Member Info for wasarunner

The problem with finding something cheaper is making sure it is as good. I don't know the ggp story but presumably a very good one. With Horizonte we have had the opportunity to invest in a company £40-50m mcap with $80bn proven resource with 2 majors on the share register. I wouldn't trust myself to get this decision right again with a substantial proportion of my investment portfolio so I won't try. If there is a t/o then there is no choice but otherwise why not wqit till its 2025-2030, nickel is $30k/t and horizonte sp is £1 before figuring out what to do next?

If you move money to another opportunity you are also less certain on timeframes if investing in the next early stage Horizonte. I imagine many of the long termers here expected a result before 2021 and production at 2023. You have to be prepared to wait years. Once we are building this mine my expectation is plus or minus months, not years. I disagree that there will be price volatility or major setbacks. The team have had a lot of time to prepare, the mining is open pit, rkef is well understood, and part of horizonte mgt team remit is to hire the right engineers. They have some very good ones here. I think we will be producing in 2-2.5yrs from now in a flying nickel market. Hence will remain 75-80% invested here. Gla

Most people of most political persuasions want the same thing - a comfortable stress free (that includes financial stress) life. Most people I come across are not really 'greedy' that is to say, not trying to screw anyone over or absolutely maximise anything. If I wanted to maximise everything I'd bust a gut for 20 more years as we have (had) a successful business. What's the point. I'd rather walks in the countryside and that's mostly free. That said I'm prepared to benefit from a once in a generation transition to green energy and I will pass on the proceeds to my children and other good causes, as everyone else probably would. I mainly started investing actually to protect what I'd already worked hard for from the effects of what I believe to be the big 'inflation lie'. Headline rate of 2-3% oh and house prices rising 10%+ is just a 'one off'. It just so happens that HOrizonte did better than I expected! GLA

Anyone who doesn't like capitalism is free to live in a country run on another system. I have and it wasn't pretty :)

Looking back at my greedy capitalist trading I noticed on 08/04/20 I got 1042745 shares into an ISA for £20k B&I. At yesterdays closing price that's worth ~£94k in the ISA. Long live capitalism and GLA.

Thanks yorkie, for me, this co adds balance to the pf as this is a (albeit delayed) producer my other investments are a couple of years off producing realistically. Yes a setback but bigger picture - the main investors here have been supportive of delays so far, no reason to assume at the moment they won't be supportive now.

I might have bought DJs shares I added £85k today. I see it as a delay and an opportunity that's all. Just need to find out how they are going to extract the gold but the pictures on twitter show they're mining. GLA

Not a technicals man but I will stick my neck out and call 8p q bottom from here, and probably a min equity price for financing. If so then you have to decide if you are prepared to buy ~10% above a potential bottom. I dont see us going lower post finance complete I see us rising. Always dependent on timescales but if you are buying to hold till production and don't care too much for the 10% then buy now imo. I think market may get some scraps in any placing but nothing significant and no massive discount.

Just to qualify - I'm not disagreeing with Q3, I'm disagreeing that this could take 3 more months. As the posts overlapped etc...

Disagree, think they will be building by end of year therefore finance will be closed well before. They are on a timeline to production here, that's what I was told at beginning of the year (there is a window to get this built and producing - not sure what the driver is there, perhaps Orion royalty or something else). Financing won't take 3 months. My sources suggest jostling for position at the table. No shortage of interest. All IMHO

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/aston-martin-will-replace-vantage-db11-all-electric-cars

I am interested in this article on different levels. I expect Horizonte shares to be worth quite a bit by then, perhaps, dare I say it, to purchase one of these beauties when they are released (though I would probably wait for the electric DBS if that ever arrives...) But the timeframe - 2025 - suits me just fine. I would expect A1+A2 to be at or around production and V1 perhaps too with a bit of luck...

Yes the speculation of course being - that RNS was coming.

I don't expect any surprises on Stage 2 now Anna Legge has confirmed the ECA is for Stage 1, it is sensible for the company to build 1 stage, prove they can do it and get the credibility of actually being a producer. I do however expect them to raise to fund Vermelho to DFS. So I'm back to the original point which I find really interesting is who will be the strategic. Exciting times!

I always think it is another share moving that makes people sell. I like this pattern because if I want to buy a given share just wait till people are chasing elsewhere...

It's more a patience thing. No news for about a week and for some reason that is far too long for some to hold their investments for....which is strange because proper money seems to be made over longer periods of time.

Anna Legge has confirmed to another investor that the ECA is for Stage 1. I was basing my post below on the original $199m capex for Stage 2 but noted this has more recently been increased to $251m. Nevertheless if the same $146m could be obtained for stage 2 that is around 3/5 th capex covered by ECA for Stage 2. I don't think another $100m is too difficult at that stage, especially when production ramps up on Stage 1. Perhaps even the strategic investor dips into their pockets at that point to accelerate the build...

Two things occurred to me when I reflected on the ECA announcement yesterday.

1. It's a lot of money. There is the outside chance that this is the ECA for 2 plants and 2 sets of mining equipment for Stage 1 and 2. Personally, I doubt it, as I think a junior like Horizonte would rather walk than run initially when building the mine and wants to get Stage 1 up and running, but there has to be a chance, however small, that they might be funding 2 stages at once if the 'strategic investor' is game.

2. If $143m is ECA for 1 stage. Assumption is stage 2 requires exactly the same plant (same amount of trucks for same amount of extra nickel, same furnace). The funding gap for Stage 2 then becomes < $60m! Which is the equivalent of 3kt nickel gross production or around 1/5 of the production capacity of stage 1!

This is huge news IMO if the second point you can finance 2/3 of stage 2 capex from ECA. Even if Horizonte don't build stage 2 until after stage 1, my bet is -> it will be immediately after.

I think there will be equity but the strategic investor is probably here for more. What 'more' is we will see, it could be offtake, ie a buyer of the product in masse or indeed an eye on Vermelho. My hope is the strategic a. isn't too bothered about equity price and is prepared to pay $, and second isn't 100% equity.

Take the banks as a given and assume some offtake so far so good. Mark my words the big news here will be, and the question we should be asking is 'who is the Strategic Investor'. In the brmed interview JM has stopped referring to them as the cornerstone. And he doesn't mention equity. Hmmmm. So what is the Strategic Investor investing and who are they? This is literally the most exciting bit of the jigsaw as far as I am concerned, in the next few weeks. My guess is a major, and not a financier, so my question is, which one?? Find out soon I guess!

One thing I hope is this board will always be available for a good discussion in time to come as surely there will be many events well worth debating. And it doesn't 'descend' into what we've seen elsewhere at times. I've been out most of the day as this week is insanely busy so I can't keep up - it is typical that news lands when you have least time to look at it. Anyway thought I'd add that 2 pence as I've really enjoyed people's perspectives here - none of us are right even remotely close to 100% of the time, it is always opinion only, but we seem to be right in saying this company is going places. Going to be a hell of a journey! For some it has been a longer wait than others, some are just joining now, but one thing is for sure, if nickel and Horizonte go anywhere like what is predicted in the next 5 years, this an excellent point to be getting in. This is the brief moment between 'it's a done deal' and 'institutions are buying'. How long to be in such a position - maybe a month, 6 weeks max? GLA

Anyone now think 5 international and 3 brazilian banks can't manage $180m USD between them? By my calcs that's less than $25m per bank! And I would imagine the banks will be looking on the fact that the ECA's have approved finance as a pretty big de-risking event for Stage B debt financing...

The big unknown for me is - is the cornerstone only taking equity, or are they providing other finance. If the cornerstone does $50m offtake and $50m equity we really don't give a monkeys what price they do the equity - they can do it at 5p. Obviously they won't do that but it really wouldn't matter at that stage. Really think anything from 2.5bn-3bn is realistic and the low end of that spectrum would be an amazing outcome for what we've got here.

Hi Billyboy I don't really because clearly it is quite a complex finance package to pull together. I would say todays news outperforms expectations and this has already provided a mini re-rate event ahead of equity. It is clear they've ditched the 'all news in one RNS' approach as they probably felt the shareprice was too low - this was my reading of the situation latterly hence it looks like the staged approach has been adopted.

We are at around 1.8bn shares today including options. I'm happy with 3bn shares total. There is a good chance we end up with less. 1bn shares at 8.5p issued is ~$140m usd which would get us to $470m usd including debt + what was raised in Feb. Offtake could reduce this further. I think they will raise more - maybe $500m total. So anything between 2.5bn-3bn shares might be possible.

As to what mcap we can achieve with 2.5bn-3bn and at what stage in the next 2 years to construction I actually don't know. My hope is we can get to around 15p post finance in the next 6 months. Really happy with that. If we sit at that number until the mine is fully built that's absolutely fine. Probably along the line we will get further upside from Vermelho anyway. I might be being too pessimistic again others on this board have suggested a higher SP is possible fully financed from the same number of shares. So we will see! GLA