Member Info for wasarunner

We will see but they wouldn't be drilling Akrokeri if they weren't comfortable with Homase (producing and paying off the debt). Looking forward to that fcf and drill results in months to come! Btw I am not adverse to buying explorers with great assets - obviously - but we are moving into different territory with Goldstone now. This will be the first of my junior miners which will pay me a dividend I am confident of that. Really peiple should buy stocks for earnings - obviously with growth stocks we buy much earlier in the anticipation that one day they will have earnings!

I don't know much about GGP but isn't it being developed - ie no earnings? You can value a producing miner by earnings because it is cashflow and in the case of a company like Goldstone with 0 or nearly 0 debt it is pure cashflow. Valuation should be much easier assuming steady state. I'm really excited here about the fact that we are valued like an explorer but are producing. Just need confirmation of that - assuming quarterly reporting expecting news by end of June at the latest. Later the better personally speaking as I may have cash landing in June and I would readily buy more here at any price close to what we've got at the moment.

PopeUrbanII indeed tone of voice is very important and I spoke to MB on a few occasions last year and comfortable where the company is going. He can't talk now which I take as a good sign that there are discussions ongoing which can't be disclosed - and I respect that. Hopefully we have an update before/at the annual report time on progress in any case even if deals aren't closed on how things are going. I am waiting till after official news before attempting further contact but agree it is really good to talk to principals. It would be good if ACP could do some Q&A at some point once we have progressed a bit on the news front. Still feel the current SP is a mixture of lack of news, general market malaise and the warrant events. Which suits anyone who is willing to take the bet that this will deliver and has funds to add. GLA

SJ rather than an absolute number personally I focus on % of PF. For me now ACP has the potential to be the biggest holding by value if it goes in the direction I expect it to - on a 2-4 year view. I am really hoping it is a close race with my other 2 big holdings. At the moment in valuation terms it is below my other biggest holding but only just.

Risk/ Reward. My other biggest holding has I feel less risk but potentially this has more reward. There are mitigating factors both ways - one has secured funding but a more complex mine build and is 'owned' by banks, the other has no secured funding but form what I understand a **** easy mine to build and the funding requirement isn't huge. Permits are key and both are permitted.

Will graphite be needed in 2025? Yes. Will Armadale have built the mine? Yes. Will graphite be priced higher then than now? Almost certainly.

The best yardstick we have now of what value is here is that BKT is 6x our valuation. Even, say, they have 2x the mine we are worth 3x what we are priced at now. They are slightly ahead of us in progress, and massively ahead of us in comms but personally I don't care so much for the comms I care about progress. Comms can come behind the progress.

I stick my neck out and say this is 20p-35p £150m-£250m mcap in 2-4 years time then buying at 3.6p is a no brainer IMO. And so I did last week -> 19m+1m warrants is my position. I may add end of June I may have some more funds then that's my lot.

sorry already posted ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61310513

if we swap batteries instead of charging them. More batteries overall, I would think.

People I know hold srb so I know it is probably a very worthwhile investment I just dont know much about it. Sorry if my questions came across wrong. The mcap/sp in goldstones case is heavily supported by the fact a lot of it is insti held so pi is just trading the marginal shares. The main investors believe the value is there which is why we have £40m mcap on so far modest production figures but they should get a lot better. £100m mcap is not unreasonable for 23koz production assuming aisc can stay within range and gold stays 1800-2000/oz. We might start getting some value in sp for akrokeri once drill results land this summer. Wish I had funds would be adding. Gla

Do they need funding? Grl don't, or they wouldn't be drilling the second mine and we wouldn't have that reassurance on recent investor call. Genuine question I don't know the answer. There is also the possibility srb is a better investment than grl but that doesn't make grl a bad investment necessarily. Gla

Helpme post some stats (I don't follow srb but know some who do). What's lom? Whats debt, what's proven resource, aisc? Mcap only makes sense in that context? I am happy that goldstone is undervalued _assuming_ aisc is correct gold price is correct production can be met and gold price holds firm. I can't comment on the competition though as I haven't researched it. Jurisdiction is also important different jurisdiction gets a different outcome as I found out to my cost. Ghana is pretty good.

Giodstone can cover mcap in 3 years of profit in cash assuming no expansion and no akrokeri. It will take some companies 100 years-forever to a achieve the same thing and some of those companies are really popular investments.

3 months to finance mine 10 months to build it would be mid 2023, the earliest end of my expectation now, I don't know how the rainy season affects the build. 2023 still doable imho. As aim said the better the deal the longer the wait is worthwhile. 20p when built would be 5x+ from current level worth 13 month+ wait. Gla

my view (and I could be wrong):
1. no sell before it is built and producing. That's where the value is and that's what gets the principals their $$$ in returns
2. the sp will move when the conditions are right for it because actually it is quite tightly held. I can move the SP by 0.5p by buying £20 or £30k which is peanuts relative to the mcap. This morning it was really hard to buy went NT and I know I was competing against at least one other friend buying

So I don't se the gap to 6.25p as a big deal really but agree we do need news. I also happen to think MB has not been doing nothing since the ML landed and when the news is ready to release it he will release it. Has it taken this long because he wanted warrant money / kabunga out or just because the negotiations take a long time/govt in Tanzania is slow/there is a lot to do I don't know. We will get an update in due course. I am hoping for a bigger mine/partner there has to be an outside chance of that happening.

Either which way I've come around to other people's thinking that if you invest in these companies you have to stay the course to production to see your return and you have to pick ones that will get to production clearly if that's what you believe. Every de-risking event on every miner I've been invested in has been sold down (at least on AIM, seems not the case in Oz for instance) so the jam is at production. If you believe that then the next obvious question is when will Armadale be producing. When we last spoke to MB the date was early 2023, that date is likely to have been moved back a bit and that's really the main thing that matters now - will production be in 2023. I think it will, and can still be achieved, but we need news to convince us of that in the weeks/months ahead. I could live with it being later, perhaps others can't. I don't actually need the SP now to be above 4p I am more interested in the steps the company are taking to get to production. GLA

added 1.3m in last two days. In my view technical event (warrant sells) + lack of news + weak market sentiment is providing an opportunity to accumulate. No way this mine isn't getting built and no way the sp will be what it is now when it does.

someone sold a few (isn't me). MMs will punish people who exit in weak markets and mark the share down. I would be buying if had funds. I think today you could buy well below 9p.

I like glencore holding at 9.8% because they can only buy c7.5m shares before it is notifiable again at the 10% boundary. That means we find out pdq if they want to build up their position.

Another thing and I don't know if this is because people haven't run their own businesses before (I have). No debt is _huge_. (I consider $3m-$4m debt no debt because it can be serviced from pretty minimal production - at 18.5koz the company is expecting to produce $30m+ in gold this year). Why? Because immediately after or even before the debt is repaid, the company can already put FCF into expansion, and as soon as they are happy with expansion, into dividends. As an investor I am now not only pricing the company at that point on hypothetical future returns, I am actually seeing those returns. When? Hopefully not for a while yet as I want them to expand - I really like the idea of that 75koz number. 75koz at $1k/oz gross profit is $75m GP around £40m net profit. At a super modest 5x p/e that already supports a SP of 45p, at a p/e of 10x it supports a SP of 90p. More interestingly it supports a 9p potential dividend. Like the idea of your investment back (give or take - you can still buy this in the 9s today) year on year? I do :)

This is massive and the following needs to happen:
- get to steady state production based on the existing Homase plans
- expand Homase to the higher numbers drilling campaigns etc
- expand LOM so the market will buy a higher p/e valuation (it won't buy a steady state valuation if you will run out of resource in a small number of years)
- drill Akrokeri, hit the motherload, figure out how to finance that mine (ok the last bit I don't know but this is obviously icing on the cake anyway - if Homase can already support 75koz Akrokeri is really really just the cherry).

Rome wasn't built in a day - we will find out if the above comes to pass in the next couple of years. I'll take a punt - we'll get first divis in 2024 which suits me just fine.

Random thought but could we bring in a partner:
- Add equity to finance mix and help get mine finance
- Build a bigger mine so the effect of bringing in the partner would actually accelerate things and existing investors get the return they hoped for (only 1/4 of the resource is included in the current DFS)
- The right partner can bring other skills / resources to the table and can de-risk the project

This is a random musing of mine and I keep wondering it. MB is not daft he wants a big return but he can probably also do deals - he has many connections he is located in the right part of the world to do tie ups Oz is massive in this space and China is just there to do business with.

Anyway - this would be a pleasant reason why the process could be taking a while. I hasten to add I have no knowledge of this just random musings!

leathal - if it helps. I was invested in Horizonte and at one point (first wave of Covid) was £300k down. Not the companies fault but it was a scary moment for all because we didn't know what Covid would do (except it became obvious quickly that it would delay things). Maybe wisely maybe recklessly kept adding. Some of the 'profit' of that period is now invested here. How much? £20k clips I bought I sold for £85k so the return was good. Overall I am up a paper £1m+ on that investment (still hold a big chunk).

The moral of the story - for me - is this. Only buy solid companies with solid fundamentals (some friends and I dabbled with Covid stocks but it wasn't for me). Then it is just a patience game and being underwater is OK- sometimes more than OK if you have spare funds. Is Goldstone one of those? On fundamentals, categorically yes. If you can produce something for around half of what you can sell it for, and you have a lot of it (600koz is not bad $1bn+ at current prices), but I think this resource will be increased. So then it comes down to only one remaining thing and this is what many fret on _can the company deliver_.

There have been issues here no doubt about it. But Covid has also played a part in that. You ask yourself if Bruce T has delivered in the past. Yes. Have the main investors here been supportive restructuring finance to allow the company to breathe. Yes. Have the company got to production. Yes. To me now the downside risk is minimal and when that is the case you can almost completely ignore the shareprice. Sure we all want it higher but that will come.

My target now is a 'modest' 20p area by end of year - on expected 2022 production values that is very achievable. I had originally hoped 30p this year but lets walk before we can run. However. Expand to 50koz - 75koz+ production in 1-2 years time and we will be more in the 30p-50p area. With a whole second mine (Akrokeri) not factored into those numbers. There is really not a lot not to like about this share and patience is the only thing required now. I don't even think we have long to wait. I am expecting solid news at least in the next 2 months - remaining in the quarter. GLA

Sorry couldn't resist :) Shareprice will be a tenner in new money post consolidation when we hit my lofty 50p target in old money! Bring it on. GLA

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2022/horizonte-minerals-plc-notice-of-agm/
£1 shareprice incoming!

SJ, we're listed on AIM but that's about it. Glencore are the biggest miner on the planet and own 10%. Orion and La Mancha are big big big players. And we have 4m tonnes of nickel in the ground and as Lawrence keeps pointing out at least two Tier 1 resources. In 18 months if timescales are to be believed we will be commissioning our first mine. Our market cap at that point could be anything around £0.5bn. There are different companies listed on AIM some are still drilling holes or trying to buy resources, others are on their way to becoming significant producers of the commodity they are interested in. We might not make it - we might get bought it has to be a significant risk of that granted. But I don't think we will stay on AIM particularly if we go joint funding on Vermelho. GLA