Member Info for wasarunner

Or 4p per share at current issued capital. Which is insane. If we were producing yesterdays nickel price rise should have equated to roughly 4p rise in SP at P/E 10x. Obviously we're not producing but still.....hopefully will be in 2 years or so!

At production using 10x P/E (which might be optimistic but makes the maths easy) $1k/t uplift in nickel price, like we saw yesterday, equates to $14.5m USD EBITDA extra, which assuming CT 34% (this may be wrong) results in £65m extra mcap. Or half of our mcap today. Just on the extra $1k/t, and just on line 1 of Araguaia. Insane leverage to nickel price - and I expect higher at production. GLA

pp agree biggest risk is offer before rerate due to finance. When we get financed at least the offer will have to be multiple of 15p not multiple of 8p. I actually see the m&a activity and v rapidly rising nickel price as a potential risk we get taken out earlier tjan we would like. Would be better to eke out a couple more years independent foe a better eventual sale price....

Strategic Investor either protects us from early T/O or effects an early T/O IMO. We find out which, I suspect, when we find out who it is. Could there be a short window for a bid before the equity is finalised? If the equity is presented to market as 'deal done' with the Strategic, then no. I suspect the latter so if someone wants early T/O they better be placing their bid right now because as Craig says we can't be too far from the equity now.

Salmonn re: Araguaia agree 100% fcf would not be enough to build it on 18-24 months and I made the point when the debt for A1 was announced that the same ECA ( lets face it Line 2 should require same furnace, same diggers) would cover 60% of the capex and by thqt point the missing $100m should be easy to finance (eiyher from fcf or something else). If we can have 29kt/yr production From Araguaia/yr starting from 2025 I am super happy - nickel prices shpuld be really high with deficit kicking in around then.

Seller on HZM 2p. No more seller on HZM 8p.
Seller on ACP 5p. No more seller on ACP 20p.
My algo is simple. When seller is around -> buy -> wait (doesn't matter 3 months/2 years whatever) -> make money -> laugh all the way to the bank. We got time, no rush Matt. I'll take all Mr Kabunga's shares, I just need time to do it....

Unknowns are the level of equity and what value the market will ascribe to A2 and Vermelho once we are financed IMO. You _should_ get some value for A2 as the intention is to finance from FCF so that path is clear once the initial finance lands but will we, I don't know. There is a hell of a difference between % of $1bn NPV (A1) and % of $2bn NPV (A1+A2) so which will it be. At the risk of being accused by people on both sides of the 'optimism spectrum' of being either a ramper or de-ramper, my target remains 10-15p in the months following finance complete. 2.5bn-3bn share range makes that a possible £250m - £450m mcap range which is anything from 35-65% of A1 NPV.

Those are my calcs I may be way out either way we will see. Top end of that range is double todays SP just about, bottom end is +25%. Longer term as the mine is built and we get Vermelho updates of course I expect the SP to rise and with nickel price.

If the market immediately jumps us up and values in Vermelho and A2 as we have proven we can get finance for such projects, happy days. If the cornerstone is a really big player and immediately adds to our mcap, likewise. If the JV on Vermelho is announced now, also upside there. If an offer lands - well we saw what happened with the Australian company when BHP came knocking. So lots of upsides - my estimate is just 'base case'. GLA

It is a good chat board and it takes both buyers and sellers to make a market! I think once finance is done we will hopefully have a lot more ii buyers and not just the old/new faithful PIs propping up the price. Clearly I've been net buyer in last 3 years as holding shows and a lot of were buying when there was an awful lot of uncertainty (during Covid, when institutions were bailing - why? etc.) I have literally no problem with anybody selling. If nickel fundamentals remain, Horizonte's fundamental value will be well above where it is valued now, institutions will realise this and ultimately will set the price and we will be passengers to that price setting mechanism. At that point neither what we say or post on this board will make any difference, and neither will buying or selling 1m or so shares. ALthough hopefully by that stage selling or buying 1m shares will net (or cost) a lot more than it does today. GLA

I've got no beef with anybody (buying or selling) and seek to influence nobody. Each of our situations is circumstances driven. I bought when I thought it was cheap (5.9p, 8.5p, 7.6p) in the last few months. I sold one tranche so far and that was to buy another share, nothing on Horizonte's prospects. I don't try to trade it very simply because - I haven't a clue why the sp does what it does. No idea why it dropped to 5.9p. If I knew how these things worked short term I would make a lot of money trading it, like everyone else would. To me short term it is always binary - it can go up or it can go down. But I do believe when the financing is finalised, which I do think we will hear on shortly, it will go up. This 8p area looks quite cheap to me when you factor in the likely terms on the equity and what NPV it unlocks. I still think double figures post finance (but caveat I could be wrong, it's just my opinion).

I have modest first target around 30p (not that I'll sell at that point) long term I am much more interested in dividend. Anything >30p is a bonus as far as I'm concerned! I would really like to see this project through inc the underground mine (unless they sell the lot at some point of course - it can and often does happen)...

My divi target would be around 3p 'one day' which - well it's not loads but on 3m shares it pays the bills!

NOt really been keeping an eye as quite busy but was this the day high?
19,947.50
If so flirting with the $20k/t resistance again. Nice numbers to finalise financing with.

Also, on the macro, never seen a better environment for gold. Inflation is coming, it will be rampant, and central banks have 0 tools to fight it as the economies are on the knees and interest rate rise is out of the question with all the sov+company+personal debt that has been added through Covid. It's only a matter of time before we're over $2k/oz IMO and Goldstone will be minting it (literally). GLA

I added £40k today, close to my target 3m shares now, will add the remainder at some point to round it up and then long term (multi year hold) for me. The delay doesn't overly concern me, the principal shareholders have been supportive and the co has achieved a lot this year. Understand people's impatience but this year has enabled me to go 1->3m shares at pretty similar prices to my original investment so no complaints from me. In that time we've had substantial production figure upgrades etc. Comms could be better, agreed, but quality will out I prefer the co to be busy at work than beating the drums.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=202110121744398570O

Interesting to me (I don't know much about the company or project):
- Orion are the financier and
- Debt has a maturity period of four and a half years at LIBOR +7.5%

To me it shows just how bloody good the terms Horizonte got on their debt, both tenure and rate. Which will massively help cashflow and the construction of Stage 2 of Araguaia.

This is the great thing. It is no problem to Horizonte if there is an increase, or decrease in the demand for nickel. Being a lowest quartile cost producer, we can produce profitably when nickel demand drops to 600kt/annum vs current 2.5mt/annum. And at that point we would be supplying around or just under 10% of global supply. Less profitably, granted, but of course this is the unlikely scenario. The likely scenario is that 4mt/annum+ is a realistic eventual demand for nickel and you are going to need something like 80x(Araguaia+Vermelho) to supply it, and nickel will be priced much higher than today.

Ivor true, but awful big gap between 2.5m tonnes and 4+m tonnes needed by 2030. Will there be enough ready to go? And at what price point? I doubt it and we also know supply cant always match demand so price spike inevitable at some point. That might be time to take a bit of profit. Years away though and we might be sold by then.

But $20k today = $30k in 10 years time with $ deflation. Of course costs will rise also in $ terms. I do think nickel price inflation will outstrip currency deflation and that is my other main reason to invest here (other than it is bloody good value at todays Ni price). Gla

Unless I am mistaken (at times its hard not to misplace the odd 0 with Horizonte's huge numbers), the gearing looks a bit like this. On 2.5bn shares 50kt production, each $1000 increase in nickel price results in 2 us c per share inc in gross profit. Which is around 1.4p, call it ~1p after tax.

Unless I am mistaken taking capex as covered for the projects at $20k/t numbers, by the time nickel hits $28k/t Jeremy can pay us todays sp in dividend per year. 8 pence. Dividend. Per share. Per year. Worth mulling imo...

pickedpeck are you contactable? I am @wasarunner1 on twitter

Scout.
>>Are you serious about having 75% of portfolio in one AIM stock
Yes. But with the caveats! Plan B has to be 'not stocks' if you put 75% in one stock.