Member Info for wasarunner

There's also no reason we would stay on AIM forever, especially with a chunky strategic investor who themselves may be a 'blue chip' miner or similar onboard. Perhaps upgraded listing doesn't happen until A1 gets to production at which point it could be beneficial for raising additional capital etc for A2/V. Horizonte will eventually outgrow AIM if we stay independent.

Dont see a better opportunity (but on 3-5yr view) so I will hold irrespective of what happens post.finance. I want to see a2 and/or v go into production or takeout whichever comes first. I do think few opportunities of this size in that timeframe.

More if V output commands the ev premium $2-4k/t in due course and also add cobalt 'for free'. Yes it is a cash generating monster at that point...

But the market should start pricing nickel q1 2024 at production start when I do believe nickel will be north of $20k/t especially if inflation allowed to happen as I expect and $ week. So the npv at production should be over $1bn.

I do wonder if the delay will be blessing in disguise (except for investors who obviously need that exit soonest as a few have put their hands up) - if nickel is flying at start of production not only is capex easy to pay down, but also phase 2 is easier to fund, and indeed the company is ripe for 'generous' offers because nobody sells a producing mine in a flying nickel environment cheap.

Obviously I would rather we had been building the mine during covid and be producing end 2022 but it might just work out dandy for those who can afford to wait another couple of years. Appreciate not all can. Gla

Credit Approval is in a very good place is all I will say. I need to know, 75% of my net worth is here. Therefore Q3 'for the lot' remains very much in play (whether or not a chance of slip). Expect the unexpected. In this case, JM hitting a deadline, and with a better deal than the market expects. All IMHO

I'm hopeful we can wrap up finance in 2021. I know that sounds like a long time but actually given that the ML has dragged (lets face it, most expected it sooner!) it will be four months to complete finance from end of August which is reasonably doable I would think given the total Capex requirement, assuming the company has already made some advances in this area. The offtakes are of course going to be key to securing the finance and these could land practically after the ML.

So my hope simply put - finance done and dusted end of year what SP? I'm normally pessimistic of persuasion so I'd happily take 10-15p at that stage. Still 2x or 3x multiple of the SP today. After that it comes down to building the mine, from conversations we've had with people who know more about it, this sounds a straightforward in Armadale's case. So hopefully producing next year though it may be tail end of. From now, that's not a lot of holding time for multiples returns, appreciate many have been invested here patiently waiting months/years already. Hopefully all kicks off very soon.

I would actually get it if we were 7 years away but we are 7 weeks away now. That's the bit I don't get. Is this literally the last time you can buy single digits (i.e. next 7 weeks?) I hope so. Except we don't know it will be 7, it could be 2! GLA

The clues that this is a great investment (not exhaustive):
Orion, Glencore, Teck, Cornerstone 'strategic investor' ready to part with $100m who may or may not be one of the three. Banks complete DD for $325m 60-65% debt funding. Offtakes negotiated. $80bn 'in the ground' nickel value. Lowest quartile C1 cost making >$12k/t EBITDA at CURRENT nickel prices. And did we mention nickel demand? Tesla, Elon, Woodmac, gigafactories etc. Oh we also have some cobalt - specifically, $2bn at current prices. Cobalt is probably worth the current mcap and it is practically a bi-product. Everything adds up except the shareprice, peeps are scared, what of, I don't know. The clues are all above!

I think one or more of three things are playing out at the moment.

1. Market doesn't 'get' the opportunity. Still concerns what ifs what dilution will it get done etc. Questionmark over the deal.
2. Previously missed deadlines are causing would-be investors to be cautious and they simply don't believe the 7 week countdown we now have here.
3. Just general apathy and lack of investment appetite in junior opportunities at the moment.

I actually don't care which (plural) may be in play here but they are all wrong. We're halway through August with one month left of Q3, and more importantly from my point of view, we WILL be building a mine by year end and I expect a shareprice ~15p (or more) by that time. In my world that's doubles your money in 4 months. There may be better opportunities out there but of course doubling your money here is really just the start.

So I put it to you that short of Jeremy Martin saying 'we will release the RNS on Monday' they really can't do much more now. To complete a $500m financing deal in the next 7 weeks means literally every component is known, including what if any tidbits are thrown out to general equity to general market (existing shareholders or open offer) - my guess is, as close to bugger all as they care to offer here. The rest of the deal is DONE. So how we stay at 7p is beyond me but market is wrong bigtime (and we may see a correction upwards in coming weeks I don't know). GLA

$80bn nickel to be $100bn by time of production plus some cobalt is what we are aitting on £117m mcap. Less some rounding that's some 1000x multiple.

Confirms this is all wrapped up in next 7 (yes 7) weeks max, and also confirms what I suspected that all other finance elements are already negotiated pending credit approval - company confirming today that they will come soon after. Lovely. I don't think q3 will miss now barring a disaster. Gla

Late 23 early 24 imo. Its a 2yr+ build and isnt clear to me how much the long lead items take from that total and indeed how much of long lead items horizonte dared get going on without the main finance package in place. Add in for usual delays I would be happy with q1 2024 to start producing. I have a vague theory that all the delays etc are designed to ensure our start of production coincides with strong nickel price well north of $20k/t+ and so ensure rapid capex payback or easy stage 2 financing. Just a leftfield theory but passes the time....

Yep for my sins to test your patience and I'm not a patient man normally but apparently in investing its what makes your money! Outcome mpre important to me than timescales I have high hopes this gets financed this year construction next then production....

My life will change when I don't check daily if the ml landed! Meant lightheartedly but surely soon, even Tanzanian beaurocracy can only take so long.......etc

Wrong sp (for now, but expect that to change shortly...)

Our mcap minus cash is now substantially less than when the feb financing was done. 108-109 mcap less the cash that was raised then is 90mgbp mcap which is below where we were for majority of q4 last year and q1 this year, which is just wrong imo - cash is cash. The prospects for the mine are better than ever with nickel 19.5k and bank dd complete - yet here we are sub 100m ex cash. Bananas. I expect something very different come september, perhaps as bwana says now optimistic that we hear credit approval in august. I still think current sp is nuts. Gla

All nominees are up across that period and Barclays has fallen off the list (presume because CIBC have trumped them).

Cannacord haven't sold - that's a good thing - they aren't playing silly buggers in runup to financing.
So the seller isn't on that list. Maybe someone who took a placing in Feb then sold, but if so,why, it doesn't make sense....

I chat to another PI with a decent holding (who may or may not read this forum I'm not sure) and I know he has reservations about HPAL and Horizonte going down this route. Individually Horizonte can't do it - because they can't afford to get it wrong. If you are a major and one of your HPAL projects goes wrong but you have 30 other projects, you can probably take it on the chin and plod on. If you are Horizonte with 1 ferronickel and 1 HPAL (bigger capex, more complicated process) and you get the latter wrong, it's curtains. So we know Horizonte won't do HPAL alone so I'm pretty relaxed - if it ends up HPAL it will be a major with proven competence in HPAL (probably) who takes it on. Otherwise they can go the nickel matte or ferronickel route and probably have a greater list of potential partners they can engage for such a venture.

I know I keep harping on about it but watch this space on the cornerstone. I have no knowledge, but to me 'strategic investor' has an eye on the bigger pie. All IMHO

Agreed - it could - and this is where the cornerstone gets interesting - are they here for Vermelho. If the cornerstone is someone who 'might be interested in a HPAL project' and if Horizonte, after this finance round is complete, have somehow raised money to do a HPAL DFS and announce it, I will put 2 and 2 together to make 4.......

Alternatively Horizonte could speculatively spend whatever it costs on a HPAL DFS in the hope that a major comes to build it later. My hope is they already have clues that someone will pick it up that's why they are doing it. I don't think Horizonte will build HPAL (alone). Too risky as you say.... but this is why the current junction is interesting because they HAVE to progress Vermelho in some direction to eventually get value from it. No point leaving it as an empty field with a study Vale once did. I think we find out this year.

I think anything that can be produced at Vermelho for battery will go battery simply because of the premium eventually that will command. I think Horizonte have already made this decision - that they will pay for a DFS on Vermelho which delivers this route to a shovel ready project a major could pick up (whether the JV / major is involved in the DFS remains to be seen). Basically, for a spend of some millions of $ (10? more?) you have a multi billion $ shovel ready 'battery nickel' mine ready for one of the big boys to build and run. And hopefully we get a nice % in royalties or, they buy the lot at significant premium of course.

Want more nickel for stainless steel? No problem! We have Serra do Tapa! Optionality indeed - 3 large resources.