Member Info for wasarunner

I took 8 months following the last update to mean first 8 months of production, whenever that starts. It was craftily wirded so it didnt directly contradict the rns earlier in the year but pretty obvious it aint going to be 15koz this calendqr year imo. 25koz from production 8 months fine as long as we start producing soonish. This is aim, this is a junior miner, delays are normal. Its the end result that counts. All imho.

Yes normally mcap moves up as the compqny becomes profitable but I know what you mean we are in for multiples here. I joined late ish my average around 11p but got time to wait. Gold going one way for next couple of years. Gla

I don't follow (or trust) Sachs but you have to use instinct here. For me - the macro outlook for gold is - the west is in debt - big debt. America, UK, etc. I simply don't buy the 'we will raise interest rates when inflation comes' argument because if you raise interest rates with any substance and your economy is up to eyeballs in debt, you bankrupt the economy.

Only way forward (IMO) is let the currencies deflate which deflates the debt. In that scenario, welcome to the era of gold. Goldmans might be being conservative on the gold price even. I am very bullish on gold because - I think inflation is inevitable (indeed it is all around us right now) and central banks are powerless to stop it without crippling their economy, which it turns out, the latter is unpopular with the electorate.....

Only a matter of time before gold > $2k/oz IMO. Roll on production at Goldstone!

I have a small bet on with a mate that Horizonte will pass EUA in share price this year. I sold up EUA with tidy profit when it was trading at 3.5x HZM and bought Horizonte. Early as it turns out but a win is a win and I preferred Horizonte on 'fundamentals'. EUA seems to be in semi freefall and the big rerate due here, it could be as early as end September when my guess becomes reality. No regrets at all putting what I put in here over the years, do believe we are about to see the win for patient holders. GLA

Interesting BBNs thoughts - slightly worst case but that is no bad way to look at investments especially where preservation of capital is a consideration. Essentially saying 3.2bn shares - which we could live with, but I am hoping better of course. the point he is making and I have seen him make this point on twitter is there should be an immediate jump in value because the fully diluted (around 7p) shares would still only put the company at 30% NPV which is too low fully financed and doesn't factor Vermelho.

I am still hopeful of the 2.5-3bn shares scenario with some prepay offtake in there. I also think 'who is the cornerstone' remains the key question as we will get a massive clue - are we really going to get sold eventually, or is someone here for something else. GLA Did I mention 5 weeks today is last trading day in Q3.

excellent - to be fair it looks like it 10 bagged, but sadly over 33 years. I'm looking more for the 10 bags in 3-5 year type stocks - like Horizonte of course :) My lifestyle isn't healthy enough to guarantee another 33 years....

>> with the most likely time frame the next two weeks
Hope not. Don't get my cash till third week in Sept....otherwise I'll be looking for O/T answers on a postcard: next best investment after Horizonte (excluding the ones I already know about, GRL and ACP).

If we haven't heard anything (contrary) by end of next week I'm happy news is coming in September. The RNS 4th Dec broke the progress news (with delay) to financing not completing in 2020. I think if there is material slippage we will hear very soon. After 3rd Sept then there are just under 4 trading weeks left in Q3 for the 'big one' RNS we have all been waiting for, in my case going on 3.5 years, many others (much) longer! I think we will get it in September.

Expect some 20%ers to exit around now (unless they see a bit more gain and can wait till September). I've bought 1.3m shares below current price in last month or two and could exit for 20% gain if that was my game. I'm here for the bigger win though!

The £45k we borrowed doing good work now.
How the hell did we get these under 6p less than a month ago?!
26/07/2021 BUY HZM LSE 166392 0.0598 9999.99

First target - placing price.

Thanks tdt
Didnt know you could get that.

I normally only see the declared positions which I do by calling a mate who has bloomberg. Afaik this does require the holder to notify the registrar of the position change? So it can be out of date. It is interesting that the nominee accounts tend to supply quite up to date posns they always have a later date on bloomberg. Has anyone watched the volumes are we picking up yet? You might expect it into September.

26 trading days after today if my maths is right. It isn't a huge amount of time. Assuming not all of the news lands in one RNS (if for example something needs to be tied up with offtake or equity after the credit approval lands) you would expect news early September to conclude the lot in September. I really can't see them missing this quarter this time. Maybe, even if the final piece doesn't land by end of September but I am expecting concrete pieces of finance news during September. The long wait is nearly over. Strike while the iron (or nickel) is hot - currently over $19k/t. It has been a long wait, hopefully we get a deal that was well worth waiting for.

Looks like its doing fine just all on its own! Would really like around 8p before finance, I had thought 8p-9p was realistic pre finance.

In just over 3 weeks time I will hopefully have enough for another 4m shares. I don't mind trying to bump the price along (up a bit) into financing. But sincerely hoping deal is done by then and I don't get a chance...

As VauxhallViva on twitter kindly pointed out the same article mentions peer projects trading at 5c-7c/lb post BFS in 2013. Again caveat Vermelho isn't at DFS but that would have Horizonte trading at _minimum_ 18p now. And as far as Vermelho goes - with the extensive work Vale did I would suggest we are at 'PFS+' stage or 'DFS-'. I do believe a major would already pay above PFS rate for Vermelho nickel.

Roll on financing! All of the above is for an unfinanced mine, which has not been constructed yet. I expect a different valuation post finance for Araguaia (as a buyer doesn't have to fund the $500m capex already in the bag), and a different valuation again at production.

I read back to an interesting article from 2013 where JM talks about valuations here:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/52941/nexus-energy-in-trading-halt-don-voelte-resigns-as-chairman-52941.html

(no idea why the URL is what it is but it is what it is)

"After the PFS is complete, chief executive (CEO) Jeremy Martin and his team will immediately throw themselves into the preparation of the bankable feasibility (BFS), which is a potential watershed for the company.

It is at this point the real value crystallises.

The deal of the sector, the US$850mln takeover of Onca Puma, just 150 kilometres up the road, occurred at this stage in the process.

It’s at successful conclusion of the BFS, when a deposit is fully de-risked, that larger firms start looking seriously and bidding for projects.

The price obtained for Onca Puma back in 2005 was a very juicy 23 cents a pound of nickel in the ground - a high water mark that is unlikely to be achieved in the near future, particularly with nickel at depressed levels.

“I don’t think we will see another transaction at that level, but fifteen cents [per pound] at the bankable stage is a realistic valuation. So, this is our longer-term value jump,” CEO Martin told Proactive Investors."

So this interests me - I know not all 4m tonnes of our nickel is at BFS stage yet (and perhaps that's why Horizonte desperate to get Vermelho to same stage) BUT:

4m x 2204 (lb/tonne) x $0.15 = $1.3bn ~ £1bn GBP with some rounding

So back in 2013 JM thought applying a reasonable value to 'in the ground' nickel, at todays measured and proven quantities, Horizonte is worth around £1bn. Or ~30p with 3bn shares or ~55.5p with todays issued capital including options.

Worth pondering, that....in case a transaction does happen here in the next 0-18 months.

What I love is that we can speculate. Whatever else, this has been an absolute journey! For me 2018 moment 'my ftse stocks are a bit boring it would be interesting to research an alternative oh I think electric vehicles are a thing'. More specifically I invested in decarbonisation of the world initially uranium turns out I was a few years early but on the right general track.

Journey is coming full circle I do believe we find out the result soon. I'm baffled as to why we aren't valued higher so all theories (leftfield or otherwise) remain valid at this point! I know you shouldn't really consider it such but it is quite exciting in the runup to the outcome. I don't believe JM has led this outfit for 10 years not to deliver a result, admittedly we aren't 100% guaranteed he is working for the small man here as swest points out. Always good to remain grounded.

My theory was always that we would get sold. I do think the nickel market is gathering traction and the noises miners like BHP are making means the periscope will very much be shifting onto opportunities like Horizonte. Our BOD will be very aware of this, it can't just be us that reads the industry press. Wonder what conversations are 'really' going on behind closed doors. GLA

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1428803304885260289

I'm not sure if he means in the next 12 months (which was the original context of the thread). Interesting - certainly can't be ruled out. If in the next 12 months then post finance complete is my guess an offer would land (perhaps from the cornerstone)? Then let the bidding commence?

I still think T/O nearly inevitable but hope we survive a bit longer than 12 months. At least a juicy DFS more in line with future nickel pricing (and premium) for Vermelho if we have to sell, would be nice.