Member Info for wasarunner

Backspace & Ivor - yes literally you have to decide 'how confident am I that the SP will be greater than 8p in 2023, and greater again in 2025'. That's the decision. How confident you are relative to your financial position dictates what you might be willing to invest. On those timeframes, and especially now, with what is going on in the market, I am super confident. I also reasonably regularly talk to the co, and people connected with the co. Therein lies extra confidence. I probably can't afford to lose 20m shares as much as you don't want to lose 2m. I don't know the SP next week - normally, I don't care, except to buy more if I think it's cheap. But now I don't have that anymore as I don't really have income. To answer the first question above, I think the SP will be north (well north) of 8p on those timeframes and I rate the chance as very very high indeed - not 100%, clearly, because that's impossible, but a good number certainly - above 90% in any case.

What we've seen, and it isn't easy, is that to stay invested you have to ride the waves, not panic when you're underwater, not get phased by delays etc.etc. nobody is claiming this is a stress free journey. But when I look at 10 year nickel price chart (and if anybody hasn't seen it recently, do have a look at that), and when I read the current M&A, and I look at which majors are already involved with Horizonte, I arrive at my probability that we will be worth much more than we are now on both medium and long view. GLA

Ivor - agree 100% I had this conversation with a phd student on the weekend, friend of mine. He has $10k USD invested and thinking about risk. I explained he can replace that loss in much less than a year of earnings/salary/whatever income if it all goes belly up. The larger the PF relative to your overall financial position (and mine is huge - I have effectively no more regular income) the more certainty you need of outcome. I am 100% confident now on Horizonte or I wouldn't have my position in it. This is really really important. There might be more money to be made on EUA, bitcoin, ARB, dodgecoin or literally anything else. But with position size, unless you really want to invest in 100 companies at 1% of your portfolio - for maximum gain I pick high probability, high (perhaps not the highest) return investments. Horizonte meets this grade. All IMHO. GLA

https://www.teck.com/news/news-releases/2021/teck-reports-unaudited-third-quarter-results-for-2021

$5.4bn liquidity in latest financial statement. What's $100m. All imho.

1200% seems a decent target to me. But 4000% is the rise from 2p -> 80p which I believe will be achieved sometime if we stay independent (and is what I'm in for). It might be hard to get 1200% rise from current price ~8.5p on Horizonte but I wouldn't rule it out completely. It looks like £1/sh which is doable certainly second half of this decade all things being equal.

Must be around 125k horizonte shares per £1m PF value, if it's 1% capital allocation and purchase price 8p ish..... or, it could be 0 of course.

Any de-ramping (which I'm not seeing btw just green boxes) would encourage me to buy more, personally. But maybe that's the contrarian plan anyway. Maybe sell means buy and buy means sell who knows. We got our deposit on bus sale but sadly the real deal now looks months away and will miss all the near term news. I stuck the deposit on ACP/GRL just as a portfolio balancing thing, I still see Horizonte as pick of the bunch on a 3-4yr+ view. I'm currently 66.66% (which is a bit random but just how it ended up) Horizonte by value and still over 20m inc family. I expect this to be back firmly into the 70-80% PF by value range when financing news lands here. GLA

I made some enquiries and 'they are very busy' is what I am hearing from my contacts - they being the BOD - read into it what you like, I read into it that the deal is happening and there is a lot to finalise. Timing as ever isn't a given but if they're too busy to talk to us - I take that as a good sign. GLA

People get twitchy close to the finishing line - human nature. It's like you get hungrier the closer you get to the restaurant. We got a similar situation on GRL, people very twitchy but the company has a lake (literally) of gold and just building the room to process it. Key being - they got the lake full of gold. So it is a happy situation not a sad one. On Horizonte, we have $346m of debt secured, the hard bit, the bit that took two years. The situation is a happy one, not a sad one. The rest will come. It will be this year. It won't be over the Christmas period. So absolute worst case around 6 weeks to wait. But probably less. It will be Turkey and Prosceccos all round this Christmas at the Horizonte table. GLA

Must be soon for news. I am seeing more and more green boxes here. Usually preceds good news.

Sj wouldn't worry too much about the sp. It's wrong. The market often gets it wrong. It was wrong at 2p and given what is going on right now in the market (nickel, m&a), and what horizonte have already told us, its wrong at 8p now. All imho. Oh and tesla is a trillion dollar mcap co..... (which is nuts. Suspect market got that wrong the other way but wtfdik).

Hi Tardis I believe moneysponge is doing a podcast with mb google sponge share etc. Obviously everyone hoping some news from co precedes it but if not hopefully an update on whats in the pipeline.

Debt + cash from warrants + cash from other investments + some equity (limited, I hope - speculation on twitter this will be very small % of overall mix), possible prepay on equipment (i.e. finance on the mining hardware), possibly offtakes (I think Blackrock got some prepay)?

Main thing is - I think equity will be small %. This is quite easy to finance mine, the IRR takes care of it. Hence I don't think MB is sweating it particularly. Also the capex payback is short - this means you don't particularly care about the interest rate on debt. Different paying 10-15% on debt over 15 years, than 1.5 years.

Your investment back YOY.
Without Vermelho.
Worth reiterating - that.

>> the outlook seems v good
StrangeAttractor - the outlook is indeed, once in a generation. Much, much better than v good :) Kind of like oil before it was a thing. Once the market wakes up - well Horizonte won't be independent but anyone investing now will have more $ in their pockets.
@Ivor
Well £250m EBITDA it looks like to me on C1 costs (I add $1k/t normally to cost in the DFS, just because). Then lump in CT, and that 8-10 year loan repayment. HALF of the EBITDA results in todays MCAP = 8p. But there will be more shares - how many more, lets go 2.5bn.

5p/sh net profit. 3p divi. 10x PE 50p. But for all of us investing at 3p, lets just have our investment back YOY thank you very much. I put £750k in, and happy with that as a return per annum once 2025-26 arrives. GLA

Ditto. Thanks Mr Kabunga! I added ~1.5m. Will do so again in November if he's still selling! GLA

Don't worry about nickel price or demand. Is whqt the IMF are saying. Check the price forecast for net zero!

https://mobile.twitter.com/hilldanr/status/1451273117356236801/photo/1

Hi Darloman - I did the EUA->Horizonte switch at a ratio of 3.5x HZM shares for EUA shares over a year ago I think! Just checked the EUA price currently <3x or thereabouts. I got a bet on with a mate that HZM overtakes EUA on SP in the near future, say this year! Good luck whatever you decide...

@Hazbeen
https://twitter.com/wasarunner1/status/1451086376124964866
Trying my damnest to get the numbers out there...

Market is uncertain over financing terms, that's a given. I was confident we would get financed at $17k/t so does $21k/t make a difference to my confidence - probably not loads. It is hard for the market to go 'what better terms on finance can we get for $4k/t uplift in Ni price' when we don't know what the terms are being negotiated. So in the sense that we can't translate the rise in nickel price into bottom line just yet, I do understand the disconnect and I do to some extent understand why our SP is not rising purely on nickel price.

However, when there is a bidding war on a smaller mine at many multiples of their SP and just about every mining major is currently evaluating or re-evaluating their priorities and portfolios of assets, you would assume Horizonte would be finding buyers purely for the 'what if we're next in the M&A' scenario. If I had only just come across Horizonte I would be buying at the current price, for sure.

Financing could be the key for us to start correlating better with the wider market sentiment. It can surely only be uncertainty over the terms which is holding us back? I'm pretty confident the terms will be good. I think equity will be done above todays price and the strategic investor will be a major. They may be making a bigger strategic investment in us than the market expects, too.

Biggest risk we have is staying independent right now I would say. At breakeven $7 or 8k/t it is impossible the mine doesn't get financed when Ni $21k/t. We are possibly at the point of maximum risk. I am actually for the first time really really hoping a T/O doesn't land right now as I think we will have a much stronger negotiating hand on Vermelho if Araguaia is built and producing. And Vermelho should be getting sold for insane money in a few years time. In that context the equity structure post finance is also important - does one player have first bid on Horizonte and can they block other bids? We find out soon.