Member Info for wasarunner

>>I now know quite a few investors with relatively large positions prepared to hold 50%+ of PF value in Horizonte.
To which I would add - most I know derive their main income and have other assets elsewhere from other sources. I think that was the key thing here. It may appear that many eggs are in one basket but for e.g. my day to day life would be unaffected if I lost 100% of my Horizonte holding.

>> underperforming safety net
haha love it. Yes pretty much my view when I switched from FTSE to AIM. It hasn't been a bad move (so far, hope not speaking too early!) Interestingly I now know quite a few investors with relatively large positions prepared to hold 50%+ of PF value in Horizonte.

I guess moral of the story is, the higher risk investments (of which Horizonte was, but on a reducing path now) should be from money one can afford to lose and each of us has different means and different plan Bs. Probably a lot of novice investors put too much risk into too high risk investments (I surmise, I don't know) but you do read some horror stories. Not understanding the risk is probably one reason, and of course, the chasing the massive gains. I do like the risk/reward here, for me as you say, few like it.

pp if you don't mind me asking - is Horizonte your main stock investment and what % byval of portfolio? Apologies if this is O/T but I am interested how people weight it - it helps validate my assumptions of risk/reward etc. For transparency I'm always between 70-80% HZM these days the swings being mainly the market prices of this and the other stocks I own, I do shuffle a bit around the edges from time to time also (for e.g. I have added 0.9m horizonte in recent weeks). Unless something materially changes about the company, nickel, or Brazil, my aim is to retain this % holding at least (and hopefully % holding actually increases if Horizonte outperforms the rest) with for me a de-risk point being when we have a clear path to what happens to Vermelho.

Burleigh I would say this has been quite a grown up board over the last few years and the discussion is pretty reasoned. My personal view is blatant ramping is as bad as blatant de-ramping and I would say we haven't had much of either. With Horizonte I think it is important as pickedpeck says to understand and quantify if possible the risks before investing, these risks have certainly reduced a lot in the 3 years I've been invested. However, and at the risk of being accused again of sounding greedy, we are obviously all here for the upside so a focus on where nickel is headed, which type of supply will meet it (ferronickel vs battery nickel vs HPAL, nickel matte etc) and what optionality Horizonte have, cost of production, capex and how we get financed, then opex the equation is really complex. Nobody here has a crystal ball, and even those who claim they do couldn't see the worst pandemic in 3 generations (and on some financial measures the sharpest short term contraction in 300 years?) so clearly black swan events exist (and could strike again).

I hope the board stays civil but we don't know when Horizonte suddenly becomes the next AIM company which becomes flavour of the month (we assume around financing that can happen if the rerate is big) it may descend into what I've seen elsewhere - my experience of this was the ARB and EUA boards where I was invested in both at various points and it becomes a daily slanging match and eventually you can't take it and switch off. Hopefully doesn't happen here.

There's lots of useful information we've all picked up over the years and hopefully can communicate to new investors who might be interested in the stock, particularly links the Horizonte's own published materials with the salient facts. I was always told where a producer sits on the cost curve is absolutely fundamental in investing in miners yet we don't see this discussed too often here (obviously it is baked into NPV) that Horizonte (BOTH Araguaia and Vermelho) are bottom quartile on cost. This for e.g. is very important to stress to new investors - Horizonte makes money in just about any nickel market, and in a bullish nickel market, it makes much more money than most. As good a reason for investing in it as any, and perhaps the main reason. That and of course current valuation which is still peanuts relative to potential.

Ollywoo interesting I checked back (I have only been invested 3.5 years) 8 years ago ~2013 the shareprice was roughly what it is now ~7p area (in fact higher at start of 2013 it was over 10p). Average weighted number of shares in issue was 382m shares in the 2013 annual report. So we have ~4.5x as many shares now at similar shareprice so mcap is up by 4.5x reflecting the progress the company has made. I guess the nickel bear cycle didn't help in the interim, maximum respect for everyone who held their shares for this long during that particular cycle and the uncertainty there must have been that it was ever coming back up!

The real coup (for existing holders) in this financing round will be if Horizonte manage to land some big names insti's to the register, but the big names are starved of size because the cornerstone takes the overweight position. This is the best case scenario IMO. Offer bugger all equity to the wider market, get cornerstone and big insti on the books at a solid placing price (premium ideally), the the big insti will soak up further PI sells as the price rises.

The big insti buying in will of course as part of their DD have a pretty strong view on Horizonte's existing capital structure and shareholder register. They will have a good guess at how much they might be able to buy post financing and what price that might be. As Bwana says their best bet might be to already be buying now, but perhaps they can't do that if the wider terms of the financing deal have been disclosed to them making them party to sensitive information.

We will see. I would love it if big insti wants in but can't get the size they want. If we all don't sell to them, up go the price will. GLA

pp excellent post (as always). On two weaknesses I believe we will have closure and then further developments rapidly,

Weaknesses
Equity dilution unknown.
Lack of new institutional investors.

Equity will close (October/November?) So a 2 month wait to remove this from weaknesses.
In the next round I feel we WILL have further insti interest, probably big players (Tier 1 keeps getting mentioned all the time). And thereafter further interest 3-6 month view.

If I was Horizonte BOD wanting to close this deal 100% for all components of financing would I be doing random placing to market, selling some to weak hand PIs or would I be trying to place the remaining equity which isn't going to the strategic investor with top draw institutions who will then add further for their own book or for clients? I would imagine the latter, particularly as the price and size can be 100% guaranteed. So I think new insti's are nailed on in this financing round. Unless the cornerstone takes it all, which is not out of the question.

MiningInvest - if you're new to investing generally but know the domain. I would say it becomes a hell of a lot easier once you are in clean profit and unlikely to retrace to being 'underwater'. For e.g. on my investment in Horizonte on a daily basis it might swing from +250% up to +300% up and back again. That's easy to sleep on, much easier than +20% up to -20% down.

You want the low watermark to move higher than your average price. I do believe that is coming when financing gets signed off. Of course, if you continue to invest in the months ahead in the stock, you will continue to buy higher as the average price moves up so so does your average. But once a decent tranche of your investment is, and for the foreseeable future remains, 'in the money' it's a much easier game.

I don't mind buying 9p because most of mine are 3p. I can tolerate -30% drop on the ones I bought at 9p because I'm still 100% up ont he ones I bought at 3p etc. And over the years that's the direction this is moving. IMO.

Hi Totdy - I watch 'Gold Divers' and 'Gold Rush' so on a slightly more industrial scale, I believe it is the final stage of processing, whatever concentrate you have depending on the nature of your mining, the bit that separates out the gold from the other heavies. In this case because of the processing route that might be carbon bound not sure.

It's the how to get from this dense stuff containing a bunch of gold to -> just gold or close to just gold.

In the case of GRL I do believe Elution Process = Gold Room. Please correct me somebody if I'm wrong.

Somebody misses out here. Orion can do offtake, they have done it on other deals (and they already have their royalty) but can I see Orion getting the rump of the offtake if it is a single offtake deal? I think more likely Glencore. For the strategic investor, I still fancy a miner, so again, to me Orion isn't pole position for that. They may end up with nothing. I hope they put their hat in the ring though and pushed the prices up for the others. If the miners are respectively both the offtake and equity, I think we will get a good deal. They understand the space and they understand what's coming and how to price it. Teck were (rumoured to be) buying a producing mine in Brazil for $1bn USD with lesser credentials than Araguaia.

Apologies if this got mentioned before but on the BR interview (exerpt here):
https://twitter.com/HorizontePLC/status/1445996058492891136

Jeremy Martin mentions offtake 'with a leading industry player' - so it sounds like a single offtake deal? Someone prepared to take the lot? Has to be Glencore - surely? That's my money anyway. Doesn't rule them out from being the strategic investor of course but perhaps makes it more likely that is Teck then essentially agreeing the split of how to share the spoils here.

That's the problem short term nobody can call it short term (chartists maybe, traders maybe better than some) I never have been able to. I do believe we are well below where the next equity will happen. Long term cheap as chips. NPV at 2025 nickel is $7bn and the co has mcap £130m (today). Some/much of that gap will close, but not all in a straight line, and in years not weeks! I do expect the news maybe late this month early next month to put us firmly on the radar of many investors - that being the announcement of the 'who' is the strategic investor.

Hi Mininginvest, did you invest? When and at what price? I'm just curious because you either did, and are genuinely concerned by the drop (which is very possible), or I sense maybe your 4 posts or so to date you are on a perhaps subtle de-ramp? Nobody knows when it goes 10p+ but of course, the likelihood always was, we need full finance package for that to happen. Horizonte only delivered 2/3 of the finance package (but a very good 2/3 that was) the other week.

If your concern is genuine I wouldn't worry. Many of us have seen 1.7p and are pretty comfortable where this is going long term. Any entry sub 10p will be in money in years to come. And short term everything is always a gamble (hence why I never buy short term). Good luck.

There was Covid. It kind of messed things up a while.

Just to clarify - we are well below any level the strategic investor can take a strategic stake by any calculation I can make, SP wise, based on any realistic assumptions about how much equity they take, what price, and who else takes equity. Irrespective of the entity in question - Teck, Orion, Glencore, anybody else. And I don't think anyone else will get placed cheaper than the strategic investor. So in other words, we are in bargain basement territory. Happy days. Oh to have some more $ to buy with. Weeks (or days?) ahead of news and sellers heading for the doors, who would have thought it. Happy to take their shares all day long.

I am. In fact as of just now I added another ~0.4m shares and looking forward to when they are worth (gets calculator out) £200k. Shouldn't really need a calc for that but thereyou go....

Burleigh, your approach sounds very reasonable, I believe it is called averaging up on de-risk and news. I think experienced investors do this, I have tended to average down - I accept I am a relatively inexperienced investor albeit I have learnt a lot on the Horizonte journey. I am getting better - for e.g. I think 8p is good value right now with what we know, where previously I thought 4p was good value. You get less shares now but you obviously have less risk, as the journey inbetween down to the 1.7p levels evidenced. When the full financing terms here are known many/most on this board (me included) think there will be a rerate up. It will of course still be a good investment then as it will be execution risk only from that point onwards and still not rated at production values or 2024 nickel prices. Good luck building your position.

224 buy transactions on HZM for me, I just totted it up. Someone collecting fees and stamp duty has done well from those trades!

My first trade (I think) was 11/04/2018 'dipped my toe' for 35335 shares at a total consideration of £1,412. From small acorns do large positions grow as one becomes more confident in the company and fully researches the proposition.

pp obviously I was using 'half' as a proxy for 'another tranche' :) I wish I could keep adding HZM shares ^2 (to the power of 2 in case that doesn't post correctly) but sadly two things conspired against me - my income decreased over last 3 years and the Horizonte shareprice increased (neither happened in a straight line).

At the moment its a slow mo race between does our business sale complete before the next Horizonte RNS. Agonising. I wouldn't hesitate to buy at current prices, personally, complete nonsense drop given the terms of the CA and I anticipate more sophisticated investors than us lowly PIs to be quietly loading up from weak hands sellers. As Bwana points out, it is what they should be doing - they won't get much at the finance stage - not enough to go around once you factor the SI and any offtake.

Burleigh - I've been adding another half of my position regularly since 2018. I've forgotten how many 'halves' I now have but its a lot more than I set out to buy! Good luck. There's always a third half somewhere to be added.