Member Info for wasarunner

My feeling is 5.5m warrants representing less than 1% of issued share capital are not worth not progressing our newsflow and not getting £833k on the balance sheet for - even if kb sells the warrant shares post conversion it will be a temporary drag on sp and with sufficient news we should be able to absorb it. 5.5m shares at say 4p would be ~£200k although liquidity is low it can be done in a few weeks. So I think co should be racing to try and get sp to 3.5-4p before warrant expiry and to do that clearly we need news. That's why if I was a trader (I am not) I would buy on this technical warrant event with 2 month timeframe on the trade - buy 2.5p sell 3.5p. As an investor I can moan that the trader buys now and dumps in 2 months time or I can be grateful that such trades help lift the sp above the warrant price, get the £833k onto the B/S and get us that much closer to a financed mine which as an investor is all I should really care about. Gla

A2 can be financed from fcf with no dilution at $14k/t. Where did I hear that? From the cfo. Twice.

What's happening here is structural deficit in a metal that is hard to mine sufficiently efficiently (despite plenty in the earth's crust) to make it economically viable, combined with China's insistence to flood the market with cheap of the same during a 10 year timeframe when opex, fuelled by cheap non esg coal, was cheap. Now that nearly 0 of those factors apply, and the fact Horizonte will be lowest quartile cost producer using esg compatible 'fixed cost' hydro power to produce next gen metals, we are correctly positioned thank you (steps off high horse). A bargain at 5p IMO and if I had any funds which weren't already more underwater I would be sure to take advantage. Gla

SJ good to hear from you thought you were shunning us :) I think in the case of Armadale its simple actually - we were already cheap (1/6th valuation of BKT for example) so the higher valued cos, despite their attractions and progress have further to fall. As investors we probably concentrate on individual cos too much but in terms of valuation macro is really important too. I thought we were just over Covid then Putin decides he'a bored. I am not saying its going to be easy for Armadale - I wish we had 'inflation ringfenced' finance in the bag but graphite will be in demand war/no war and recession/no recession. One thing for sure if you put your money in a savings acct it will lose 10% in next 12 months.

I've had a long running thing with my friend about EUA. I kept telling him one day Horizonte would be priced the same as EUA (having switched in my case all funds from EUA to Horizonte). What I never considered that (in old money) both would be around the 5p mark! In the case of EUA perhaps justified perhaps not (I don't follow it any more), in the case of Horizonte this is really carp markets for you, no way we should be down here. Just goes to show it's very difficult to call the ebbs and flows of wider markets I would hate to be a trader. Now how's that mine build going.....

Yes with the warrants there could be forward selling shares to raise cash to buy them. And also the warrant shares once converted could be sold which further drags the price. It's moot at the moment because they won't convert at the current share price.

I'm not sure how many were remaining but I think the company would prefer the £833k on the balance sheet especially in the current macro than not. Otherwise they have to raise this amount via other means and will they get same terms.

Contrarian view is because KB has 5.5m warrants in this round MB starves him of the sp to convert as he knows he will sell the shares anyway. But my feeling is they wpuld rather the £833k than not. MB also has warrants in this round.

Regarding posting after beers we've all done it I'm sure I said stuff I didn't mean to. I share frustrations if thats any consolation and not just on this stock. The market is bad bad bad at the moment though we all need to feel that. At some point that turns too.

IsleworthSpy no harm done. I haven't spoken to him on many occasions maybe 3 or 4. I know he can't say much at the moment. I actually prefer it if there is a real rns coming with actual news then we dont need a holding rns. That's my hope anyway. It's a tricky one the holding rns because they could be trying to get material progress over the line then holding rns does more harm than good sometimes people interpret it as nothing will happen here and the traders sell down even more. I have my eye on September warrants and the fact the company will want these converted as a ticking clock now we're approaching mid July. News in next 6 weeks latest hopefully.

sorry 'niche' investment not 'nice' investment :)

I don't know the composition of the shareholder register because not many positions are declared but I know this. In May 2020 the company issued 24m shares and raised £550k (I participated in this raise) at a shareprice which was then around the open market price. That means that it is possible to issue 5% of the company to HNWI so it shouldn't really surprise people that, though this might be a 'nice' investment, there might be some holders with decent total holdings onboard. It's not like half the shares are in II hands and somebody must have bought Kabunga's stake (I bought plenty).

I wouldn't want to issue a TR1 indeed I didn't realise my personal holding (you can infer I am 'a' on the list) is nearer to 3% than I realised. Not that I will have more funds and hopefully if the September warrants get converted problem goes away.

The SP needs to be 3.5-4p I reckon for the September warrants to convert. MB knows this. If he wants that cash in the company he needs to release news in the next couple of months that gets it there. That would be as good a reason as any to buy at the moment, IMO.

"Armadale Capital plc (LON: ACP), the AIM quoted investment group focused on natural resource projects in Africa is pleased to announce that is has raised £550,000 via a private subscription with certain existing high-net worth shareholders in the Company (the ‘Subscription’).

As part of the Subscription, 24,444,444 new ordinary shares (‘Ordinary Shares’)(‘Subscription Shares’) in the Company will be issued at a price of 2.25 pence per Ordinary Share representing a 4.65% premium to the closing mid-market price on 29 April 2020"

Also my portfolio is 64% value of its high and for me personally the 36% is a big number. Do I like it? No. Am I panicking? No, because I've been in the past lower % of total invested and things came good. Warren Buffet says you have to ride 50% if you want to succeed in this game, traders of course see it differently, but with an investors mindset I think he's right. He has the stripes to prove it. Until I see something fundamental change here there is no panic for me just frustration it is taking long and, like everybody else who posts on this board, I would like to see news too to reassure me that we are progressing towards eventual mine build.

My holdings:
a trading: 6325150
a isa 9591985
b trading 3940017
b isa 499226
c isa 704072
d isa 1172351
e isa 1172351
total 23405152

Or, I could have made it up but what's the point. My holding doesn't matter, what matters is MB owns 10% and will want to maximise the return on that.

You're damned if you do you're damned of you don't. I try to post positive information to boards perhaps I am in a fortunate position MB answers my call perhaps because of my holding. I speak to directors of all three of my main holdings from time to time because I find it helps me make investment decisions. I don't know the outcome here and I don't know what MB is thinking right now because he is being tight lipped, perhaps things aren't going well or perhaps they are but he won't say. So you have to make your own decisions.

Market is shot that must be obvious, sentiment is shot on AIM generally very worthwhile investments are well down on their highs - Horizonte is 5.5p equivalent and it has been 10p pre finance and now it has $630m. Of course it doesn't help here that we have had no news hence we're down to less than half the peak valuation. There's a war in Europe, a global recession coming, flight to safety strong dollar commodities falling. You have to ride the rough with the smooth.

It's impossible to prove shareholdings. I bought just under £50k the other week. I started on Monday with £25k. Think last week or week before that I lose track. I am generally going to switch off from markets now I am fully invested with no future funds to add and try and wait out better times. I got quite a busy job now and am focussed on other things like pulling together some capital to buy a house. I will follow up with MB once he has released news as he won't tell me anything more than he told me 6-7 weeks ago now because -> he can't even if something has moved on. Lets hope we get news over the summer at some point.

You have to make your own decisions I just highlight why I buy shares people can ignore me. I think graphite is a thing (in the next 5 years) I think Armadale mine will get developed I see sufficient progress in that direction (BKT, we have a mine director etc.etc.) does it take a long time, sadly yes, longer than I hoped, but I remain invested. I was going to use some ACP to try and pull together money to buy a house but it is taking so long so I have to look elsewhere for those funds. It's best to see these kinds of investments as a long term thing and not need the money soon that's what I found with Horizonte which I've held for 4 years now and have to hold another couple of years till they have a mine built. GLA

What else can they do they need the road? I assumed the various miners in the area might do a deal to share cost but apparently a better strategy is to wait for your neighbour to build it for you.

He told me, I don't know how distributed his network is but assume these are mostly in Oz. I'm sure that number changes but his personal holding is of course declared.
I hold now just a fraction under 4% when I include family and 2.7% individually. Didn't realise my personal holding was so much I've never done a TR1 before might be an opportunity if it stays cheap!

Just on the wider market malaise and what is causing the drop here (and nickel price of course recently). There are fears of course of financial tightening and recession (and inflationary pressure) and this may play out and in a short timeframe commodities may over react they often do (in both directions, we saw that on the recent spike up on nickel). But nothing is going to undo the underlying narrative that we are moving towards a greener future where these metals become critical to that transition and to another extent commodities longer term are an anti inflationary investment. Shorter term then you want to be bottom quartile on cost producer which we are and I think it was pickedpeck pointed out our cost on the hydro for the plant (which I think is one of the significant input opex costs) will be very favourable against Indonesian producers who use coal where the input price has risen dramatically. In summary - I think nickel should be OK medium-longer term, Horizonte with a decent cost base should do well. I was critical of course of the fact we were unaware that $630m was needed but in the current inflationary environment it now seems very good business indeed (obviously we all wanted more debt less equity). It shows prudence on the part of the lenders was probably justified in this case, to insist on that capex/contingency raise.

The above is why I consider this the safer of my investments but it still needs the company to build a working mine on budget (and hopefully within the envisaged timeframes) which is never trivial, and never completely risk free.

Agree, hence I positioned in 3 and one is gold which is normally anti cyclic. Not saying at all that it is without risk but I would be more worried if a. Original capex wasn't $40m (still a decent chunk, but its not $400m) and mb and family and friends didn't hold 25%. The former means its financeable the latter means he doesn't want to dilute much if he can help it. But yes agree many bod's don't care about pi's so you have to make your own luck in this game.

The fact graphite will be big in the next few years is why I am here. And there should be a geo political fight over commodities it has already started with oil, for now, which will drive prices up. The macro is good for commodities almost with/without recession, especially in 'green' materials. What else to invest in because you sure as hell don't want to hold £s (probably not property either, at least short term). China will want to continue resource monopoly too and we are likely to get a deal with Chinese company.

Reality is Armadale could be a $bn asset current mcap £15m so you need to make a judgement as to the probability that it will materialise as not all juniors go on to fulfil their potential (indeed most don't?)

Possibly but that created opportunity for PIs to add at sub-par valuations (and by sub par I mean for e.g. compare to BKT). We had a parallel situation with Horizonte where City Financial, then Richard Griffiths then Morgan Stanley sold up. I bought shares all along the way (not all the shares obvoiusly) as I have done here with KB selling. If the company eventually delivers, you have to see this as an opportunity and if you come into money gradually, as I have, then elongated buy window is what you want. Appreciate we all (including me) want the mine bulit sooner than later but I owe both KB and MB if this now goes ahead and gets build, the former for the lower entry, the latter for the eventual delivery.
In terms of timescales it hasn't been plain sailing for any junior miner in the last couple of years and in Tanzania we have seen president change with Covid.

And in case this isn't obvoius. Armadale are applying for the extra exploration licences to facilitate a $$$ sale above the value of the current proven resource - otherwise why would a junior spend money on exploratoin when it already has sufficient proven resource to develop. It's obvious really. They build the (first) mine, prove additional resource sell (probably to the Chinese probably people they are talking to right now). Guesswork on my part but join the dots. Huge demand for Graphite coming. GLA

Amtech just to qualify with an example from my investments: Jeremy Martin was appointed CEO of Horizonte in 2010 and have developed the asset(s) since that date and hope to have a mine built end 2023 early 2024. The mine isn't in Africa so no Africa factor. They strongly (the BOD of Horizonte) believe it is a chance of a lifetime also - enough so that the CEO has stayed 14 years (albeit on a decent salary), proven the resource, and secured $630m funding. The time for nickel is right now +/- 5 years. The time for Graphite is righ now +/- 5 years. Matt Bull knows this Jeremey Martin knows this, what the example above shows is -> the outcome takes time, in the case of Horizonte probably 14-15 years since CEO joined to when it gets sold. Very different companies, JM is very well remunerated for his effors, MB will be renumerated when his 10% delivers his $$$. Personally expect both companies to sell eventually, perhaps in the same timeframes. But saying these things don't take time or take forever -> in the case of a quantum shift of demand for a particular commodity/commodities - it is really true that this happens once in a lifetime. By the time people figure out high grade nickel/graphite is in demand and scarce all the companies like Horizonte and Armadale will have been sold to the highest bidder. NOW is the time to be invested, whatever our frustrations, and always given that you trust the BOD to deliver. GLA