Member Info for wasarunner

Think with this opportunity you have to weigh up your timeframe. Blackrock will hopefully start building around q4 this year maybe finish by end h1 2024 18 month build. Assuming we can build our smaller mine in parallel we might be looking at earliest production mid 2024. I am comfortable with this timeline indeed up to a year later, others won't be as we all thought it would be sooner. I don't see us producing till 2024 so you have to think 2-3yr+ investment here.

I would be disappointed with less than 10p eventually and hopefully much more like 15-20p+ post production. Thats 10bag possibility but it depends heavuly on terms we get on equity finance obviously. Gla

Positives:
Resource
IRR
Low capex
£2m in bank runway to financing
Neutral:
Waiting for Tanz to figure out how to manage graphite miners (agree gov %)
Waiting for our larger neighbour to construct infrastructure we can use to save capex but elongate timelines
Negatives:
Comms
Light BOD (missing key role eg FD)
Taking an age but also due to factors above

Challenges also an opportunity - sp is on its arse new investor is buying the bottom. Challenge for thr BOD to raise the sp before inevitable eqiluity portion of finance but if thry manage it you bag multi before we even built the mine.

Disclaimer: family and I own 4% so perhaps biased. I think mine gets built and added recently.

Drilling RNS. Nice to see we have a 24-50g/t+ gold mine to drill as well as the 1g/t+ mine we are already mining . Good place to be invested IMO.

You couldn't really plan it better if you tried - secure finance with low interest rates pre recession, build mine for 2 years during a 2 year recession, start producing into global recovery. Master tactitians our BOD!

So what I can see on this site £28k traded (15 min delayed) maybe a few more has moved us 15%+. It's a tightly held share of course the main investors hold the bulk then there will be some like me who have never (yet) sold any.

I got £24k over two days a couple of weeks ago and moved it 5.5p -> 6.3p. There will of course always be sellers but the main thing is the newsflow from the company being good will mean people will want to hold this long term for the jam to come. First target back to the 10p area unless Akrokeri news is stunning then who knows. GLA

They probably want Akrokeri producing a lot earlier I just don't know how long funding/DFS/build mine takes as I was a latecomer to Goldstone so erring on the cautious side... that will be a good question for once they have drill results out. We're nearly into 2023 now once they have drill results on Akrokeri...

All my shares will always make loads of money in 12-18 months that's the problem then the 12-18 months always moves back a year (or three) :) But I know what you mean. End goal matters more to me that how long it takes to get there as when I considered Goldstone as an investment opportunity I saw it as an income generating share. Capital growth is nice and they have openly stated they want to expand the assets. Most recently I thought first divi 2024 so if it can come a year earlier bring it on. I'm not expecting a big one as frankly there is a load of expanding they need to do but any divi in 2023 will show intent and should be well received. At the end of the day we invest in companies for earnings and it is an efficient way for the stakeholders to get paid.

So looking at a timeline to 2025 something like: 2022 Homase 14koz, 2023 Homase 20-25koz, 2024 Homase 30-40koz, 2025 Homase 50koz. 2022 drill Akrokeri, 2023 fund Akrokeri, 2023/2024 build Akrokeri starts producing properly 2025

We could have ourselves a £250m+ mcap company if gold price plays ball. Todays mcap is £30m. Lets see how it plays out...

Portman thanks for the update. Just on Akrokeri - I am sure they will have more than an inkling but - it is fair and proper that they qualify news properly so not rush out a 'we think there's loads of gold here' type RNS. Let the drilling do the talking. Paracle converting the loan at 6.55p a share really seals what Bill Trew thinks of the opportunity and was a clear signal for me. Very happy to be holding here and if they think a dividend can be paid in 2023 then all the better.

Thanks guys good update. Lots to look forward to. On track for production at latest guidance this year and recovery rates are there or thereabouts. Yes it took longer than we hoped to get here and inflationary headwinds I guess but hopefully gold price starts moving soon to compensate. Virtually debt free means fcf = expansion or divis to come. Gla

"ROCE is calculated by dividing a company's earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) by its capital employed"

Please explain where Horizonte's earnings are coming from this year? If you don't produce anything, earnings is 0, ROCE is 0. Where do you pluck 3000% from? (don't answer that question I already know...)

14:03:21
1.8555
1,340,583
Sell*
1.90
2.30
24.87k

A big dump....

Duly passed.

Also, on price - volume is pitiful. Small sells are dropping it because there isn't buying. This has a disproportionate impact on people's psyche because they look at the headline 4.88% drop and go bugger we're worth 5% less than yesterday (that's around £750k off our mcap?) But if I had a spare £10k I could get it back to 2.2p and add another £1m back to mcap. Clearly, that is all nuts and so should be treated with a pinch of salt. What matters is what ACP are doing behind the scenes and whether it gets a mine built eventually.

haha I doubt anyone bought at 10p and neither are we likely to drop to 1p but I get what you mean.

On timescales all I can say is things change. This was from Horizonte's licence award RNS dated 14/01/19:

"After receiving the Preliminary Environmental Licence ("LP") in 2016, concluding the FS in October 2018 and filing of the FS on SEDAR in December 2018, the receipt of the LI allows the Company to undertake construction activities for the Araguaia project."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/construction-licence-awarded-for-araguaia-project-hl6sp67gegkmqzw.html

Great I thought. We'll be building a mine this year (year being 2019). They started building the mine around 3 1/4 years later....Q2 2022. Did they mislead investors? No, Covid and a whole bunch of other things happened in the interim. It's an imprecise science getting a junior miner through feasibility, finance and construction and depends on a huge range of factors.

For me, graphite demand isn't going away, BKT here are leading the way and we will follow, in our own time. You buys your tickets today (or earlier or later) or you take cash elsewhere and buy some other opportunity. Will we drop further? Is todays price a good price? Time will tell I don't know the answer but I will remain invested and add where possible. GLA

true, but electric cars didn't exist and nickel was at rock bottom I think, or just about to go there... I would imagine with what's coming we will get a lot more for it than the ~$10m Horizonte paid...

I'm guessing the DFS could show optionality and maybe that's the way it will be done. It would price a mine Horizonte could theoretically build, but show capability of expansion to a larger size that a major would want. Maybe a 25kt + 25kt mine.

It'll make a big difference to the sale price. Shovel ready 50kt DFS, battery grade etc.etc.

I guess one reason not to do it would be if it is much more expensive to do the DFS...

Anyone think the DFS should price a bigger mine? If you know you aren't going to build it yourselves, why not design one a major would get interested in. Or, do you have to price it as if you are going to build it yourselves because it's the only way market gives you value for it? I'm thinking something along the 50kt area instead of the 30kt the PFS priced up.

DanInvestor good post. September warrants are interesting - I assumed we wanted £700k or whatever it is on the balance sheet but maybe we don't need it and board thinks we can get better terms higher up near to financing. Of course, doesn't stop MB taking up his allocation which would be a positive signal. I would imagine £30k isn't a biggie for him. Will KB take up his allocation? Perhaps, even though we are below the warrant price - if he thinks it is going higher in time why not.

Looking further ahead - there is absolutely no doubt that the company is being run on the lean side, I get that from talking to MB. Hence if there is a big benefit in waiting for BKT to build infrastructure he will do it. If it's that or raise another £5-10m equity to finance, and the cost is a year, it makes sense. That could be an additional 50% dilution saved. I know that's the way he thinks.

It could take longer I agree. But somewhere around 2024-25 we will be producing I think. Will the same investors be invested here, maybe maybe not I suspect there will be plenty of exit points along the way post finance people will be able to recover their money (with interest) albeit the jam should be at production.

I'm at a really similar point with Horizonte just as an analogy. I got cheaper shares sure but many of mine were bought at the 4-4.5p range (currently trading at 5p in old money). It will be significantly higher when the mine is built, in 2-3 years and producing, maybe 15-20-30p. Armadale is now at 2.2p (stupid cheap). It should be 5p at least. Likewise mine built 2-3 years and producing I expect 10-15-20p. Unfortunately both will take longer than I hoped but that's markets for you if you want 5x, unless you get lucky with covid/crypto stocks (I nearly did!) or an EUA type scenario you have to wait your time.

I'm as near as I can be to certain that both stocks will 5x in 3 years from current levels. That's a damn good return on any serious capital invested but patience is the key and patience isn't easy. I now have roughly similar in both stocks invested but expect Armadale has the higher long term potential upside (from 2.2p anyway) as I think Horizonte will be taken out earlier whereas Armadale may stay off the buyers radar a little longer. GLA