Member Info for wasarunner

Akrokeri is further potential upside of course. But lets walk before we try to run.

IF (the million dollar question of course) they deliver on a plan to get to 50koz at 1000usd gp per oz. Then £35m ebitda should be worth £200m mcap or around 40p. So my expectation is that IF they deliver to plan we will be at least 2x, 3x, or 4x in due course.

Of course while they sort out the production issues they need to pay costs so some risk. But I remain invested with 5m shares now and will only review if really bad news lands. Otherwise just a patience game. Gla

Yes in retrospect it was naive to think the deal could be done 'at premium' to prevailing price. Perhaps. I assumed it could because nickel is such a sought after material and Horizonte would be such a low cost producer. Agree it is a bargain now but on a longer trajectory as there are now so many more shares in issue. Probably some execution risk in the build (which hopefully has started - surprised we haven't had an RNS in January?) Nickel fundamentals remain and now the company has to build the mine that is the investment case for some multiples of the existing price - Orion and La Mancha certainly didn't invest at 7p to get their money back + inflation so we trust their DD suggests we will be a lot higher at production. It remains not without risk but obviously raised a great deal of $$$ above the minimum required to build the mine so there is financial contingency assuming they can get the timeframe right. I will hold to production and beyond. My target is anywhere between 15-30p depending on what happens with A2 and Vermelho. On a timeframe between 2024-26. GLA

Happy NY SJ! Agreed, fundamentals aren't everything the market has a mind of its own so it's best not to need any money from it anytime soon and always safest to invest with the long game in mind. That said, when we're fully financed here (say, March, April latest? if we're on track) it's hard not to see how our mcap wouldn't be _minimum) £60-70m i.e. 10p+ if Blackrock are managing £110m or so without full finance landed? Granted they are raising more money but that's because their capex is more - capex being low should be an advantage not a disadvantage!

Anyways how the market values us is one thing what it's worth is a completely different thing but if you can hold till production value will come good. The beauty of this project is we should be producing in 12-18 months and not many many years down the line unlike some.

For ref like you I continue to hold Horizonte my timescale on that is much longer, say 2026+ (and there will be a lot of value generated). Just feel this will be much much quicker and is also very undervalued relative to peers.

on that note I'm sure I've provided an opportunity with at least some buys for some to exit (or trade it even) but as I said I don't mind. But it doesn't have to be one buyer moving it up who then dumps their shares, I definitely haven't done that but I have seen the price drop after I have bought etc. Sellers provide liquidity so got to thank them for that.

SJ I and some I see on twitter were buying in late December. Some of my buys pushed the price up. I didn't want to post too much as had more in mind but my other trade went against me. So believe it or not there are still plenty who see value at this juncture and are buying, that does raise the price when the systematic seller isn't around.

Whether traders then take advantage of the 10-20% rise - obviously some will particularly when the rest of AIM is pretty tanked plenty of other bargains about to move your money into it. Personally I don't care if it sells down if I got the entry I wanted as I'm holding and not here for 10 or 20%.

I added 1.85m in December, 3.44m in November and 1.72m in October. Last time I sold any was a few in September and a few in May mainly to move money between accounts (then re-buy). So there are a few buyers as well as sellers. Just go about it quietly and enjoy the opportunity while there is no news, this is still the 'build the position' time on this share but for how much longer.

My average purchase price post ML is around 0.45p more than my average purchase price pre ML which IMO is barmy (~10%) particularly since the graphite macro has improved (just look at Blackrocks sp over that period). Got to thank the sellers.

All that said, looking forward to newsflow in this quarter. It's only a good investment if stuff happens with it eventually, asset in the ground is only worth so much etc.

nodinero any idea why Frewen resigned? It was well before I was invested. Thanks. I note Matt Bull was involved with the company since 2016 so there must have been an overlap (appreciate different roles).

Ditto I expect end Q1 (latest) finance to be sorted. That is clearly a relatively short timeframe now so news can land thick and fast. You just aren't going to be building in May if you haven't got your cash in the bank to build with by end March. Personal view and may be 100% wrong - this is a double (10p+) on finance done and dusted so around 3-4 months and then another double at production (and I am allowing a bit of slippage factor for production) so stick my neck out say we are producing after rainy season 2023 - 20p around May 2023. Hopefully sooner. As I said, could be wrong, have been wrong before but that is my median case right there.

https://twitter.com/winenfunblog/status/1476231695389138944

FlyNavy on twitter makes a really good case comparing it to other graphite projects. Armadale comes out just about top on every measure.

For my side I wanted one more top up before New Year but my trade on argo has gone a bit wrong so will have to stick with that. Got close to 15m shares so just greedy really but greed is what makes wealth so not too ashamed about it. Read up on Tanzania rainy season Mar-May, so I think we have to have finance done and dusted here by mid March which gives us a huge 10 weeks for newsflow if Matt is gunning for build start (as hiring the mine director suggests). Much much worse places to be invested in 2022 which will be a transformational year for the company. Graphite macro also couldn't be better. Bring it on. GLA

because the stock exchange doesn't publish the data (on whether it was a buy or a sell) so websites like this interpret the execution price against bid/ask at the time to 'guess' which it was. It can be wildly wrong a lot of the time especially for illiquid shares.

Guys just to balance it - many sell and fair play to them for reasons as they see them be it personal or what they foresee for the company. Since september I think I have added avout 6m shares and now hold 14m. So I am happy to buy off Kabunga and any other sellers for whatever their reasons. I see a lot of value at these levels. I am not intending to sell any shares at all here till production. Key for me:
Mb skin in the game and from convos stated intention to minimise dilution
Graphite fundamentals, inflation, global macro, chine chasing commodities
Mine economics low capex irr payback etc
The example blackrock is setting and possible shared infrastructure etc ( ie armadale wont have to fund all peripheral infrastructure)
I am super positive here and will keep adding when/if I can. I will never and cant get to mb or kabunga holdings but very much aim to be a sticky holder for the journey.
My investments always with a 2025+ view but firmly believe this one will deliver much sooner.
Gla

Huge signal for me (and the thing I am most excited about) is the purchase of that plant. It has been slightly lost in the bigger news of course of the $633m raise and the sp shenanigans since. But make no mistake - even with the enlarged share capital, if Hotizonte can 'self finance' (by which I mean - no equity, possibly debt) A2 to come in short order after A1 - i.e. - start building A2 immediately after or within a year of completing A1 - this is a compelling investment on my original timeframe of 4-5 years. That is pretty exciting news. But of course only worth getting really excited about in 2 years time...

Dbcee mine build is 8-12 months and the planned tulimeframe is start build after rainy season plus finance is required so there was never any doubt there wouldn't be anything out of the ground before next dec? I am invested on the basis of production start early 2023. Gla

Here and present! Been busy w business sale which went through this week. Not that much to say about horizonte at this point (and market generally bad on aim) so judt looking fed to new year and start of mine build. My main focus at the moment here is plans for a2 which we will see developing during a1 build and of course news on what kind of dfs they are planning for verm. Horizonte is kind of bottom draw for me now for a few years!

I was tempted to add this week when sale completed but held off for now just because I think a bit of stagnation may still happen for a bit while the shares are admitted etc. Other prospects may move a bit quicker then a switch over but if not - I have plenty here! Gla. Fwiw I remain bullish but this is a lth for me, not expecting miracles now short term.

I can see the FED being relevant to Horizonte but the FED also often gets it wrong as it is just a forecast after all. Economists seem to get forecasts wrong all the time. Like - we were meant to be gradually reverting interest rates from the 2008 lows and the coronavirus stuck and now they will literally never go back up and we will have neverending inflation forever.....which is obviously great for nickel price.

what silence :) RNS

I think the 73-75koz figure is the 'ramped up' (and I don't mean BB context of 'ramped') figure. It is normal for explorers moving to production to achieve a staged or gradual ramp up to full scale production. My reading is that the 25koz figure was for 8 months only thereafter increased both rate and full year of production. Of course, 2021 ended up going not to plan. Lets see what 2022 brings. Perhaps we only get 'full' 75koz numbers in 2023, I don't mind, I can wait, gold will be higher then anyway.

I'll rephrase then. You're prepared to miss out on investment because you insist on 9p. But if it's 3x or 4x from 11p you are prepared to miss out on 3x or 4x by insisting on 4x or 5x. It doesn't make sense. They pour a proper amount of gold you won't see single digits - ever. At the moment, possible. Decent gold pour, impossible. I will also add in single digits if we ever get there.

You'll never buy because you don't believe in the stock. If it isn't value at 11p why is it value at 9p? Etc.

Excellent AIMtodeath brought the convo back 'on topic'!
I ditto what he says, of course ACP is as good as if not better than the other two - it is where I have put a lot of my money this year. Fundamentals for graphite look better and better on a short/medium term and this mine was always a very lucrative build, mcap hasn't kept abreast with progression I suspect because of a. stale holders and b. the Kabunga cannon. Roll on news...