Member Info for wasarunner

>>Wasa, 50% of npv of both mines would be acceptable.
Ivor I think that's around £1/sh at current Ni price (working off $5bn combined NPV). I would vote yes if that was put to shareholders (obviously) :)

0 chance we stay independent so only really a few of variables: 1. when, 2. in how many parts is it sold, and 3. (the one we care about most) for how much! GLA

Not selling I wait for decent profit before selling anything usually. This is 2023-24 for me. Thinking of adding actually. GLA

When I get funds I'll take a few million more off the impatient. That's a promise! Bargain all day at 5p and under. GLA

What amount of selling? Less shares have changed hands in the last trading month than in the 2 days after ML announcement. There's no volume / liquidity so traders wanting to move to the next 10 bagger are finding it hard to move out in profit. If anything Kabunga seems to have slowed down (dare I say it stopped?) As for the impatient well they're just impatient. Massive value disconnect here if you have funds (sadly, I don't).

The board could do what certain other boards do when their share price drops 'we are not aware of any material facts that should result in the recent drop in our SP and discussions with potential buyers who are as yet undisclosed and who as yet may or may not have actually made us an offer are going very well indeed'. But they're too professional to do that - this isn't a pump and dump outfit. Value will out in the end.

pp great numbers I've a little bit less than twice that myself, bit more than twice that if inc family. To be really honest I think everyone invested will do very well. I think the firesale scenario comes down to quality of directors and the support they can muster with II's PI's if a lowball offer comes in. Then the more important thing I reckon now is -> would any one major or financier be allowed to take it without opening to others for bids. As soon as there is multiple interest there will be a decent T/O price just because of where the nickel market is right now and where it is headed IMO. Maybe in 2018 that wouldn't have been the case but we're shortly into 2022 and nickel is now on investors radars - I don't think it gets sold cheap anymore. Ability to raise the debt was a big tick for the project economics so I think it's game on. Minimum 25-30p exit for me will do nicely (but like others, hoping for more and in for the long haul). GLA

Pp no I don't see much downside risk. Firesale price £500m the lot gets us 25-30p. That is my minimum expectation whether we stay independent or not. I know some people think it could sell for less but its not 2015 anymore and nickel isn't $9k/t so I politely disagree. So if anyone wants a minimum 3x with potential for much more on a 2-5yr view its as certain as they come. Execution risk in the build but hopefully pretty standard stuff assembling the rkef from flatpack and hopefully the elapsed time has given plenty of time to prep for the more complicated engineering to be ironed out. On Vermelho then pure upside however it gets developed. Its hard not to see a very good return on the $9m usd or so horizonte spent acquiring it. I am convinced there is still nothing in it in our sp.

Maybe Glencore are buying the wrong shares. They wanted to buy their own but have accidentally bought some Horizonte (which they also already own some of of course). Hence the rise.

On an aside I've worked out the reason for the buying action. Apparently people think a financing deal could be close :) I'll stop now... come on JM, wait 2 more days for SJ to get his money and propel us to new heights.

Leathal - 20p+ but 14months+ (I expect first production at earliest Jan 23) Good luck with your decision. In 12 months from now we're hopefully putting finishing touches on a mine. Which would be amazing, considering we haven't financed yet, but I expect very rapid progress on financing.

Hi Leathal, the seller is former business partner Kabunga (Holdings?) Kabunga is funding his venture in Volt an Oz based Tanzanian chap. He had a large % and warrants and has slowly been converting warrants and selling down positions to fund Volt. This has hammered the price, every piece of news got sold down since I've been invested. Slowly his position is diminishing however. I can't recall the latest numbers but the warrants are due to be cashed by Feb/March next year (in time for the mine build).

Finance deal is definitely to be done and I do believe can be wrapped up quite quickly, I suspect elements of it are being negotiated right now hence the radio silence. I believe it will be majority debt funded, then for the remainder:
- Blackrock got prepay offtake, we may/may not get some
- There could be more equity but there are HNWI's invested here who can probably look to fund rather than a general placing
- Finance terms on equipment purchase is another thing I heard could be used to bridge the funding gap (i.e. buy equipment pay from revenue).

The thing that makes finance easy here is the relative value of the production numbers against the capex. Matt Bull went for a low capex mine easy to fund with options later to expand. It is quite sensible strategy for a junior company.

As I said the valuation gap will close but people have to be prepared to hold till production (I am hopeful but not certain of a decent rerate on finance complete) so I have positioned my ACP holding not to need to sell a single share till production. It's the safest way. I expect first production around Jan 23 -> 14 months away now.

SJ someone one twitter pointed out just raising the basket to the blackrock numbers $1300 even before further optimisation produces NPV $564m ~£400m GBP. That's pre tax but even at 50% NPV with 600m shares you are looking at 33.3p. And:
a. further optimisation is possible
b. it's quarter of the resource! A buyer will be very interested in the total contained resource and will pay premium
c. 33.3p is 7x (perhaps on an 18 month view)

Assuming $600m NPV pre tax is achievable I think we are trading at 6% NPV at the moment. Which I might understand if this was an impossible to finance mine - but it isn't. From what I understand, quite straightforward. $39m is quite easy to pay down from the production numbers here.

TripleC I do understand investor frustration especially when a companies public comms is poor (armadale's is non existent nearly). It does create opportunity I also have more direct comms so am satisfied of a positive outcome. Patience is also hard I have had to learn that on other stocks. On this one I have it from the horses mouth so to speak we will be building a mine here next year and that's good enough for me. Substitution doesn't concern me overly such a scramble for battery materials and we will build a mine in 1 years not 5 years I think graphite demand will be just fine.

I've seen the insti selling on other shares and benefited and that's what is going on here. There is simply no reason for the valuation gap between blackrock and armadale, not 3x or 4x anyway (poor comms and institutional selling aside) but fundamentals will out for the patient. They always do (eventually). I thought I would make a dent in Kabunga sales by taking 9m shares but the nature of this kind of bulk selling is it does take a long time to churn. Still, I consider it opportunity others see it differently. Gla

Sorry spring 22 for production early 23. I always do that as we get nearer to end of a year!

Hi SJ, have a look at the following (sorry on phone cant link things easily):
Investor presentation 2021-09-05 on company websitr. Consider npv $430m is pessimistic as it doesnt have a revised graphite basket cost, real npv over $500m. Capex is $39m and can mostly be funded by debt. Therefore we expect minimal further dilution

Our neighbour blackrock have mcap around £110m at similar stage, armadale is £29m. Armadale has better grades, blackrock are pitching a bigger mine bigger capex. Armadale is pitching a mine for quarter of the resource estimate.

So you have a ridiculous return project (91% irr), with easy to fund capex. My expectations are eventual 600-700m shares in issue and minimum post tax npv 50% africa factor min 20p sp more likely 30p+ at production.

We have had an institutional seller here for a long time whoch has hampered sp and confidence, so pi's also sold up and moved to fastest risers. Some will be back its the merry go round after all. My average is around 4p pre licence so the fact we have 4.8-5p area now is still very very cheap. Even 10p would see us closer to 50% of blackrocks valuation!

Timescales wise I have been told we expect to be building a mine spring 21 for production early 22. Finance should be close to a walk in the park. Comms (at least public comms) has been poor, so this is not a beats the drums share. But the value is there. Hopefully thats a starter.

My genuine expectation is 10-15p financed and building mine, 20p-30p a year later. Then eventually a chinese buy out. I got around 9m and if I get more funds before serious news lands will add here - this is the most undervalued stock I follow for proximity to development. Gla

I am close to principals on both acp and grl hence confident of outcome, as confident as it is ever possible to be of course. Confident on horizonte too. At some point probability of outcome trumps absolute multiples but ironically all three of these have really good multiples ahead at what I judge to be relatively low risk.

SJ, acp is a min 5x on1-2yr view. The most undervalued in my pf at the moment, and 100% gets sold to the chinese in a timeframe where graphite is still needed. Grl of you like gold (I do) is a min 2x next year and 3-4x of they can extend mine life, 1-2yr.

Horizonte still pick of thr bunch for me long term I think 6-10x from current level but I dont think we make it independent so it may come back to similar multiples as the two above, in thr timegrames above.

Both acp and grl have the potential to 10x but that is a longer timeframe and yhrrefore more unknowns. Giod luck with your choices, so much good value to be had on aim if you are patient. Been chatting to a frw knowledgeable people and all the retail money is chasing crypto/nasdaq etc. When us tech pops I think it will come looking for gold etc. Gla

SJ good luck getting your cash in ahead of the finance rns. I remember thinking same thing in Feb when I put mine in! How time flies. Got to be very close now surely. We're in q8 on Monday (second half of q4)!

Yes thats my point. Its bugger all. Dont get much electric pylon or road or even JM salary for £4m. Its a holding position in my opinion - either till finance is complete and they can start drawing the big money, or until the offer is firmed up.

Do you think finance rns is imminent or an offer? What I find odd is cash isnt being spent. But perhaps they cant spend all the cash until finance is in the bag as they are over a barrel otherwise?

Definitely For Sale