Member Info for wasarunner

On a serious note 2-3p divi is my target here on a core holding of 5m shares. I think that is very achievable with what Goldstone has roadmapped. Given my initial entries around 10p area a few at 13p I am looking for a payback over about 3-5 years and I think that is very doable. I don't know how soon we can get a divi but 2024 seems realistic, spend next year ramping up and funding Akrokeri mine then perhaps dividends 2024 failing that 2025. I am quite bullish on gold prices in the next few years which would obviously help FCF. GLA

haha I made it up of course! But on 450m (ish) shares it's £9m. Given that we are forecast to produce net profit _this year_ (before debt payback) of £10m GBP ($20k oz, $1k/oz gross profit, apply Ghana 35%CT ~$13m net profit = £10m net profit), on the 'unexpanded' mine, without Akrokeri and without an improved gold price, I figure in a couple of years time 2p is a realistic dividend for Goldstone to be throwing off.

This is not a random plan - I'm going to be trying to make a living off dividends in 2-3 years time and this company is a cornerstone of that plan. But 2p is plucked out of the air but I feel is realistic in due course. Which makes 9p today of course a bargain...

really like the idea of the 2p divi on the 6m shares...pays for itself in 5 years.

Might aim for another +1m holding if we stay below 10p for long

These are the numbers I'm interested in:
Updated guidance 18.5k-23.5k oz 2022 production (from the wording seems to exclude what's already produced).
Assume 6 weekly pours, over remaining 9 months giving 6 pours.
Assume next pour is 65% by end of year 82%.
Whichever way you slice it that produces 3-4 koz per pour.
Which is $6m-$8m gross revenues.
Which is 1.5x or 2x of the outstanding debt _per pour_.

So if you believe the guidance (and there are plenty of sceptics, I understand that), then $6-$8m per pour and the ability to payback outstanding debt with a single pour is not too shabby place to be.

The news today is much better than the market will give it credit for. Some who want to take profit or just can't be bothered waiting for the jam will sell that's normal. I've only just had time to really go through the RNS in detail and there is an awful lot going on:
- a company which is not confident that existing production will pay for opex _will not_ invest cash into expansion. Yet already we are investing cash into not only pit 3 at Homase but also drilling Akrokeri. This tells me 100% they are confident in the recoveries and making the gold loan payments from Homase and
- if they discover no more gold at all, and assume they can mine out the 600koz JORC resource at 50% gross profit. You are looking at something like £300m after tax. If you spend £0 of that on expansion you distribute that to shareholders you have distributed ~60p per share. It may take you 5-10+ years to mine it all out but hell I'll happily take my 5-10p a year dividend.
- but expansion at Homase is almost a given, and mining at Akrokeri is also more than a distinct possibility.

Not a lot not to like. Looking forward to the rest of 2022 it is going to be a cracker for Goldstone. Did anyone mention gold prices likely increasing? Forgot that bit...I can't see how we don't get to $2.5k/oz at some point with inflation in the west running at anything from 7-10%+.

One final reason I wouldn't sell even if I could - the majority of the company is tightly held there is relatively low liquidity at the margin. I just won't be able to build my holding again and this is quite a hard share to buy when the news isn't bad and PIs aren't offloading. I do think in a rising gold market and with positive newsflow it will be hard to buy, especially 'cheap' as we are right now.

Maybe an opportunity presently to buy while the traders move out and we may fall back a bit but over time this gets harder to do.

Also it's pretty obvious which outcome the principal investors here (AIMS etc) are in for. Very much the 300-400% I reckon.

If you bought at 8p seeing the opportunity for short term I get it you move your money on. But if you are invested here for what is to come today is definitely not a day to sell! Just de-risked bigtime. We will be debt free by mid year then all the FCF can be spent expanding production and bringing Akrokeri online.

You take 20% upside today or remaining 300%-400% upside in 2 years. I don't have a problem with either just more interested in the latter!

And following my own advice will continue to hold my 5m shares for those numbers. Not selling a bean. Gla

20koz is the start, they eventually hope for 50-75koz production from homase alone then slap on akrokeri. This can get to £250m+ mcap easy in a rising gold market in years to come. We are just at the beginning. My 2 year target (from now) is 30-50p and whatever divis they can start paying when fully expanded. Gla

Thanks Devil. I imagine also some of the warrant holders (Kabunga excluded) will be sticky holders too so the April warrants and September warrants may be tightly held shares once converted. By then I would expect we should have a clear timeline for development at which point why would one sell.

SJ I actyally think in terms of price action this will be similar to horizonte. Maybe doubles on finance 8-10p £50m mcap area. But the jam is obviously at production (both companies). The equation then becomes how many 'aim investors' are happy with double and how many wait another year maybe more for another double+. I think now on acp there will be a lot of sticky hands - mb friends+family apparently 25% ish and there are some telegram groups I think where another 15% plus (perhaps Bwana can correct me on that number). There will be sellers on news also of course its how aim works. I'm happy to wait till production because real $ earnings are real $ earnings its hard to argue with cash in bank/divis when considering valuations.

I think a lot of bored money has left already. This share sat at 4p a real long time for many aim investors who probably moved it elsewhere.

Depends on deal obviously, I imagine the major shareholders here would prefer cash in sale and the deal is with them so I would expect a sale would then return xp per share. When majors buy sometime you can get shares in the buying co instead of or as well as cash but because the majors have no selling liquidity issues you can just sell your shares for cash anyway.

I dont expect goldstone to get taken out soon though. You get maximum value for fully developed assets we are probably a couple of years away from that. At that point dividend or sale, personally dont mind either. Lets get akrokeri producing and homase expanded then the bidders can offer proper money. I would be hoping 40-50p is possible here in due course (but perhaps years away). Gla

Also reduced horizonte a bit but only playing at the margins still remains >50% of pf. But we did sell our business and I put around 90% of the cash into armadale the rest in goldstone around £250k here maybe more. Plus keep finding bits and pieces here and there and I do believe of the three I am invested in acp has the highest potential multiple on a 1-2 yr view (my thinking is 20p is doable) so it is mainly what I am adding. Its all relative to your risk appetite for me horizonte is now a safer bet, albeit longer timeframe, whereas acp remains slightly riskier but higher gain over shorter timeframe. You places your chips. For me it is looking like worst case scenario acp comes online similar timeframe as hzm first prod but hzm will take many more years to forther develop assets. Plus debt of $350m vs what we will have here $35m ish. Fsster payback means faster divis/expansion etc.

SJ I have contact with both Bwana and Aim off bb. Both top fellows. People just got other things going on at times its hard to be 100% into the stocks. Patience is also hard we all get frustrated at times.

I think this period has been an opportunity I know people are frustrated by apparent lack of progress since ml but the macro picture is improving all the time and if you believe this will get built (I do) then it has been a gift at 3.x 4.x 5.x in last 6 months. I am now around a third of mb holdings so whatever gain he makes per 1p rise I will make a third. Batten dosn for long haul here, even if 6 months or a year later (and I say if, I hope all on track) it matters not if the outcome is 15-20p+ at production. Gla

Orion will take 3x and not less imho. They know it is worth that at production and have placed trust in the bod to deliver that in what - 18-24 months from now. I don't think a buyer will get Horizonte for less than 15-20p/sh and hopefully at the top end of that (or more) Agree think we most likely get sold before (commercial) production but at some decent multiple of todays price. 4m tonnes at lowest quartile of production cost says so. Gla

Don't think he has sold a single share since I've been invested. It is immediately declarable if he does I think - all director dealings are. So when he sells we will know about it. I think he will be selling a lot higher, and when the mine is up and running, personally.

reasons to be optimistic:
- inflation in UK that I haven't seen in my lifetime is coming - best to be positioned in something that can keep up with it - gold as good as any (at $2k/oz right now but I suspect $2.5k/oz in due course)
- keep bleating on about it but effectively no debt in this company. Not a debt that can't be eliminated with 1 month gross production, two months net production. Compare that with companies with 10 year bonds etc.
- low cost producer (though costs to be confirmed of course)
- a producer. No more mine to build
I don't know what is going on behind the scenes except that they
a. reached production and
b. the second pour was better than the first pour which leads me to assume that
c. the third pour will be better than the second pour
Is there risk - of course - the alternative of course is to invest your money in a bank for 0.5% return. Except inflation is 8%-double figures% so that method is a guaranteed lose. GLA

Suspect it has to do with share availability too. I bought around 1.4m shares the other day and it was very difficult to fill orders - no sellers. So now the MMs have no shares to sell, maybe they fish for sellers (though to do that I would expect them to raise bid). Not much buying either but that can change quickly. This share can move very quickly when there are no sellers and when newsflow starts.

Suspect if I tried to add another 1.4m today (not that I can - no funds) we would get up to 4.5-5p range quite easily. They need to trigger sells to fill buy orders now.