Member Info for wasarunner

john have you sold and want back in? There's a chap on the ACP board who (admittedly) sold and is pessimistic that there will be much more rise before production in 18 months. MY guess is he wants them back cheaper.

They could miss completion in September - my best guess is - that's likely as 3 weeks ain't a lot of time for all the news. Like Bwana says I think the key thing is to get the debt sorted. My sources indicate this is going well. My view is - if we miss it won't be by much - certainly not like last year when we essentially missed by a year.

In terms of the shareprice it is hard to call it undervalued. To me 6p was undervalued. I don't think they will do it much under 7.5p - when I spoke to SR in Feb he said the raise was as much to put a marker in the sand on the equity side. So if they raise at 7.5p this time you can't really call 7.8p overvalued. Not significantly anyway.

We will see. I like Bwana's optimism. My best guess post financing (when dust settles, not same day) is 10-12p. Again that's not a huge ramp - it's around 50% upside from here. But the news and the de-risking is huge for Horizonte so 50% upside is very justified and achievable - again always supposing equity is done on reasonable terms.

Wish you good luck with your investments. Horizonte is a cast iron hold or add for me, even at the current price.

but I must be getting better. My prediction for 8-9p area pre finance looks about right. I guess I just don't understand why we dropped. Do people really get that bored or can the small amounts of trading at the margins on low volume make that much difference? Surely the company isn't worth +/- £25m more or less than it was a month or so ago? Never mind, of such things are opportunities made.

My hope for how this plays out this autumn winter -> the cornerstone is a really big cheese. That makes mainstream financial press. Nickel stocks dwindle some more. Institutions like hedge funds and asset managers start to put two and two together and wonder if they should invest in pure play nickel producers. They get google out and stumble upon Horizonte, perhaps even this excellent board, as a resource. They try to buy Horizonte. The cornerstone of course won't sell them any, as won't Teck,Glencore,Cannacord, the new sticky II's who were involved in the upcoming Sept/Oct placing, and also of course all the savvy PIs who have been waiting patiently for the market to catch up and will be watching their daily paper gains and licking their chops. The shareprice therefore catapults to 25p because nobody can buy them. In the meantime nickel goes to $25k/t and Biden says nickel is really important for US infrastructure and that Elon should source massive quantities immediately. Elon is the cornerstone. Jeremy Martin buys some shares - 100 or so. OK maybe there is some fantasy here but at least some elements of the above are likely to play out to some extent in the next 6 months or so. All IMHO. Definitely a journey worth being on!

Thanks Luke - is this a cameo or have you bought in :) If not, probably still not too late!

sadly not - no funds. Happy for the rise really, there might be a price at which I don't buy more but I haven't decided what that is yet. All being well our side funds next week. I do have other targets also if Horizonte is out of range.
For this week - Horizonte and Armadale 'delivering the goods'. No complaints, my biggest two positions by far! And pleased for other holders too I know we have waited for this a long time. Genuinely think we are double digits this year and this time - that becomes a floor, not a ceiling.

If as I expect after revision of basket price we end up much closer to $600m NPV than $400m NPV just running the numbers - ~ £430m NPV ~530m shares (ignore warrants etc. for the minute) = 80p/sh at NPV. So what number should we have? 8p would still be 10% - still too low I would argue, even allowing for equity component and warrants conversion for mine build. So once the NPV is revalued probably more like double digits. 20p fully diluted 700m shares would still equate to only around 33% NPV. More than possible with a decent financing package for stage in the game.

So I would argue 6p is cheap on any measure - pre financing or post financing with a very viable range being anything 8-20p pre production. At production then who knows in 18 months time graphite could be trading still higher and of course we should be higher % of NPV.

All to play for. 6p is still just the beginning really.

CBax I always thought 8p-9p range realistic pre financing, allowing for a VWAP discount to the equity portion of the finance deal being able to be done at a slight discount but with a floor for 7.5p which is where the last raise happened. That to me made 8p-9p a realistic target 'pre deal'. I also think 8-9p is very reasonably first base 'post deal' multiplied by the enlarged shares in issue I would still anticipate a decent rise from there to the 10-12p range depending on exact financing mix and the all important question of 'who is the cornerstone'.

So for me, 8-9p pre finance and 10-12p post finance are targets for this year anything higher is a bonus. 15p at December I wouldn't complain about at all which is still nearly 100% upside from the current price. Others have higher potential valuations this year but I guess that depends on the financing mix which we don't know about yet.

Nothing on AIM seems to go in straight lines so there could be pullbacks who knows. It's the long game that interests me most and the 30-50p area!

Amazed to learn this weekend my new fell running shoes I just bought contain graphene in the sole (I think it makes it tough and grippy). Amazing what it can be used for. Good to be invested in something which has so many uses close to home!

though I did get a bit worried for a bit when the chap came on the board to tell us the equity would be done at 2.5p. Sorry couldn't resist! Will shut up now....

swest - the reason I didn't believe that an outcome (the shafting that is) is I do think Horizonte BOD do have options here because people want in. Remains to be seen who the cornerstone is, but at least Orion wanted in, and Glenore and Teck didn't want out. There MUST have been others knocking.

The banks are the banks - we have to accept that they are a. slow and b. slower due to covid. Once I figured (and effectively was indicated by SR) that the banks had been the slow part of this process I also figured there was plenty of interest and competitive tension to enable a deal on at least decent terms. That's when I figured this became a no brainer and the recent drops to 6p looked all wrong to me.

Anyway, nothing is 100% science we have to read the tealeaves and sentiment is important but sentiment is returning and we are close now. This is a world class asset, people want to invest in it. Orion invested in it and nickel future looks even more nailed on now than when they first jumped onboard.

I disagree but no right or wrong answer of course. Our circa £30m mcap is too low for a permitted mine with npv (after it gets.revised) north of $500m probably already but certainly after financing which could complete as early as end of year. You might be paying 10p+ next year. All imho.

A formality to finance specially considering the irr which really means the ml was the main risk here. And we got that confirmed on friday so as close to derisked as you are likely to get your mine in an african country with excellent macro for your commodity. Then finally you have to believe in the mgt team but mb has done this before and will deliver again, imo.

The sp is what it is because of uncertainty over the structure of the deal, probably, and no ii buyers are buying and pi's have already positioned or haven't heard of horizonte or prefer crypto or something else is my guess. The deal changes everything of course as it removes uncertainty for existing and new investors, enables ii's to buy,and perhaps most importantly, allows the mgt team to come out from behind years of negotiation and start shouting from rooftops and marketing the opportunity big. Thats what we all hope anyway. The current nickel price will help facilitate the deal but of course not directly relevant as we aren't producing yet so at this stage you wouldn't expect each rise or drop to mirror in the sp.

I think of all the factors uncertainty over the deal is probably the biggest one. My view is equity wont be done lower than 7.5p so I dont share the relative pessimism of the market and remain a buyer at current levels. Gla

I had actually thought the co could arrange that - orderly transition to another institutional shareholder. It isn't generally good for a company to have a constant background seller but maybe during the ML phase it didn't matter that much. It probably matters more from here on in - we don't want equity done cheap.

Very true but that creates opportunity. If this is an absolute stunning bargain at 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5p then the fact we had so long to load up (as long as we have 18 months to wait to production) presented the opportunity to fill your boots for the patient investor for many multiples returns.

Again slightly O/T but we had the same opportunity on Horizonte which was manifestly undervalued at anything under 5p for all of the last 3 years. I filled my boots at everything from 1.7p - 4.5p and now sitting on a tidy 7 figure paper profit before we've even got finance done let alone get to production. Because I was using regular income etc. to load up, the three year window to do so (plus the fortune of many II sellers) presented the opportunity.

Kabunga added a huge opportunity here make no mistake. We should have been 8p at least without Kabunga, for stage of de-risking already. Today we should be easily 8-10p and the Kabunga effect is still in play.

I like the way the AIM market works I really do. If you have patience, you also have time, and that's the way I've managed to make money out of it. Appreciate others have other strategies and these also work - but buying for news seems to be less of a thing as companies seem to rerate less on meaningful news than they should as you say on a 'risk removed' basis.

I would anticipate a gradual rerate here from £30m mcap to at least £50m mcap over the next weeks/months. What remains to be seen is how much Kabunga sold in the frenzy yesterday and how much he intends to sell going forward. Hopefully he can be taken out completely so when the financing news starts to land we don't have an II seller.

Don't want to jinx it but second half of Sept 'suits me just fine :)'. Lets see if we can get that VWAP a bit higher first....

Rover62 I dont but working on the basis we are fully financed by/in q1 next year to enable mine build after rainy season q2. That leaves around a 6 month window now for lots of newsflow. I expect a lot will be at quite advanced stages done in parallel with the ml. It is obvious we want the sp up to close the equity so expect newsflow on offtakes, debt, possible cornerstone investor etc. Hopefully they do equity min 8-10p range. Going to be an exciting 6 months. I expect us to be 10-15p q1 next year. 6 months will go fast - particularly when compqred to the time it took to get the ml! Revised presentation soon. Lots to look fwd to.

Also we have among (or actually?) the best % purities I believe, from talking to MB directly. And purities are a big deal going into the EV space.

stale bulls exit and Kabunga gets churned.

That way when the real deal lands (offtakes+finance) we are mainly LTHs left plus new entrants ready for finance and construction. So all the pullbacks are actually expected and normal. I think there will be stale bulls many have waited a long time to get their money out at any profit.

Profits a profit and traders trade ever was it thus. You have to decide if you want 10% today or 100% in a year - there is actually no right answer I'm harsh on short term traders at times but actually it is horses for courses and good luck to all. This will be up 100% from current price in a year (and probably a lot less time) I'm certain of it! I'm a carp trader so accumulate and build is my only strategy that has worked reliably for me over the years...but there is serious money to be made that way for sure.

Indeed - and the time taken to realise it.
So the way I look at it - Horizonte has NPV - ridiculous. Probably $7bn USD if you add Vermelho+Araguaia at decent nickel price.
With ACP I expect NPV to settle comfortably above $500m because I think the basket size/grade etc. can all be revised and of course NPV is based on 1/4 of resource.

But the reality is Horizonte will take years to get to that $7bn because you have to build 2 stages each of 2 big mines. ACP you build a much smaller mine quickly for your $500m NPV.

SO my thesis is still - they will move at different speeds but Horizonte is 'the mothership'. I'm in at around a ratio of 5:1 Horizonte/ACP. I need 1/6th of my returns quicker... but I believe Horizonte has the greater long term potential so that's where the lions share will remain irrespective of relative valuations etc.
Yes agree huge de-risk step of ML particularly because financing for ACP I think is a formality. As the last 3 years have proven for HOrizonte, $500m for a junior is far from formality. Nearly there on HOrizonte too though - coming soon IMO.