Member Info for wasarunner

It will be transformative to the company's prospects but how it translates into immediate effect on the SP is of course anybody's guess. The transformation will be having access to $500m cash to unlock $1bn+ NPV project.

I think we will get a nice nudge up when the cornerstone is announced. I still maintain - if large industry player - and if a miner, the market will sit up and take note. Investors will view a company like Horizonte with a different risk weighting with a Glen/BHP/Vale behind/alongside it. And we have to remember this news is due in the next (maximum?) 8 weeks or so.

I can't see it being the placees - not great business buying 7.5p selling 6.2p. My guess is entities or individuals who have held a long time, what baffles me is, if you've held this for 3-5-7 years plus why would you sell 3-5-7 weeks before transformative news. Hey ho. More opportunity. If our business sale completes 1st Sept (which is 4 weeks today!) I'm back in here with size. GLA

>>one thing is for sure - prices will be higher, and our nickel will be being mined (by somebody).
Sorry that's two things. Maths never my strong point! GLA

CAGR of 5% means 1.62x as much nickel in 2030 as 2020. 2.5m tonnes in 2020 give or take means 4.07m tonnes in 2030, or an additional 1.57m tonnes. Which is 29x (Araguaia S1+S2 + Vermelho S1+S2) i.e. 29 new producers of Horizonte's size are required by then. Who said our nickel wouldn't be in demand?

I've seen even bigger estimates of 2x as much nickel demand in 2030 than 2020. Of course many of us may not still be invested by that stage but one thing is for sure - prices will be higher, and our nickel will be being mined (by somebody).

Chicken and egg isn't it. When peeps realise this is the share to buy and start buying mms have to raise the price to entice sellers. Except in the case of Horizonte I think they will have a problem because when the traders exit there wont be sellers to meet buying demand. It is a low volume share and if the cornerstone takes the rump of new shares buyers won't find sellers - all imo. In that context current selling is to be welcomed as it is probably from entities that need out at any price. We are quite neqr year lows and on the verge of huge rerating news so what other possible reason for selling. All imho

Hi dop, no 3bn shares is not mad by any stretch it seems to be around consensus on this board based on what we know about the equity portion of the finance package (the missing part after the debt is accounted for for capex). Latterly I'm hoping less and here's why - my hunch is the cornerstone will part finance with non equity, and additionally any other prepay offtake from other parties combined with a higher sp at raise would mean we do end with less. There are additionally IIRC something like 100m or 150m in options which you want to factor for mcap calculations.

MC will depend on what % of NPV we are trading at at the time and of course the NPV will be driven by nickel price amongst other things (like the costs of production but these should remain reasonably stable). I can't see us at £1.5bn just with Araguaia stage 1 alone, even with a really really strong nickel price I don't think it is enough, but if the market already factors something for A2 or Vermelho then it is eminently possible. Down the lines as others have mused (most recently pickedpeck excellent post) $10bn mcap is possible which would equate even with 3bn shares at >£2 a share. The main problem being we are likely taken over well before that point.

Somewhere between 30p and £2 exit is a worthy goal imo and well worth hanging on for!

In my boredom I have started tracking the total shareprice of my shares as a measure of progress. At July month end my portfolio is ~29p. My goal for end of next March is ~65p based on what I think they will do. It's a crude measure but passes the time..... of course you can cheat and add a share to your pf which is measured in £ but I'm happy with my penny stocks accounting method....

I think the problem is there are patient people and impatient people. I'm impatient I like to 'go get' and in the dayjob that gets a lot of things done it makes you successful. Problem is investments the opposite 'go get' typically you make mistakes (unless you are a great trader and can read the runes - I get it - there are those that can), so 'sit on your hands' is how one makes money. Totally unnatural to me I have to confess :) I'm not selling a bean here, over the months I have built back from 20m+ to around 22.3m shares inc family. But waiting is well.....not doing anything! I think the tension comes from uncertainty - for e.g. - if your investment was in a rock solid company which paid a boring 4-6% divi a year. You wouldn't be impatient because to +/- 90% certainty you would know that on 5-12th April next year you would land £xk of income. The impatience I have here is I think the deal will be really good, and I am genuinely interested in 'what next' after that, but I really want it to happen yesterday!

Discipline is really hard, at least, I find it really hard. I'm currently waiting for news on my three main investments literally any can land on any day - Horizonte (finance news), Goldstone (gold pour/first production), Armadale (mining licence). With news literally possible to drop any day, of course the correct thing to do is not touch a thing as all are potentially big rerate events. Trying to call/time anything is impossible. So 'hold' or possibly 'add' is what should be happening (as all are pretty weak on the shareprice at the moment).

The problem I have, and I'm sure others like me can't be unique. I've watched my PF drop in value consecutively end of July was the fourth 'month end' where the total value was less than the previous month end + investment made during that month. When your portfolio is trading sideways, or even drifting down, the temptation is really to 'do something' and I find this really hard after 4 months of relative quiet. Just have to keep telling yourself money is made over longer timeframes and through patience. Or at least, that's the discipline I'm trying to learn!

Sorry about the O/T but not a lot happening here at the moment. nickel looks rangebound $19k-$20k/t but lets face it, you can't really ask for a better price to complete a big financing deal.

Agreed on price predictions ,there is a large amount of pinch of salt to be taken as there are usually far too many variables even on fundamentals (let alone market sentiment which if course is completely unpredictable) but we all have to have targets or the investment becomes too undisciplined/amorphous IMO. As for T/O valuations - I'm perfectly happy with 3xOnca Puma (as we have 3 times the resource), so 3x$870m=£1.8bn which conveniently currently 1.7bn+0.1bn options = £1/sh. 'it will have to do'. GLA

Hi dop, your figures are reasonable but as ever lots of variables - for me I am happy with where I think nickel will be in 2-3 yrs but what happens with our biggest asset at this stage is anybodies guess (perhaps we find out if the cornerstone has potential to be the jv partner).

My targets - 15p next year 30 at production end 2023 early 2024, anything else a bonus and if we stay independent and vermelho goes to production 50p+ is prob achievable. Cant help with other question as personally only ever deal shares. Good luck.

Good luck Luke. Much more experienced investors than me have said money is made when buying, not when selling. Selling high is easy. Buying during sideways drift is hard because conviction wavers but fundamentals are all here IMO with Horizonte and the lull is an opportunity. I remain convinced the deal will be better than expected but timing as ever is hard to call, I am thinking finance completes in September so question is do we get anything earlier? This week, is my hope. Gla

I think the rabbit here is if the cornerstone funding isn't 100% equity. In the discussions on this board we've generally assumed it to be but it doesn't have to be. e.g.

- if the cornerstone is Orion, they often do fixed financing models - debt/equity/offtake/royalty
- if the cornerstone is Glencore, they would obviously also be interested in the product, so the funding arrangement could include offtake (as part of the $100m commitment)

If not all of the $100m is dilutive then very good things become possible for the SP post finance completion IMO. I'm very hopeful it isn't all equity - and I really like the term 'Cornerstone strategic investor' which was used in the last RNS. It hints at a broader range of investment and a more 'strategic' long term view.

The cornerstone is hoping they remain the cornerstone. And aren't replaced by another cornerstone offering higher price. The price won't be everything if it a strategic horizonte will select based on what else they bring to the table (offtake? develop vermelho?) but will still be a consideration. We mustn't assume only one entity was prepared to offer $100m for stake in world class assets. All imho.

yes I put current sp down to three things:
- 7.5p placing killed momentum when we were higher
- summer weakness AIM generally
- the banks being banks taking the time they have taken (due to Covid or any other reason)
But if none of the above are fundamental reasons why the deal should be less attractive to existing holders, and indeed, it has bought Horizonte a bit more time to consider suitors and select the best of the best (lets not forget JM told us they selected Orion, not just vice versa) then why shouldn't the deal be a good one? Markets are imperfect and this creates opportunity, I think 6.xp is opportunity.

Three clues that significant entities want action here:
- Orion invested $25m
- Cornerstone announcement $100m
- Feb $25m placing oversubscribed 2.5x
This 'finance not getting done' or Horizonte shareholders getting shafted nonsense is just tiring. You just have to look at the facts as they are presented and make your own judgement IMO.

Think what the market got wrong here is the assumption that Horizonte have the begging bowl out trying to land this money, and not that many significant entities are queueing up to get a slice of $80-100bn in the ground assets as nickel is rising. The long credit approval by the banks (Covid being the reason I was given) has exacerbated this. This is why I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the deal and the current sp is just bonkers.

In all the excitement about minimum equity price I've missed the nickel high this morning:
19,957.50
Happy days. Perfect storm indeed. $20k/t today, or maybe next week anyone? GLA

I didn't post worst case dilution scenario: cornerstone is a.n. other (Orion), $150m raised, shares issued: 1.33bn, bringing total shares issued 3.03bn ignoring options.
Best scenario: Teck, $100m raised, shares issued: 510m, total shares in issue 2.21bn ignoring options

So you takes your pick. I'm very happy with the outcome because it suggests we will be at or below 3bn in almost any scenario.

Nice thing about the calc though is - unless they really make an artificial raise (shares to others cheaper than cornerstone) you physically can't do it under about 8p without a mandatory T/O OR unless you land the full $325m as debt. Which confirms to me the current sp is absolute nonsense, assuming we are down here because people think equity will be done at 6 or 5p or something. It just won't. As others have pointed out - a major has to pay premium for 30% of the co because they physically can't buy those shares on open market and achieve the same result.

I got another £5k this morning. That's my last buy before September. With a little luck I don't get another opportunity as finance lands. GLA - strap in for this ride.