Member Info for wasarunner

>>Seems pretty clear to me that the market makers want stock.
It was pretty clear to me the market makers didn't want me to buy stock so I think you're right.

My 2 pence - it was unusually hard to buy £20k. So either MMs are loading (orders?) or loading for what they know is coming, whether tomorrow or in short order. If the sells were flooding it and the price was dropping I would normally expect a £20k trade on Horizonte to be 'no problemo'. If the RNS tomorrow isn't great, there could be a great big tree shake BUT can you buy? I had to buy above ask for any size today. I'm not convinced they want to sell you any. They want shares for when the big news lands I expect and want to sell them much higher. And that may (or may) not be tomorrow. Smart the MMs they will buy from weak hands all day long....

Whatever the first moves tomorrow morning I am waiting for things to settle before entering (buy or sell side). GLA

Yes it was hard to buy. I probably should have split the trades up. I don't mind - 8.5p is a bargain IMO with what's coming. I've never tried to maximise on the buy side I am happy maximising the sell side.

Craig not quite but tomorrow might depending on how that plays and how cheap we go! I really think the case for 'good deal' here has got better and better (putting timescales to one side) as I think the recent news of Teck rumoured to be buying assets means majors are hovering, and if not yet pulling a trigger on an outright buy of a company like Horizonte, taking a 'strategic' position (and I use the term deliberately) is what we might well get. So I am convinced the deal will be a good one (ECA surprised me to the upside) hence for me this is an easy 20% trade with potential to be worth much more than that - when the strategic gets announced. I can't see them taking that much longer (after debt is done and dusted) to drop that big news, it is the 'who' I am interested in. A re-rate event I believe.

Short term price may drop, so what, add more. More and more I am convinced they have plenty of time to stack up the news behind the debt, in fact, as the debt lands they will already have the offtake secured and the strategic signed, whether or not that gets announced in the same RNS.

I expect the 'big' RNS by at least end of October. After the big RNS I expect shareprice north of 10p WHEN the strategic gets announced.

In the meantime, the shareprice may drop. I'm carp at timing entries so I don't care and will add more. This is the easiest 20% I will make in 4-6 weeks (I just extended my own deadline to mid Nov). GLA

Same thesis. Still £100k for tomorrow if we drop further. GLA

15p by year end would be nice but my target for the trade(s) is 10p for ~20% (more if we drop tomorrow) as I think we will be >10p post finance. So modest target for a small position with the core holding I'm waiting for 2025 or 2026 before any selling.

£22.7k
I have £100k standby for tomorrow (and possibly another trade for today) if we drop further

These are 'trade' I will sell on finance. End of October is my target, don't give a monkeys what gets announced tomorrow, finance done I sell, finance not done I buy. GLA

Contrarian this was your post on 17th June. SP was 6.5p at the time.

"RE: Our recent seller...17 Jun 2021 13:04
Or unless you know you can re-enter at a better price and deploy capital in the interim to work for you. There seems to be so much hopium breathed in on this board it is unbelievable. Theories upon theories paralysis by too much analysis. The market will walk HZM down whilst waiting on news. The choice one should be looking at is this and it is very simple.
Put the shares in a drawer and come back to it sometime during Q3 (who knows when...) or
Sell now deploy capital elsewhere and come back, if you believe that HZM is a great opportunity later when the price inevitably drifts downwards on no news or irrelevant/vague news."

I'm just surmising from your recent post you didn't sell then (assuming you were invested at the time) held till now, then sold some of your position now? That was a really good move, ignoring the hopium, because you gained around 50% up!!! Well done? Or did you cunningly sell, catch the bottom around 6p (I did buy then, by luck more than anything else, but with new money - no selling) and is that is what you are selling now?

You can't have it both ways you see. As an investment you can't think Horizonte is a 'sell' at 6.5p and a buy at 9p. Because the fundamentals of the company are and remain the same - this is a company with going on $100bn in assets, getting financed 'around now' lets leave that bit a bit vague, so it is either value at 6p in which case it is probably also value at 9p. Is all I'm saying.

I hope nobody buys the bull if the finance doesn't land 30th September. I really do. What matters is the next 3 months - 3 years not the next 3 days and people who suggest you should sell Horizonte at 6.5p should eat humble pie and we should point that out to them. So I just did. GLA

Even better, I will bet my house on that outcome (he will like that, people can check posting history) ;-)

Beware of contrarian arguments in the echo chamber is all I will say. Is it nearly time to orchestrate an artificial drop to re-entry? Trade run its course? Apparently still invested but sold some too? Win if it goes up win if it goes down. Pull the other one. Not subtle at all.....

Anyone invested on anything >3 month view keeps hold of their shares, waits for financing to complete, gives the fud traders nothing, and is looking good at 10p+ come 2022. And that is mu contrarian contrarian (albeit echo chamber) view.

I could be 100% wrong but it could debt+something else and so they are lining up a nice rns for Thursday and dotting the i and crossing the t. Unlikely the lasrt bank signs thursday morning. I am expecting it to come thursday and to contain maybe more than just debt.

We are agreed - not the best communicators, for sure. Sometimes that isn't the name of the game, I am instinctively wary of companies that beat their own drums constantly. But a happy middle ground of - investors know wtf is going on but not bigging yourself up too much and staying reasonably humble - all engineering hits snags and delays after all and Africa can't be the easiest place to operate in particularly when it comes to the beaurocracy side and admin of licencing things. We saw this on ACP too the licence took foreveeeeeeeeeer and apparently it is a really straightforward process. Nonetheless I am really enthusiastic here and hoping for news on this goldroom in October then first pour perhaps.

https://twitter.com/wasarunner1/status/1442770875384741891

Interesting. If Teck are buying into nickel space we are the ready made opportunitu as they already hold 12%. Watch this space I guess ! Teck can't take too many shares and not exceed 30% so if they are the strategic investor we will get a good deal.

JL - I'm assuming that predictor is like the other one that is commonly used - they are often good for a laugh but probably no more. I think it is very algorithmic, probably not very accurate for a company like this one, which has never produced earnings/yield. It is quite hard to program an algo for 'when will the pour happen and what will be in it' when you never previously poured gold!

I have to confess Goldstone is my least well researched stock (personally) in my PF but I have it on strong recommendation and I really like gold fundamentals as I am a big believer that inflation is coming and there are no tools to stop it. Operational issues presently aside, I am very much hoping 30p next year and indeed this should be my first dividend paying miner, as ever the trade-off is dividend against expansion of resource and development of Akrokeri perhaps they will develop resources for a few years yet before considering dividend. The attraction here is they can get the surface mining going with relatively low opex and technical risk (please don't other contributors shoot me down re: goldroom) then expand. I am excited about this investment and saw the recent setback as an opportunity to double up. GLA

VV yes you are saying the same thing. Dilution matters (a bit) but nickel price matters a lot more. As the participants, including the Strategic partner here, all have their expectations of the higher nickel price, they can weight their 'negotiations' accordingly. The BOD know what they're selling, the buyer knows what they are buying. 'Strategic' investor IMO pays 'strategic' prices for their investment. It needs to be good for both seller and buyer. If you interpolate between today and 5 years time, there is an awful lot of room in there for a good deal for existing shareholders. Like you, I want it yesterday but if it can't be yesterday, lets have it in the next 3 days (or failing that next 3 weeks)!

Maybe I didn't answer the question clearly. I expect there never to be a dividend. But for good reasons :)

dividend is super hard because of course, as the company is developing the assets, it can spend its own cashflow or fund via other means (which might dilute or offer less good terms). So I suspect dividend not for a good while yet because as shareholders we prefer the 10p/sh year in value add over 3p divi the company could shell out but then not produce the 10p/sh value add it can with the money.

So sadly, I am holding for 'no dividend' policy till 2026 and that's how I've planned my other finances. With Vermelho and Araguaia producing then they will be paying off capex (the structure of the finance for Vermelho is of course really unknown if this comes from the senior partner coffers) but by then it should allow the introduction of dividend.

I'm expecting a much bigger dividend than 2p eventually. But well before that I expect the company to get sold so it is moot.

as an addendum, there is a serious risk that investors (me included, to date) focus on the equity raise and equity raise price excessively. Yes, it matters ( a bit) both short term and long term. But so much more important to the long term valuation of this company, and by implications - its shareprice - is:

- the price of nickel. We are hugely leveraged to the price of nickel which will by almost any study be in serious deficit in the second half of the decade
- the market valuation of companies which supply commodities which are in deficit! We know that during these cycles, the valuations can reach multiples of steady state or bear market valuations. This is of course what we are anticipating later this decade for nickel producers.

So for my money we should focus less on what we have been obsessing over - the price of equity - and focus more on the future for the commodity and the company. And that brings me full circle to the last thing I believe to be very very significant here - instead of the equity price taken by the strategic investor, the entity of the strategic investor is hugely more significant. Because it will tell us a lot about what is in store for the company itself and the development timelines of its assets.