Member Info for wasarunner

Just to reinforce my point, we have a sell at 8.25am 600k shares at 0.127.

9.57 an hour and a half later, we have a buy, 1.2m shares, at 0.2345.

There are not outsized trades, £700 and £3k respectively. That's a 50% (or 100% depending on how you look at it) spread.

It's a completely illiquid disfunctional market. You're not going to attract buyers with or without news.

Not going to report him but also don't agree with him but it takes all sides. If you want to see an insolvent company have a look at GRL. Last time they reported position $11m USD debt and that was 6 months ago, since then accrued further debt (opex + accrued interest), produced not much gold, and it's a 'producer' and people are ramping it from the rafters. But it's still insolvent.

So to the question - are insolvent companies allowed to trade on AIM? Yes. Is ACP one of them? Not yet. But how we're going to raise finance from this level to progress anything - well IMO only it's not going to go well on AIM. Apart from anything else look at the spread! Even if I wanted to buy, I wouldn't. You already took a 40% loss when you bought, if you ever need to sell. AIMs done - on this leathal and I are agreed. Only zombie companies will exist on it in the future with their brokers and their fees and they can rinse whatever small number of PIs or traders are left in the pool. All IMHO and I could be 100% wrong (but I don't think I am on GRL at least).

I can't post this website doesn't work on my phone. Full of spam and ads. Anyway you get my gist, 2020 everyone pumped everything, some of us were genuinenly trying to invest for the future, in my case the electrification of the world, which will happen anyway, with or without hzm and acp. High risk yes. Some companies will make it many will fail. Countries fail too. They have bad governments which make bad policy decisions. In some respects thats as true of tanz as it is of the uk. In the case of the uk why aren't we all nuclear already. And in the case of tanz why aren't we mining graphite already. All imho

In 2020 you could invest in a thing called bucketofs***tecoin and make money. Only invest isn't the right word. And yes lots of people pumped lots of things. Personally, and I could be 100% wrong (and pro

>>Wasa, what’s you’re feeling on either project actually getting built?

Hard to call it, but I'm in and in deep so to some extent I'm riding whatever the outcome is. Blackrock making the right noises is good news but until concrete is pouring that's all it is - noise. We were never going to build it first, ever, and I knew that when I invested. That it has taken so long indicates a problem, personally, I don't think it's one of ACP's making. I think the ball is in the Tanz gov court to make this all happen and, well, they haven't (yet). I'm told by third party sources unrelated to ACP that there are hotels in the respective regions built ready to receive all the expats who are going to work / run these mines. They're empty. That's not good for Tanz right?

Which is why the silver project is a lifeline. It offers nearterm progress for ACP while Tanz/BKT get their collective a**es into gear. That the market doesn't buy the silver mine is a problem but (and IMHO only) that indicates a problem with AIM, not a problem with ACP. This is a mine that for very low capex could produce silver which is trading at multi year highs. In short time. And the buy ini price is pretty good - i.e. for what needs to be spent for the stake in the project it would see a really good return. That we clearly can't use equity to finance it is a problem. So Matt's got to earn his money and come up with another solution.

Those are my thoughts only. It's all risky, and as RHT points out currently priced to fail. Whether it does or not time will tell. But we all knew this didn't we investing in a pre production mine in an as yet undeveloped region in Africa?

I can't put a % on it or a timeframe. I don't think we'll go bust (in the near term). But it's much easier to fail than succeed and many companies have failed so it remains a possibility. But talking your holding down while holding is madness. As soon as I didn't believe in my stocks I sold them. Yes I commented on those boards when people asked my opinion but I'm not bitter, it was my decision to buy (and sell) and that's just how it is. If you believed Matt Bull before but now don't but you don't know him from Adam then more fool you, is my opinion. GLA

I'm not Haffy but 4 reasons, at least:

1. Their capex has gone up from original estimates. By a lot. (doubled even maybe?)

2. Dilution to date. You'd have to go back through the announcements but funding all that management overhead for all those years costs money

3. Expected dilution. Still equity to complete the funding i.e. they don't know how many shares will be in issue at production

and lastly, but absolutely not leastly:

4. When will it be mining graphite? Their shareprice is low for a similar reason to ours. There's no clear indication of when they'll be mining graphite. Every year you announce a date, then miss it by another year, then by another year, your original investors get jaded and other investors don't buy the shares.

What turns that all round is an actual line in the sand, say, funding completed and first concrete poured. Then you'll see the price rise. Until then the market doesn't buy it. All IMHO. Because their project (like ours) is a great project, but only once it gets built and producing. In the meantime the shareprice reflects the probability of that happening (or not).

>>Thats all very well Wasa , if that was the case why did MB shift his attention away from Mahenge to some tin pot Silver mine!?

Because Blackrock were taking forever (and still are). They were already building their mine in 2020, and 2022 and 2024 and now it's 2026. So you can wait forever or sping up another project while you're waiting. And the silver project is ready to mine, you can pick the stuff up by hand stick it on a truck and have it processed. That's the theory, I believe.

>>Jsd, and how does that help ACP in any shape or form?

(bangs head against wall. repeatedly). Surely it's obvious. The whole world sees that the worlds biggest graphite trader has managed to persuade the Tanzanian government to come up with 'the goods' - tax laws, agreements on power, agreeents on transport, to the 'up and coming' graphite region of Tanzania. Sufficient to build a $200m USD mine to produce high quality graphite in this part of Africa.

How can this possibly benefit another listed company, with another potential graphite mine, 6 miles down the road. Why would any potential buyer of the graphite, essentially the same graphite as Blackrock are producing, be willing to finance ACP's mine. Possibly even the same buyer as Blackrock have secured.

Really it's not rocket science but the bigger picture appears really not to be your strong suit leathal!

I didn't mean ACP (the company, I hope it makes it, I hope blackrock makes it, I hope the silver project is successful and the graphite) I mean AIM market generally. 20% margin on buy sell, fees, no liquidity, no investors etc. This is my last holding (listed on AIM) and when it goes wherever it goes I won't invest in AIM! It's clearly not a good place to race funds through because the last three companies I invested in didn't raise funds through the market directly, they raised from PE or 'people known to the company' (including in this particular case, me). So the idea that you can fund mine development through AIM is a nonsense I think. But we will see!

O/T my mother was chronically ill for 10 years and passed this year. Science kept her alive and part of my family. She was at huge risk from Covid, she survived it. I got Covid twice and I'm still here. I also lived with a landlady who was a nurse through Covid, in the first wave. They were carrying out bodies daily.

So if your question is - were we all going to die then the answer is, no, of course not. If your question is, did science help us, then the answer is, yes it did and continues to do so. But as ever you simplify the arguments to black and white when the world is every shade of grey. It's why you don't understand the signifcance of Blackrock (or not) or Posco (or not) to the ACP investment case. And this is why AIM is a junkyard, because the investors are predominantly traders (the p&d crew you talk about) and people without any clue who get fleeced. Whatever happens to ACP we're better off it in the long run. AIM is no place for investors IMHO.

Who are the mysterious p&d crew of which you speak? I haven't seen anyone big up this share in at least the last 2 years! And the shareprice tells its own story.

with respect to graphite, Blackrock must be lying in their latest presentation where they illustrate that large flake graphite prices are high (and their basket is 80% large flake). And Posco must think graphite isn't the future to invest $40m in their operation.

Literally nothing you make makes sense. You're clearly also don't believe in climate change. You understand it's one of the easiest scientific thing to measure right? Much easier than, for example, getting a spaceship into orbit, or allow 5g to communicate seamlessly by video link from the middle of my field to Australia, or transplant a liver. Yet mankind has achieved all these things yet taking some centuries old core samples from some glaciers and reading their values is made up? Again, doesn't make sense. But WTFDIK.

And in Tanzanian press.

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/business/tanzania-s-mahenge-graphite-project-secures-179-million-financing-boost-4764890

>>so you focus on news from another companies progress

When the other company is:

- geographically located a few miles from our mine site and

- the largest commodity trader in said commodity in the world ex China and

- commits $40m then

yeah, I focus on that news. Because it's relevant (or at least, could be). Jesus. You got this investing game yet? It's not all about 1 company. There has to be demand for the product. There has to be a way of getting the product out of the country. There has to be govt agreement for the product. THere needs to be an investor putting up the money to build the mine to mine the product.

But if you prefer 'blah blah matt bull blah blah tin pot outfit blah blah' then we can listen to that all day long too. Be my guest.

I comment on news. Todays news wasn't really much news. Last week we had news (you know, state delegates meeting, publications in the financial press in Korea, $40m committed funding - you know, stuff that's, news). Unlike your wailing mate which is not news but incessant.

Well they/we (ACP) always needed funds to build the mine. $40m/$50m/$60m USD or whatever the actual current figure ends up being. Last time we checked the bank account it was $100k or so so yes, they do, as do Blackrock, circa $200m to be exact. Someone with a better handle on the original DFS can explain why our IRR is (and was always) better than Blackrocks but I do think it has to do with things like - if you build a smaller mine (as we planned to do) you take the best grade graphite then your IRR his higher. Lower capex for higher rate of return. But yeah there are loads of assumptions in there which as Amtech point out will be outdated now.

In the recent RNS ACP pointed out that if Blackrock build the infrastructure our updated DFS will be improved from if they don't. That's a no brainer and we've known that for years now because they will literally be building roads/power/rail sidings to the same geographical area as the ACP mine will sit eventually. So reasonably obvious that if they build it, in their capex, we want to piggyback to lower our cost. This is another reason it's important that BKT get their deal over the line and get building because it means you can tick those items off in your DFS as a given.

I'm not saying this news guarantees anything at all for ACP. But it is a significant development. Clearly Blackrock investors aren't as jaded as ACP investors because their mcap ($40m USD) compares favourably to ours ($3m USD) as probably does their bank account. GLA

By the way BKT seem to have dropped slightly on the funding news. I do think this is due to the dilution expectation and not a lack of adequate progress. With needing circa $200m USD they were always going to be a bit of a risk on bet of how the funding package would break down. 100% dilution to fund mines we've seen before it was like 250%+ on horizonte. Still better to have progress than no progress but dilution does matter (to shareprice)

Bunsenburner123 if you follow the naysayers and doommongers then it doesn't make one iota of difference to acp as we're apparently on the brink of collapse (I'm not commenting on that just repeating it as stated - it may indeed be true, or not, we're certainly not rolling in cash right now).

But if, like me, you believe that the hold up after years, and years, and years, of Blackrock saying 'we're nearlly ready to build this mine' then not sealing the finance deal has to do with Tanzanian govt agreements and mining laws, then Posco agreeing to underwrite the remaining tranche of investment and allowing around $150m debt package with South African banks to be finalised paving way to a fully financed mine HAS to be good for the region and has to be good for all graphite miners in the region, including Armadale. Blackrocks figures include building out rail/road/power to their mine all of which we would benefit from. It always took a bigger player to push the region towards graphite production ACP were never going to be the leaders - where would we raise $200m from?

So IMHO only (and I might be wrong) good news for ACP but personally I'll get properly excited when Blackrock start their build, and we're still in business. Lets see.

From the De Vries interview "complete the banking agreements, complete the rest of the funding package, then get on and start construction." Posco are described as the cornerstone. I do think this means that the equity is still to be raised (but having Posco put up $40m should satisfy the banks that it will complete) and paves the way for the debt to be finalised before the final raise. Then in the final raise I expect Posco to take less than $40m assuming they don't raise a really big number $100m+ through equity.

If they do a really big equity raise of course it will be pretty dilutive given the mcap is $60m AUD (circa $40m USD). Right now that looks like 100% dilution for $40m USD equity - obviously it would depend on the strike price of the deal.

Thanks Haffy

Thanks jsd, that's really helpful and a good read. If anyone is interested it's here:

https://blackrockmining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/InvestorPresentationAfricaDownUnder04Sep24.pdf

For me the key takeaways are, (it's there in black and white page 17 footnote):

"See ASX release 3 Sept 2024, POSCO Signs Binding Agreements for US$40m investment in Black Rock. Subject to regulatory approvals

and confirmation all necessary funding to build Module 1 is in place"

And on page 15 the next step is 'Finalise project debt and remaining funding and proceed to construction'.

My read of this is that now the equity portion of funding is sorted they can finalise the debt deals which were contingent on this. I still don't 100% understand how the equity split between Posco and other investors will happen for the remaining $40m portion but it appears moot because I do think Blackrock have the funding for at least stage 1.

As you say this is gamechanging for Blackrock, I just don't think Posco would have put pen to paper on the final tranche if they weren't happy with Tanzania terms. They must have reached agreement there. Interesting times indeed.

How this translates to Armadale we will see I believe when Blackrock proceed to build. And yes I know our cash position isn't great but a major hurdle will have been cleared to allow us to progress. Game on.