Member Info for wasarunner

Alwaysone - pickedpeck did a great post the other night (admittedly from a pub!) that highlighted the potential 'maximal' upside of HZM and calculated 480p. He is also a large holder. We all of course think 480p is ideal return / conditions and of course Horizonte is much more likely to be taken out much sooner (perhaps sooner than we'd hope) but I reckon 99% of people who read this board would be happy with a number between my target of 30p and that ideal number of 480p.

Two risks remain here:
1. we get bought. It will be some multiple of todays price
2. company doesn't successfully build the first mine. Lets not dwell on that one :)

Teck sold to Glencore joey keep up :) Assume you are still invested here all good!

7p was the price Orion, La Mancha, and a bunch of third parties for the remainder paid. Hence we were stuck 6-7p for while while the hotter money cleared.

yeah so we went to close to 4bn shares from when I first invested 1.45bn. The return profile for many changed.
However since then it has also become obvious Nickel is a globally significant resource (look at what happened recently and with Russia a major producer what is likely happen longer term too). Todays announcement is like - Glencore further endorsing Horizonte's credentials.

We all know Vermelho is the 'even more significant' asset Horizonte hold and nobody really knows how it gets financed. But with partners onboard and keen, like Glencore, like Orion, like La Mancha who says it can't be done?

My goal here remains 30p and I am happy to wait to 2026+ to see it. Reckon upside possible from those numbers (if we stay independent which is my bigger doubt).

Alwaysone - calling it a fundraise though is maybe not describing it correctly. It wasn't just a raise to get a few $. It took a company I first invested in which had £50m mcap to raise $633m to build a $1bn+ NPV mine. It took an explorer into producer territory with a globally significant resource - so you don't get that many of those types of fundraises going through for companies of Horizonte's size. It was more of an IPO really - who believed this junior miner could build and operate a significant nickel mine. Orion did, La Mancha did, Glencore did.

11/04/2018
I call that long term by PI standards :)

Alwaysone - in a word - yes.
Market was pumped because we thought the finance package was coming Q4 company had confirmed it.
The equity was both more (in $ terms) than many expected and lower in pence/sh terms than people were expecting. Hence it fell to the raise price then was exacerbated by one of the parties to the raise shorting it (Maven).
Hence we fell to 6p area, some got disillusioned, sold.
Some re-evaluated long term goals and the return they would get with the enlarged share capital (more shares were issued than were already issued so effectively an IPO).
Long term fundamentals remain here however. Perhaps timescales elongated.

isn't there a gap to fill at 3p or something? I think Glencore just made sure it never gets filled. They think this is a bloody bargain at 7.2p and 7.3p then I'm not sure we will drop to those numbers again (unless we don't delivery a working mine of course but that's an entirely different scale of problem then)

It's not me but I know a lot of people are invested in a lot of the same sets of shares. Some buying here might be precipitated by a rise in another stock I follow closely :) With goldstone I suspect a lot of the buying/selling is PIs and there's only a finite set of money to go around so people take their 10-20% and move it to the stock that might next produce a result. Perhaps a bit of that kind of buying here today.

All good though and long may it continue. Really hope we're done with single digits for good. Not sure about my average but we should be thereabouts about now. GLA

This weekend? I am :) Not every year your main stock does +25% in 2-3 trading days leading up to a bank holiday.

But - the stale bulls are PIs with (relatively) smaller holdings than the institutions who sat up and took notice today have pockets. So perhaps this is the catalyst for institutionalising the register (assuming PIs sell) but we will see.

On the last significant shareholders list still:
Hargreaves Lansdown 277,092,053 7.29%
Interactive Investor 219,523,914 5.77%

Decent chunks in PI hands but surely many will now be holding for the long game?

Essentially investors in Glencore already think Glencore it is a good investment. That their good investment Glencore thinks Horizonte is a good investment is investment advice to those investors by proxy....

I didn't check it (until now) but the RNS has:
373,258,178
Previous Teck+Gen holdings
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/significant_shareholders/
210,207,179
163,101,098
So the RNS is sum of Glen+Teck previous holding +/- 50k shares. So I assume other trades are others.

But been thinking about it - now Glen have RNS'd the holding too. Surely 1000x instis invested in Glencore turn their attentions to HZM? It's like an advert to buy shares here :)

Shares are like buses. You sit at the same level for a year then 3 all rise at once (well in my case one is lagging but it will come - I see it down the road in the distance just pulled over to pick up a bit of news). Have a good weekend everyone - days like today remind you of why you are patient. You need to buy solid companies with decent management teams and great assets and results will come. We will get results here too I am as close as you can ever get to certain in this game, about that.

No I don't mean a T/O.

I mean of course - Horizonte's SP could surpass that of EUA. As a seller of EUA at a point of 3.5x of what I paid for Horizonte at the time it would make me look like I knew what I was doing. Whereas of course I had no clue the muppet would declare war etc. But still a valuable lesson - got to be careful with jurisdictions and keep an eye on the global political as well as macro picture when looking at your investments.

All the insti's who took £40m who only want 10-20% return.
More interesting is who is buying them. The buyer is aligning with Glencore (from the holding RNS apparently it isn't Glencore buying the rest?)

yeah nickel went to like $80k/t (until they shut the market :) And there we were fantasizing 3 years ago about $18k/t :)

I don't have L2 but it is encouraging that small buys are executing at just around 10p? Suggests to me not much stock available if the B&I was going through at 9p yesterday. Not many sellers is where we want to be (until much higher price of course) when news lands here.

mjb606 yes but 2 of those 3 are financiers looking for a return on their cash. The third is a producer of the commodity with like a 20-40 year forward view on where their resource is going to come from. In my view the first two will sell (at the right price) to the third. We might get to production but after that really it comes down to the return Orion/La Mancha want, and the price a major (could be Glen could be a.n.other) is prepared to offer. All IMHO

I don't understand why Glencore eventually wouldn't buy it. It's not like they don't 100% supply the commodity to a lot of the world that Horizonte will produce (ferronickel). Sure let Horizonte do the hard yards of building Araguaia (and perhaps doing the DFS on Vermelho). But why would you retain 10% when the buyout price will represent chump change in your overall B/S?

Doesn't mean of course there wouldn't be a counterbid Orion and La Mancha make the decision ultimately here. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if Glencore is first bidder at around when A1 goes properly live and perhaps the DFS is done for Veremlho. Or they could come with funding for Vermelho and increase their stake incrementally.

Nothing negative about todays development for Horizonte I would say. We all know eventually it gets sold right? Only three questions are a. when b. to whom and last but most imprtantly not least c. for how much :)