where you'd like the capital loss to offset something but can't sell - that's why all these things are personal circumstances driven. Liquidity seems to have been pretty good in the last week or two a lot of shares changing hands.

I don't have capital gains to offset (I haven't seen a capital gain now on AIM since about 2020-21 :-) ) so almost pointless selling, so that's why I'm not selling but that's about it. Others are right highly uncertain times ahead (which makes the buying seem odd but WDIK). Good luck whatever your decision and yeah it sucks - the current mess - good luck with whatever you decide.

For ref and I've said it before, my view is the asset is great, the BOD were genuine at least at the point where they thought the mine could get developed, now maybe things are different and the best indicator of that is that the larger miner has been unable to progress despite substantial backing from a major industry player. I do think the lions share of the blame for the debarcle is with the Tanz govt but that's what makes junior mining investing really difficult so many factors out of your control. If we all had our time again we would all have put our money elsewhere for sure.

Just a technicality but an important one - sometimes when a company 'goes private' as I have seen on some AIM stocks there's a buyout but investors receive 0. That's because the company had debts/was insolvent whatever. and a creditor or a.n.other takes it. This company has no debts and is not insolvent it just can't keep going on AIM any more and raising money and paying fees - that's pretty obvious since the last raise as the price went down, rather than up, on a good opportunity. What would the next raise price be?

But if a company is bought out at 0 value for shareholders that's when your shares are worthless. if the company is solvent and goes private, then you still have your shares.

If we were insolvent I would have sold. On HZM I didn't think it would go insolvent (but did) and didn't sell till way too late. My other main stock I held I believe will eventually go the way of HZM hence sold. Here I don't know what will happen but my shares are not worth a % I would care recover so may as well hold.

I did see this coming if the market didn't buy the silver deal. That's the chances you take and the prices you pay.

Agree it's odd (and no idea who's buying). But on delist your shares aren't worthless you own them in a private company that's all. They might then become worthless but it depends what happens in the private company. The private company still has the licence to Mahenge and whatever the current stake in the silver mine is. I'm holding (neither buying nor selling).

If it's new buyers buying then they're taking a punt the private company will do well. If its existing holders then they're averaging down taking a punt the private company will do well. If it's traders they're taking a punt they can get a profit before delist. Other than that I don't know who else it could be. But overall since the first announcement there must have been more buying than selling as generally the price has risen, albeit from a low level

No. Blackrock have a JV partner, indeed the largest graphite trader outside of China. Offtake+equity. And yet still haven't built their mine and indeed, haven't gone to final investment decision despite years of 'it's soon'. The problem is a lot simpler and lies with Tanzania, IMHO. You can have all the JV partners in the world lined up but if the country doesn't play ball, there's no ballgame to be played.

Blackrock for comparison were going to generate from up to 4 stages each stage generating roughly the combined output from Armadale's 2 stages. So as a total project size Blackrock was 4x Armadale (I'm not sure about their LOM). So to the total Tanzanian economy literally $100ms of USD revenues. So I wish they'd hurry up and sign it off.

"Definitive Feasibility Study

In June 2020, Armadale completed an updated Definitive Feasibility Study that reaffirmed Mahenge as a long-life low-cost graphite project with a US$430m NPV and IRR of 91% based on a two-stage expansion strategy to facilitate near term production comprising:

Stage One – processing plant and infrastructure at a nominal design basis rate of 0.4-0.5 Mt/pa to produce 60,000t/pa graphite concentrate in the first three years of production

Stage Two – a second 0.5 Mt/y plant and associated additional infrastructure doubling throughput to 1 Mt/y from Year 4 of operation to increase production to a life of mine average of 109,000t/pa"

The DFS was based on mining only 0.25x of the total contained resource, concentrating on the higher grade stuff to produce a ridiculously good IRR. There is more graphite there than can be reasonably mined out, probably several million tonnes of concentrate. The main question is - will any of it ever be mined.

That's what's really frustrating about this project (and Blackrocks), if it went ahead, all parties would massively benefit, the buyer (Posco), the government and local economy, and the mining companies. That they aren't already mining is really frustrating and if Blackrock would close finance (they haven't, yet) then it would indicate that there is appetite for funding the projects.

There is $bn in value in Armadale's resource.

And if you feel duped by MB consider this -> there is a 'regulated' (I use the term loosely) agent of that 'highly effective' (again, loosely) body the FCA which is PAID to avoid that happening - namely, the NOMAD. Are they part of the problem? I would suggest they ARE the problem, certainly on other investments I've held (re: GRL) where you as the shareholder have 0 protection yet the nomad walks away with their fee for 'regulating' the said company you invested in.

Anyone contacted the ACP nomad yet? What's their take on it?

Incidentally that's universal - it was ok for Horizonte to issue an 'everything is fine' RNS then 1 month later 'it's gone to the dogs' RNS. These people get paid a lot, for doing, not a lot (read, nothing).

And by market I mean, AIM, brokers, fees, trading platforms the lot. Its designed so the intermediary wins, the punter loses, as often does the company. AIM is the house and the house wins.

Well the raise was at or around market. And always has been here. Other aimcos raise at 60% discount (that's what happened at GRL). Sure, it didn't work out here, but he tried and had enough support to get the initial funds it needed +/-. Then when the silver project didn't get 'bought' by the market the sp tanked and we are where we are it can't continue without further funding and Matt (correctly IMO) determined that it has a better chance privately than the alternative, which is now a raise at what, 0.02p? Would be a total wipeout for shareholders (who can't put in and that includes me).

It sucks but we've all got our big boy pants on and all knew the risks when we invested so time to get the vote through and see how what plaafter that.

Something is bent, where RHT and I disagree is he believes it's MB, I believe its the market. I've been moving holdings (trying to rescue the sipp) and sells at .0475 and buys at .0674. Where's the crookery - right there. GLA

It's a leadzincpot mine not a tinpot mine, technically

The question with Blackrock is, have they. Have they achieved more. They've certainly spent a lot more money, they spend roughly our mcap every quarter I think. Yet the amount of graphite they are mining right now is equivalent to the amount of graphite we are mining. So what would you prefer, a few $10m's cash spent with no working mine, or whatever we've spent with no working mine. It's why I urge caution with Blackrocks announcements, they're real when they're building the mine. Until they're building the mine they're in roughly the position that ACP is in (albeit with backers with deeper pockets). And they've said they are close to building the mine many, many times before.